Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM   Moonset 3:27 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202406022115;;316047 Fzus51 Kbuf 021457 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1057 am edt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-022115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1057 am edt Sun jun 2 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers early this afternoon. Showers likely late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 61 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 021346 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 946 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today across a majority of the region. The first half of the week will warmer and mostly quiet but isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Shower chances increase midweek as the next system approaches the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

945 AM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and only made some minor changes to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.

615 AM Update...

For this update, there were some minor changes to PoPs to be within better collaboration of some neighboring offices. The main area of focus western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Some of the 06z guidance came in with showers lingering there longer than originally forecasted. Some of the updated guidance also maintain showers into far eastern portions of our CWA before fizzling out. It was decided to not increase PoPs further east quite yet as coverage still looks more isolated by then.

330 AM Update...

The quiet conditions will come to an end today as high pressure moves east out of the region and a shortwave trough moves in from the west. Drier conditions will hold on through the morning and early afternoon hours, especially as precipitation struggles to overcome the dry air initially. Eventually, scattered showers will develop by mid-afternoon across CNY and portions of the Northern Tier of PA. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. MLCAPE values will be less than 300 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear is around 20 kts, so strong storms are not expected. NAM guidance has higher instability but given the increasing sky cover through the morning hours, conditions should not become too unstable. Temperatures today will max out in the 70s with a few valley locations near 80. With decreasing heights, increasing cloud cover, and showers moving in, today's forecasted temperatures were lowered below most guidance using a blend of the NBM, NBM tenth percentile, NAM, and Conshort.
As rain moves in, temperatures will also likely begin to cool prior to sunset.

Overnight, thunderstorm chances diminish but showers continue. The Catskills and NEPA will have the best chance for showers, though isolated showers will be possible up into the Southern Tier.
While model soundings do not show much for an inversion tonight, patchy fog will be possible. Low-level moisture will remain present, the ground will be wet, and winds will be light which all combined should help aid in the development of patchy, valley fog or at least low stratus. Temperatures tonight will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but weak waves look to kick off some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance are showing more instability compared to today but shear will still be weak. There is some uncertainty where showers will pop up but this forecast favored short-range guidance for PoPs, which is mainly limited to NEPA and far western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.
Most of CNY will stay dry and will see mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will trend warmer to start the week as the ridge builds in. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
425 AM Update

This period starts off with mainly quiet, dry and warm weather Monday night and Tuesday under mid/upper level ridging. With just enough moisture and instability around, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures will be summerlike, with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s.

The pattern then turns slightly more active, with model guidance showing some potential for weak waves to roll through Tuesday night and Wednesday. These weak shortwaves could initiate a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms...with chances increasing especially Wednesday afternoon/evening. Wednesday will be about 3-5 degrees cooler than Tuesday; with more clouds and moisture around. Latest guidance is speeding up the next, more significant frontal boundary. Updated the forecast to bring likely showers and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night with this frontal system. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60, which will feel a bit muggy. Dew points and PWATS rise overnight, reaching the low to mid-60s and around 1.75 inches, respectively. WPC is indicating a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in this period, and this will be something to watch as we get closer in time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
435 AM Update

A complex and active forecast in the long term period as a large, slow moving, closed off upper level low slowly slides eastward over the region.

After some lingering morning rain and t'storms, the latest guidance is hinting at a brief dry slot sometime on Thursday...exact timing remains uncertain this far out. However, as this brief dry slot moves in, skies could partially clear and the NBM guidance is indicating temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. As the upper level low approaches, things look to quickly destabilize in the afternoon with numerous showers and t'storms developing once again.

Heading into Friday, Saturday and Sunday the upper level low continues to spin nearby (ECMWF) or nearly overhead (GFS).
Details remain uncertain in regards to the exact position and timing of this upper level low this far out in time. However, this weather pattern certainty will keep things partly to mostly clouds with periods of showers and even a few thunderstorms around. There will of course be some drier periods as well, especially at night as the daytime heating driven instability decreases. In collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to lower PoPs below what NBM was suggesting (likely) and into the high chance, or scattered category for these three days...again due to uncertainty in how this will all play out.
Temperatures are steady, with daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s all three days and overnight lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals throughout this TAF period. A weak system will bring showers to the region. The best chances will be at ELM, BGM, ITH, and SYR though no restrictions are expected as these showers are expected to be fairly light. As showers move out of these terminals after 00z tonight, conditions will become favorable for fog to develop.
Guidance was favoring ELM, BGM, and ITH with restrictions. The highest confidence was at ELM where LIFR restrictions are expected. There is a bit more uncertainty at BGM and ITH, so tempo groups were added there. Any fog that develops will likely lift just prior to 12z tomorrow but there could be some lingering low ceilings.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday... increasing chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front approaches.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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