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LMZ745 Expires:202406030315;;328581 Fzus53 Klot 021954 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 254 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-030315- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 254 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves around 1 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

LMZ700
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FXUS63 KIWX 022304 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 704 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and slightly less humid through Monday.

- Low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Cooler with lingering showers Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An overall active pattern is expected through the forecast period with brief lulls in between each key feature.

A "cool" front has nearly cleared the forecast area with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 in its wake and low to mid 60s ahead of it. Cloud cover has been stubborn to depart even with increasing subsidence. Sufficient convergence and modest instability has allowed for a few showers to develop in far southeast area which will quickly exit by 4 pm. The cloud cover sticking around leads to a more uncertain forecast in whether fog will develop across the area. Considered adding a patchy fog mention given cross-over temps should be exceeded and plenty of low level moisture remains. Will defer to the evening shift to monitor trends.

A northern stream closed low, currently located off the NW US coast, will move east through the first half of the week, brining an eventual shift in our pattern. Prior to that, shower/storm chances will be modulated by poorly modeled, subtle disturbances that may largely be convectively induced (MCVs). Greatest plume of higher theta-e air will reside just to our west with the nose of it intruding on far NW areas Monday evening before spreading slowly east Tuesday. Models handle convective chances in multiple ways, none of which seem to suggest more than chc pops Mon night into Tuesday with no threat for severe weather.

Models are in agreement on the aforementioned upper level low moving to northern ND by 00Z Wed with the longwave trough digging further into Great Lakes by 18Z Wed. The closed low itself will actual shift northward somewhat, keeping the strongest dynamics well removed from the area. A cold front is still expected to sweep through Tuesday night into Wednesday with good chances for what should be non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Abundant moisture will lead to pockets of heavy rainfall with hydro trends needing to be monitored.

Beyond Wednesday, medium range models then diverge on handling of the southward shift of the upper low over the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period. These discrepancies are posing challenges in not only forecasted temperatures but timing of periodic shower chances. The result is a splattering of slgt chc to chc pops through the end of the forecast with highs near or below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

With both TAF sites now behind the cool frontal passage, winds have trended lower and cigs have begun to lift and KSBN already has clearing skies. With better radiational cooling conditions and still fairly moist low levels, dew points in upper 50s currently, overnight even with some drier air moving into the region dew point depressions will be small. Some patchy ground fog will be possible overnight and did continue to message vsbys down to around 3SM in mist. However, confidence in coverage is lacking. VFR conditions expected after 13-14z Mon for both TAF sites.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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