Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 11:29 AM   Moonset 12:07 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 733 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers this afternoon. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - SE winds around 5 kt - .becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft.Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 733 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a ridge of high pressure will remain near the waters today. A cold front will pass through late Friday. High pressure will return over the weekend before exiting offshore. A warm front tracks across the area on Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, and perhaps again on Monday into Monday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 131045 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 645 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will pass off of the Mid Atlantic coast today, as a cold front pushes into the Great Lakes. The cold front will push through Pennsylvania Friday, followed by Canadian High Pressure building in for this weekend. An anomalous subtropical ridge is likely to build over the East Coast next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Surface high pressure will drift off the Mid Atlantic coast today, resulting in a warmer return southwest flow. Upstream satellite imagery and latest model RH profiles support mostly sunny skies today and mixing down model 850mb temps of around 16C translates to expected highs ranging from the low 80s along the spine of the Appalachians, to the upper 80s in the Susq Valley. Can't completely rule out a late day shower/tsra across the southeast corner of the forecast area, where models indicate surging pwats and capes near 1000 J/kg. However, dry mid level air in the model soundings suggest any convection will be isolated.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Falling heights and surging low level moisture ahead of an upper level trough working into the Grt Lks could spread a shower into the N Mtns toward dawn Friday. Otherwise, fair weather is anticipated, with markedly milder conditions than recent nights in the warm advection regime ahead of the trough.
Mostly clear skies, light wind and rising dewpoints may lead to some patchy late night valley fog in the central part of the state per latest SREF prob charts.

All model guidance pushes the upper trough and associated cold front through Central PA Friday, accompanied by a good chance of showers and possible tsra. The 00Z HRRR holds precip off until afternoon over the southeast half of the forecast area, allowing temps to rise above seasonal normals, while an early arrival of showers is likely to cap temps in the low 70s across the N Mtns. Modest instability and decent mid level flow supports a chance of isolated severe weather Friday afternoon over the southeast part of the forecast area, where HRRR UH values >75 supports organized convection.

Strong large scale forcing ahead of the upper trough and seasonably high pwats support POPs in the 60-80pct range Friday over most of Central PA. Latest ensemble plumes indicate just a few tenths of an inch rainfall for most locations, with isolated amounts of 2+ inches possible from heavier tsra based on the HRRR LPMM.

Any evening showers/tsra over the southeast counties should end shortly after sunset Friday, as the cold front exits the state.
Canadian High Pressure building in behind the front should bring clearing skies and cooler air Friday night. Abundant sunshine and seasonal temps are expected Saturday, as the high pressure system and associated low-pwat air mass builds into the region.

The center of high is progged to pass over Central PA Saturday night, resulting in favorable conditions for radiational cooling and low temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. This will be the last time we see temperatures in the 40s in PA for the foreseeable future.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday afternoon outside of some isolated diurnally driven showers across the northern tier Monday afternoon and across much of north and western PA Tuesday afternoon.

An extended period of above average temperatures is increasingly likely as a large ridge builds across the eastern US. This will allow for MaxTs and MinTs +10-15F above climatology for the middle of June. There remains some model difference with respect to the strength of the ridge, but generally better agreement of abnormally warm temperatures extending northward into PA.

Less humid conditions on Monday will bring heat index values into the upper 90s, with some locations across southern PA pushing close to the 100F mark. Humidity during the afternoon hours will increase the risk for excessive heat on Tuesday with some potential for heat index values in the 100-105F across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Humid conditions will continue into Wednesday with heat index values slightly lower than Tuesday, but still anomalously warm even for this time of the year. The Climate Prediction Center has placed much of eastern PA in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Heat for the middle and end of next week, outlining the longevity of heat across the region.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR will continue today through tonight as a result of a ridge of sfc high pressure extending from the Delmarva Coast into Central PA.

The ridge of high pressure will shift a bit to the east this afternoon and tonight, causing a light and minimally gusty south to southwesterly flow to develop.

Periods of generally thin cirrus will top flat cu (based between 4000-5000 ft agl) that will form during the late morning through late afternoon hours.

Areas of BKN100-120 Alto Cu spreads across the region overnight as warm advection increases in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

Strongest LLVL pressure gradient will edge into NW PA late tonight and will likely result in LLWS at KBFD around and after 04Z Fri.

A a period of scattered to numerous showers and TSRA will occur on Friday with a cold front (mainly during the late morning and early afternoon (NW PA) through the late afternoon/early evening in the SE.

Timing of the system and the lack of real high dewpoints may limit the coverage and intensity of the showers and storms.
Activity quickly clears out to the east Friday evening.

A dry weekend is shaping up with VFR conditions.

Perhaps a shower or storm late Monday, as a warmer airmass is advected eastward toward PA.

Outlook...

Fri...Restrictions possible in CB/TSRA.

Sat-Sun...Predominantly VFR.

Mon...Mainly VFR, chance of convection mainly northwest.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:31 AM EDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Millside
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware, Tide feet

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