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LEZ163 Expires:202406172015;;175960 Fzus61 Kcle 171352 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 952 am edt Mon jun 17 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will continue to dominate the weather over the great lakes this week.
lez162>164-172015- detroit river lt. To maumee bay oh to reno beach oh beyond 5nm offshoreline to us-canadian border- reno beach to the islands oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- the islands to vermilion oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 952 am edt Mon jun 17 2024
Rest of today - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 171908 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 308 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through this week, resulting in near-record temperatures across the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the forecast area this afternoon, as convective temperatures are being reached in the mid 90s and surface dew points start broaching the 70 degree mark across northern Ohio. However, with no real forcing other than the diurnal forcing, coverage is just scattered across the region. However, the environment for these storms is generally supportive for strong to severe convection with SBCAPE values reaching over 3500 J/kg, DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, and low level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, which will support robust, quickly growing updrafts that will support severe sized hail and tall enough cores that could descend as downbursts with winds over 60 MPH. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Special Weather Statements are ongoing and the environment appears favorable for strong to severe storms through early evening. Convection will move east of the area later this evening and subside with a more stable environment with the loss of diurnal heating. Residual cloud cover across the region from this afternoon's storms could remain for some portion of tonight and help keep temperatures slightly elevated with lows likely not escaping the 70s for most of the forecast area.

Tuesday appears to be a rinse and repeat of today. An abnormally warm summer air mass will allow for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees and dew point values will once again approach the 70 degree mark. This will allow for heat index values to exceed 100 degrees and the Heat Advisory will remain valid. Temperatures should hit convective temperatures again with the diurnal cycle and scattered showers and storms will be present again. Storms could once again have a bite with an generally unstable environment to support some strong to severe wind and hail. Any convection will also taper off temperatures and heat index values from hitting the Heat Advisory values. Residual clouds and abnormally warm air mass will have another dry, but warm Tuesday night with lows likely staying above 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
One of the consistent difficulties in the forecast for this stretch of weather dominated by a strong dome of upper level high pressure to the east/northeast of the CWA is trying to determine if there is enough layer moisture for convection to develop, and if so, to what extent. The operational models continue to try to push out QPF associated with weak waves in the south to north flow, but looking at forecast soundings shows it remains pretty dry above the boundary layer. Will opt to keep some low POPs in across the area just because there is not enough confidence to completely remove them given the setup and feel isolated convection is a reasonable forecast. Thursday is a day for stronger ridging aloft, getting away from the south to north flow with a westward expansion of the ridge axis into the southern Great Lakes. This keeps the baroclinic zone well to the north of the CWA and likely cuts off the tropical flow of moisture as well. Some trickiness to the temperatures Wednesday as there will not be any real change to the airmass in place but there could be an increase in high level/cirrus cloud cover. This could keep the temperatures down a degree or two from previous forecasts where every degree helps in this hotter pattern. Dewpoints have come up slightly however, and the the apparent temperature values likely are not going to change much if the slightly cooler forecast materializes. Expecting Thursday to be a little hotter once again with slight 500mb height increases from the aforementioned expanding ridge axis influence over the CWA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Expecting gradual degradation of the dominant upper level ridge pattern along with a southward migration for the end of the week and into the weekend. At this point, trying to pin down the next significant chances for rain which appear to be Sunday. Flow aloft will become a bit more zonal allowing for more organized systems to work into the area. Still on the hot side for Thursday and Friday, but gradual cooling through the long term and should be in in the 80s by Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR conditions are at the terminals this afternoon with the exception being any terminal being impacts by a scattered thunderstorm. Storms will continue across northern Ohio over the next several hours. Some storms have had a bite with them with gusts over 30 kt but confidence in that impact at a terminal is very low. Convection will subside with the diurnal cycle tonight and trend to VFR. Will need to monitor for fog overnight, where convection occurred the atmosphere has some chance to decouple.
Afternoon cumulus and new shower/storm chances will be possible toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will favor southerly through the period.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is low.

MARINE
Offshore winds generally less than 10kts through Wednesday become light and variable for the end of the week. Wave heights through the entire forecast period less than a foot through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms possible today and Tuesday.

CLIMATE
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018)
06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018)
06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931)
06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016)
06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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