Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM   Moonset 4:34 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1016 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this evening, then chance of showers after midnight.Mon - W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds, becoming se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms after midnight. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1016 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure slides south of the area as a weak disturbance moves through tonight and into the beginning of Monday. High pressure then builds back across the area Monday night, lingering through mid- week before heading out into the atlantic for the latter half of the week. A series of frontal system then approaches from the west Thursday through next weekend.

FXUS61 KBGM 030425 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1225 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday. The first half of the week will be warm and shower chances will increase midweek as the next system approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1225 AM Update...

PoPs were expanded to cover the spotty showers across the Twin Tiers and up north into southern Onondaga and Madison Counties.
Farther west, some observations are beginning to report fog, so we will be watching to see how it develops in our region early this morning.

950 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to temperatures/dew points and PoPs as showers continue to gradually taper off. Did expand the coverage of patchy fog a bit more for early tomorrow morning, mainly toward the southern Finger Lakes area.

645 PM Update...

Took PoPs up across CNY the next few hours with a more defined area of showers moving through. The NAMNest has a pretty good handle on what is currently on radar so did blend some of that into the forecast through the rest of the evening. Adjusted dew points as they were currently running lower than what was being observed and blended in the NBM 90th percentile through much of the night to give them a bit of a boost.

325 PM Update...

A weak frontal system is pushing in from the west this afternoon and some light rain showers will be possible through this evening. However, very dry conditions in the mid levels will limit rainfall from reaching the ground and VIRGA has been reported at a few locations already this afternoon.
Very little instability is currently present as mid and upper level clouds have limited heating today, so decided to remove thunderstorms from the forecast this afternoon.

Overnight, showers will continue until just before midnight. Low level moisture advection will continue overnight and this will likely lead to some valley fog developing, especially in any areas that do see showers this afternoon and evening. Temperatures tonight will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but a weak shortwave pushes in from the NW tomorrow afternoon, and although a cap will likely exist, this may be enough to kick off a few isolated thunderstorms during peak heating in the afternoon.
The best chance will be over the terrain areas of the Catskills and Poconos as orographic lift may provide enough boost to break through the cap. Most of the area will stay dry and see mostly sunny skies. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Any showers and thunderstorms will dissipate around sunset. Tomorrow night will remain warm with lows only falling into the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM Update...

A cooling trend begins Tuesday as a slow-moving upper-level low from Canada slowly marches towards Central NY and NE PA.
Temperatures will decrease from the low- to mid-80s Tuesday to high-70s to low-80s Wednesday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before the aforementioned system swings down into the Great Lakes region, bringing heavier rain showers Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of flash flooding) for Wednesday night, with QPF values up to half an inch of rainfall overnight Wednesday through early Thursday morning. We'll keep monitoring the changes in guidance as we get closer to mid-week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
220 PM Update...

The slow-moving upper-level low spins just north of the region and goes quasi-stationary there through the rest of the long- term period. The cooling trend from mid-week continues into the weekend, with temperatures falling from mid- to high-70s Thursday to the high-60s to low-70s Saturday. It'll be quite the unsettled pattern with chances for rain showers during the entire stretch from Thursday to Saturday, with chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of flash flooding) for Thursday; it wouldn't be surprising if this continued through the rest of the week due to the unsettled pattern. It's difficult to pinpoint how much rainfall we may receive this upcoming week since different long- term models suggest the center of the system to be in different positions every day of the long-term, which can influence the amount of rainfall an area could receive. For now, we'll continue to monitor how long-term guidance shifts over the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are in place at all terminals despite showers currently moving through CNY. Showers are expected to be light enough through the rest of this evening to not result in any restrictions. While most showers are expected to taper off around 03-04Z, an isolated shower or two may still linger in the area through 08-10Z. However, with the shower activity ending in most places, conditions are expected to be favorable for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance continues to favor ELM in particular for IFR or worse conditions. Although confidence is still lower at ITH and BGM for fog, with rainfall occurring at both ITH and BGM this evening it does make it a bit more favorable, so TEMPO groups for IFR visibilities were added between 09-12Z. Any fog that develops will likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could be some lingering low ceilings before VFR conditions return to all terminals.

Isolated afternoon showers or even a thunderstorm are possible after 18Z tomorrow, with AVP having the best chance of seeing anything spotty, so this will be monitored for potentially brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front approaches.

Friday...additional shower chances and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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