Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 1:54 AM   Moonset 3:23 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202406022115;;316047 Fzus51 Kbuf 021457 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1057 am edt Sun jun 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-022115- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1057 am edt Sun jun 2 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers early this afternoon. Showers likely late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 61 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 021925 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 325 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday. The first half of the week will be warm and shower chances will increase midweek as the next system approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

325 PM Update...

A weak frontal system is pushing in from the west this afternoon and some light rain showers will be possible through this evening. However, very dry conditions in the mid levels will limit rainfall from reaching the ground and VIRGA has been reported at a few locations already this afternoon.
Very little instability is currently present as mid and upper level clouds have limited heating today, so decided to remove thunderstorms from the forecast this afternoon.

Overnight, showers will continue until just before midnight. Low level moisture advection will continue overnight and this will likely lead to some valley fog developing, especially in any areas that do see showers this afternoon and evening. Temperatures tonight will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but a weak shortwave pushes in from the NW tomorrow afternoon, and although a cap will likely exist, this may be enough to kick off a few isolated thunderstorms during peak heating in the afternoon.
The best chance will be over the terrain areas of the Catskills and Poconos as orographic lift may provide enough boost to break through the cap. Most of the area will stay dry and see mostly sunny skies. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Any showers and thunderstorms will dissipate around sunset. Tomorrow night will remain warm with lows only falling into the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM Update...

A cooling trend begins Tuesday as a slow-moving upper-level low from Canada slowly marches towards Central NY and NE PA.
Temperatures will decrease from the low- to mid-80s Tuesday to high-70s to low-80s Wednesday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before the aforementioned system swings down into the Great Lakes region, bringing heavier rain showers Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of flash flooding) for Wednesday night, with QPF values up to half an inch of rainfall overnight Wednesday through early Thursday morning. We'll keep monitoring the changes in guidance as we get closer to mid-week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
220 PM Update...

The slow-moving upper-level low spins just north of the region and goes quasi-stationary there through the rest of the long- term period. The cooling trend from mid-week continues into the weekend, with temperatures falling from mid- to high-70s Thursday to the high-60s to low-70s Saturday. It'll be quite the unsettled pattern with chances for rain showers during the entire stretch from Thursday to Saturday, with chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of flash flooding) for Thursday; it wouldn't be surprising if this continued through the rest of the week due to the unsettled pattern. It's difficult to pinpoint how much rainfall we may receive this upcoming week since different long- term models suggest the center of the system to be in different positions every day of the long-term, which can influence the amount of rainfall an area could receive. For now, we'll continue to monitor how long-term guidance shifts over the next few days.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals until late tonight/ early Monday morning. A weak system will bring light showers to the region this afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to place showers on station at any one terminal. The best chances for any rain showers will be at ELM, BGM, ITH, and SYR, but even if these sites see showers, there are no restrictions expected since showers will be fairly light. As showers move out of these terminals after 00z tonight, conditions will become favorable for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance was favoring ELM, BGM, and ITH with restrictions, but only put visibility restrictions at ELM as the highest confidence is fog will occur there. There is a bit more uncertainty at BGM and ITH, so only brought in MVFR ceilings for now and will take another look when 0Z TAFs are due. Any fog that develops will likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could be some lingering low ceilings.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated rain showers during the daytime hours. Patchy valley fog and restrictions Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front approaches.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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