Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 4:13 PM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Through early evening - East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves nearly calm. Tonight - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Monday - Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Monday night - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering south late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Slight chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
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FXUS63 KMKX 021551 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1051 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm/muggy conditions prevail for the first half of this week.
Quiet weather today, but multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern Wisconsin for the second half of this week.

UPDATE
Issued 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The fog dissipated by 9 AM so the dense fog advy was allowed to expire. Widespread stratus is starting to break apart, especially toward east central WI and over the lakes in Madison.
The ACARS soundings show a very thin moist layer that proves the cloud layer is thin. Therefore, expect a quick transition to sunny skies between noon and 1 PM today. High clouds will start to move in through the afternoon.

Cronce

SHORT TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today and Tonight:

METARs continue to report areas of fog reducing visibility to 1/4 SM across many areas of the CWA at this time, with far southeastern counties (some of which have been excluded from the Dense Fog Advisory) mainly observing low stratus clouds and patchy / less dense fog. The fog and low stratus should begin to lift gradually after sunrise, leaving most areas free of fog by around 9 AM. This will leave us with dry / pleasant weather and partly cloudy skies (decreasing diurnal Cu coverage, thin / high altitude clouds approaching) for the remainder of the day.
Daytime highs in the upper 70s expected inland, with a gentle east breeze off Lake Michigan keeping lakeshore counties in the mid 70s to mid 60s. Increasing cloud coverage late tonight should help prevent fog redevelopment. Showers and thunderstorms hold off until Monday morning.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday through Saturday:

A shortwave trough arrives on Monday, enhancing southerly WAA and bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (70% precip chance). Most high-res model guidance suggests a west to east arrival Monday morning, initially with scattered to isolated storm coverage, followed by numerous / more intense storms enhanced by daytime heating in the afternoon. Though the shortwave trough could pack over 50 kts of deep shear, it's axis would move over Lake Michigan by peak daytime heating (timing is not ideal for storm organization). The severe weather threat is conditionally dependent on the exact arrival time of the shortwave, and how rapidly we lose wind shear / mid level lapse rates on the back side. MLCAPE of roughly 1000 joules is expected south of the shortwave, so there is sufficient instability for some severe storms if the rest of the ingredients align.

Another batch of showers and storms is expected Tuesday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours (60 to 80% precip chances). A cold front arrives early Wednesday, with winds veering west and shower / storm chances gradually decreasing. Cooler / drier air advecting behind the cold front should allow for mostly dry weather for the second half of this week into the weekend.

Sheppard

AVIATION
Issued 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The fog dissipated by mid morning. Widespread stratus with bases that are currently around 1200 ft AGL is starting to break apart, especially toward east central WI and over the lakes in Madison. The ACARS soundings show a very thin moist layer that proves the cloud layer is thin. Therefore, expect a quick transition to sunny skies (SCT VFR diurnal cu still around) between noon and 1 PM today. High clouds will start to move in through the afternoon.

Cronce

MARINE
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Areas of dense fog will occur at times for the south half of the lake this morning, mainly before 9 AM CDT. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. Winds will remain light and variable through Sunday night as weak high pressure moves across Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will then turn out of the south late Sunday night into Monday as a trough of low pressure from southern Alberta to the northern Great Plains deepens to around 29.2 inches. Low pressure then drifts northeastward into Ontario through Thursday.
Southerly winds over the lake continue through Tuesday night, then a cold front crosses the lake Wednesday, causing winds to veer southwesterly. Westerly winds continue through the end of the week as the low weakens to 29.4 inches and rests over southern Ontario.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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