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FXUS62 KFFC 021833 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 233 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible in the region through Monday.

- The severe weather risk through Monday remains low, with peak wind gusts near 40 mph and lighting being the main potential hazards with any thunderstorms.

This Evening through Monday:

A weak shortwave trough will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms linger in the region through tonight. Though, with the loss of diurnal heating this evening, the degree of activity should diminish and become increasingly limited to portions of northeast Georgia tonight. Severe weather is unlikely through this evening due to a lack of effective wind shear (values below 20 kt), however peak MUCAPE values near 1200 J/kg may be sufficient for a few stronger updrafts in northern Georgia. Therefore a couple of isolated downbursts with wind gusts near 40 mph can't be entirely ruled out through 10 PM.

A very weak transient ridge should move into the region on Monday.
Subsidence associated with the ridge looks nearly nonexistent, and thus diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is expected again Monday afternoon. Despite patchy low clouds and fog in the morning, diurnal heating should be more pronounced on Monday, with afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s. This should lead to mean MUCAPE values (per the 12Z HRRR) in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range Monday afternoon. Compared to today this would be a 50 to 100% increase in available instability. Effective shear and lapse rates should remain marketable weak however, and thus the overall severe risk remains low. The strongest storms could produce isolated wind gusts near 40 mph, frequent lighting and brief heavy rainfall.

Albright

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

At a glance:

- Daily rain chances

- Return to slightly above average warmth

As we enter the extended range on Tuesday, low-amplitude mid-level ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, the Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high, within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A weak shortwave disturbance and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west will support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection during the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances.
The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC's General Thunder risk for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm.

Beyond Tuesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of northwesterly flow that carries through the remainder of the long- term period. As is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end chance PoPs (30-50%) will develop each day. With moist southwesterly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the atmosphere will be primed for efficient rainfall and quick recovery between rounds of convection. Forecast multi-day (Tuesday through Thursday) rainfall totals across north and central Georgia currently stand between a tenth and three-quarters of an inch, but these values may be exceeded in areas that experience stronger or slower moving storms. For now, it looks like the best chances for more quasi-organized thunderstorms will come Wednesday through Thursday, aided by a pre-frontal trough. Even so, any weak disturbances traversing our mid-level flow could serve as a catalyst to nudge any discrete cells into more long-lived clusters that persist beyond the loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC, and corroborated by taking a dive into ensemble guidance, predictability is too low at this range to pin down any clear signals for widespread severe weather. The most probable outcome appears to be an isolated strong to marginally severe storm (typical as we move into a more summertime pattern driven by instability as opposed to wind shear) capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and nuisance flooding if storm motions are slow.
Rain and storm chances then look to taper off for a majority of the weekend as a drier airmass settles in in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day, with lows in the 60s to lower-70s.

96

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will linger in the region through around 10Z Monday, with any activity after 05Z being limited to northern Georgia. Primarily VFR conditions (away from storms and showers) should continue in the region through around 06Z Monday. Then areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR (ceilings 300 to 1200 ft AGL and visibility of 2 to 6 SM) conditions may develop, especially over western and northern Georgia. Southerly winds (160 to 230 degrees) at 4 to 10 kt will linger through around 00Z Monday, then light and variable winds are expected through 14Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
Moderate confidence in the wind and visibility forecasts.
Low confidence in the thunderstorm forecast this afternoon and low ceilings Monday morning.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 86 66 88 / 50 20 10 30 Atlanta 66 86 68 88 / 30 20 10 40 Blairsville 60 81 61 82 / 30 30 10 40 Cartersville 63 87 66 88 / 20 20 10 40 Columbus 68 88 69 90 / 20 20 10 40 Gainesville 64 85 66 87 / 40 20 10 40 Macon 66 88 68 90 / 30 20 10 40 Rome 64 87 66 87 / 10 20 10 40 Peachtree City 64 87 66 88 / 30 20 10 40 Vidalia 68 90 69 91 / 20 20 10 50

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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