Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 3:50 PM

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LEZ144 Expires:202406012015;;254143 Fzus51 Kcle 011323 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 923 am edt Sat jun 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-012015- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 923 am edt Sat jun 1 2024
This afternoon - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - East winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees, off cleveland 62 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 020200 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1000 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area on Sunday. It will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday. An unsettled pattern will then develop for mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Evening update...
Periods of rain continue to move across the area this evening with varying amounts of intensity. In the "heavier" corridors across portions of eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio, up to a half inch of rain has been observed. Elsewhere, around a tenth of inch is being observed. With the rain, winds and wind gusts did ramp up a little with some 25 mph winds observed. This is likely due to rain induced boundary layer mixing stronger low level flow to the surface. Outside the areas of rain, winds are between 5-10 mph. The shortwave feature mentioned below remains off to the southwest, so will continue higher PoPs for the next few hours. Then, forcing becomes more limited and rain activity becomes more showery in nature. Reduced thunderstorm mention to the southwest late into the overnight as some elevated instability builds during the early morning. Forcing remains weak so thunderstorm coverage will still be quite limited.

Can't rule out some patchy fog across portions of eastern Indiana / southwestern Ohio / northern Kentucky, but this should be limited due to widespread stratus.

Previous discussion... Short wave emerging out of the mid Mississippi Valley will weaken and broaden as it heads east overnight. Large area of showers extending from Michigan to middle Tennessee will spread into the area late this afternoon and this evening. But with time expect coverage to decrease as forcing weakens. Some showers will continue into the late night.
Instability is pretty marginal and there has been very little lightning upstream. Cannot rule out some embedded thunder, but it seems like a fairly remote chance at this point. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Lingering mid level troughing will be slow to exit, perhaps not getting east of the area until Sunday evening. Meanwhile, an ill defined front will push into western counties during the day.
This will stall and eventually wash out. Forcing overall will be weak, but there will be plenty of low level moisture in place.
So there will continue to be some showers about the region although they should be isolated to scattered.

There is some question about how quickly low clouds may decrease.
Consensus seems to be that there will be some improvement in the afternoon although the possibility of it remaining mostly cloudy cannot be ruled out. If there are sufficient breaks to allow for some heating, then some instability may develop which could allow for a few thunderstorms, if anything develops along the diffuse boundary. Any remaining showers will diminish Sunday evening.

Highs will be dependent on cloud cover with the current forecast indicating mid 70s, a bit cooler in the east and a bit warmer in the west. Lows will once again fall into the lower 60s most areas.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The Ohio Valley will be between weather systems to start the work week on Monday. Upper level flow is modeled to be almost non- existent and the surface pressure gradient is weak. Rain chances are expected to be around 20% or less. Forecast highs are in the lower 80s with weak southerly flow in place. This stagnant setup continues into Monday night although rain chances may increase toward late evening with weak diurnal instability. Forecast lows fall into the middle 60s.

The synoptic setup begins to become more dynamic Tuesday and especially into Wednesday. By Wednesday, an upper level trough and surface cold front are expected to be diving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. These approaching disturbances should initially help to increase southerly flow ahead of them on Tuesday into Tuesday night which corresponds with increasing PWATs. Chances for rain do exist on during this Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe although instability and shear remains very weak. Better chances for showers and storms will likely be on Wednesday ahead of the front when better forcing overlaps with moisture, instability, and shear.

Temperatures and rain chances drop behind the cold front at some point on Wednesday/Wednesday night when winds shift to the west and broad upper level troughing develops over the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures are forecast to remain below average with anomalous upper level troughing persisting through the end of the week. Rain chances will increase again Thursday/Thursday night when a second cold front moves through the area.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Periods of light rain have occurred at several TAF sites with rain light enough to prevent the onset of MVFR restrictions.
Can't rule out pockets of locally heavy rainfall, leading to brief periods of sub-VFR restrictions. However, pushed back onset of MVFR in the predominant groups by a couple of hours based on this trend and observations to the west. Still expect lower levels will moisten resulting in ceilings falling into MVFR/IFR restrictions along with some MVFR VIS.

After 12Z, can't rule out some lingering showers, but the main theme will be continued CIG restrictions into the early afternoon (17-20Z). Expecting some gradual improvement through the late afternoon, but confidence is low in how quickly restrictions clear back to VFR.

Can't rule out scattered thunderstorm activity late Sunday afternoon and evening, but the overall lack of coverage warranted leaving mention out of the TAF for now.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs /VIS possible Sunday night and Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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