Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 9:16 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM   Moonset 4:06 PM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 246 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the morning. Patchy fog early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Light winds. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 020722 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers end this morning.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Late Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

- A wet pattern and cooler temperatures will linger through the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid level shortwave trough and weak surface low in the process of working northeast across the southeast Lakes region early this morning. Broad deformation and deep layer moisture convergence on their northwest flank was responsible for quite the widespread rain event this past evening into early this morning...especially for areas south of M-32. Enhanced forcing and attendant rains working slowly east, with just a few less organized showers falling across northwest lower and portions of eastern upper Michigan.

Mid level heights will slowly rebound in wake of departing trough this afternoon into tonight, with weak surface high pressure building overhead in response.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any lingering shower concerns.

Details:

Current shower activity expected to come to an end heading into this morning as primary forcing mechanism exits stage right. Much of the day for most of the area will remain dry thereafter. However, could see just enough forced low level wind/moisture convergence across interior eastern upper Michigan (lake breeze convergence axis) and across our southeast areas to perhaps kick off a few diurnally enhanced scattered light rain showers this afternoon (although those building mid level heights argue otherwise). Will introduce just some "smallish" shower potential in these areas. Again, not a big deal, and most areas will remain dry this afternoon. Clouds will decrease from west to east today, although it may take until evening to see any appreciable clearing for areas on the south side of the sunrise side. Highs today expected to top out in the lower and middle 70s for most, with just a touch cooler readings right near those big waters.

Dry conditions expected tonight as mid level heights continue to increase across the region. Wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy early morning fog and stratus...especially in areas that experienced better rain this past evening. Look for lows tonight to bottom out in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Warm temperatures with a generally wet pattern will linger through mid week as a few rounds of rain chances move through. The first one will start to approach Monday late afternoon. Upper level support should be induced via stronger convection over the north central plains Monday afternoon, meaning a weak shortwave created from stronger storms to our west could help continue thunder chances Monday night as it moves over northern MI.
The second round will be aided by a slightly deeper shortwave and healthy moisture advection Tuesday afternoon. Due to this, slightly higher thunderstorm chances exist for Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average.

Starting mid week (~Wednesday), a deep upper level closed low over Manitoba CA will start to slide to the southeast. This will result in cooler temperatures (~5 to 8 degrees below average), clouds, and widespread stratiform rain chances through next weekend. As upper level heights fall and a likely weakening surface low moves through, thunder could be possible at times.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: For thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday, currently, model soundings show mainly a few hundred j/kg of elevated instability Monday night into early Tuesday which would limit severe attributes to storms overnight.
However, potentially anomalous moisture amounts could be advected up to northern MI during this time. 70% to 80% of global ensemble members show PW values rising to the 90th percentile or above by early Tuesday morning (at least 1.2"). More moisture and upper level heights continuing to fall (from the second shortwave approaching)
will result in more instability to work with Tuesday afternoon.
Healthy shear could also aid in organizing some storms that form.
There is still decent uncertainty with what Tuesday afternoon will look like due to important details needing to be resolved first (dependency of upper level shortwaves on diurnal convection in the plains). Nonetheless, rain chances will continue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1214 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR ceilings have already moved into KMBL/KTVC and expect IFR ceilings (and possibly visibility at KMBL) to develop overnight though expect conditions to improve quickly Sunday morning to VFR. Still mid clouds and some rain around/south of KAPN and expect at least low end MVFR ceilings and possibly IFR ceilings after 09z...MVFR conditions will likely persist for most of Sunday morning with VFR conditions the rest of the forecast period. KPLN/KCIU also likely to see MVFR ceilings closer to daybreak but like KMBL/KTVC expect quick improvement to VFR Sunday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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