Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Louisville, TN
June 2, 2024 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM Moonset 3:48 PM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMRX 021854 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Showers, and perhaps a few afternoon thunderstorms, decrease in coverage overnight with some areas of fog.
2. Mostly dry Monday with ridging building across the Southern Appalachians. A chance of a few spotty showers across the mountains.
Discussion:
The shortwave trough axis will move east of the region tonight with weak ridging building in from the west. This will result in clearing sky conditions. With low-level moisture, light winds, and a clear sky, fog and low cloud development is expected across portions of the area late tonight and into Monday morning. The highest chances of dense fog will be across the western locations of the forecast area, generally west of Knoxville and I-81.
Ridge axis and northwest flow aloft on Monday will result in mostly clear to partly cloudy sky conditions during the afternoon with dry conditions expected area-wide. Low chances (20 to 30 percent) of precipitation will continue across the higher elevations of the mountains during the afternoon. However, with poor lapse rates and limited instability, no severe weather impacts would be anticipated.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Isolated showers and storms are expected on Tuesday with more scattered to numerous coverage Wednesday to Wednesday evening.
2. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible Wednesday to Wednesday evening with damaging winds as the primary threat.
Isolated flash flooding is also possible, especially if there are multiple rounds.
3. Rain chances will continue into Thursday with drier and milder conditions Friday through most of the weekend.
Monday Night through Thursday
At the start of the period, ridging will be moving over the area with a shortwave/closed low just west of the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, increasing southerly flow will be underway as well. On Tuesday, ridging will shift further to the east with the aforementioned shortwave approaching from the west. This will also be accompanied by moisture advection, especially in southwestern portions of the area. These locations will be the focus for convection as the environment will be much less favorable as evidenced by PWATs barely to 1 inch and minimal instability. Further southwest where instability is present, values will likely be limited to less than 1,000 MLCAPE with 20 kts or less of deep-layer shear. Based on these indications, the threat for any strong to severe storms will be very limited.
By Wednesday, the shortwave to our north and west will move overhead with stronger southerly flow in the lower levels advecting even better moisture into the area. A frontal boundary will also be noted far to our northwest. By this time, many locations will have PWAT values anywhere from 1.5 to 1.8 inches, reaching above the 90th percentile for this time of year. With the continued heating and better low-level moisture, the environment will likely be a lot more unstable than Tuesday with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1,500 J/kg.
Overall winds will be fairly light, but they will be more veered from the surface up to 500mb. Models are currently suggesting a combination of scattered convection and/or a possible MCS arriving from the northwest from late afternoon through the evening. The evolution and timing of storms is still unclear, but the environment is certainly supportive of some being strong to possibly severe.
With fairly high freezing levels and DCAPEs to 1,000+ J/kg, damaging winds is really the main threat. Also, heavy rainfall rates due to abundant moisture could lead to isolated flooding. Based on these trends, HWO wording will be introduced. On Thursday, a westerly to northwesterly flow pattern will remain in place aloft with the frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. By this time, the environment will be a lot more worked over, but additional showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to continue.
Friday through Sunday
Towards Friday, troughing to our north and east will dig further south, promoting a more northwesterly flow pattern. The frontal boundary will likely push to our south, meaning winds near the surface will follow the same northwesterly direction. Low-end rain chances will be maintained, but a much drier column will likely keep most places dry with a drop in temperatures to slightly below normal. This northwesterly flow pattern will continue into Saturday, keeping rain chances more limited. By Sunday, the boundary may begin to be pulled back northward, but moisture and shower/thunderstorm coverage still looks fairly limited.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Rain showers will continue to move east this afternoon with generally clearing conditions from west to east. There is a low chance of a thunderstorm in the vicinity of terminals this afternoon, but with the probability only around 10 percent, have left this out of the TAF at this time. The highest risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon, around 20 percent, will be at CHA.
With clearing sky conditions tonight, especially near CHA and TYS, widespread fog and low cloud development is expected across the valley with MVFR and IFR impacts by Monday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by 14 to 15z Monday morning. Winds remain light.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 87 67 88 / 10 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 85 64 87 / 30 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 85 64 86 / 20 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 81 61 86 / 20 20 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Showers, and perhaps a few afternoon thunderstorms, decrease in coverage overnight with some areas of fog.
2. Mostly dry Monday with ridging building across the Southern Appalachians. A chance of a few spotty showers across the mountains.
Discussion:
The shortwave trough axis will move east of the region tonight with weak ridging building in from the west. This will result in clearing sky conditions. With low-level moisture, light winds, and a clear sky, fog and low cloud development is expected across portions of the area late tonight and into Monday morning. The highest chances of dense fog will be across the western locations of the forecast area, generally west of Knoxville and I-81.
Ridge axis and northwest flow aloft on Monday will result in mostly clear to partly cloudy sky conditions during the afternoon with dry conditions expected area-wide. Low chances (20 to 30 percent) of precipitation will continue across the higher elevations of the mountains during the afternoon. However, with poor lapse rates and limited instability, no severe weather impacts would be anticipated.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Key Messages:
1. Isolated showers and storms are expected on Tuesday with more scattered to numerous coverage Wednesday to Wednesday evening.
2. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible Wednesday to Wednesday evening with damaging winds as the primary threat.
Isolated flash flooding is also possible, especially if there are multiple rounds.
3. Rain chances will continue into Thursday with drier and milder conditions Friday through most of the weekend.
Monday Night through Thursday
At the start of the period, ridging will be moving over the area with a shortwave/closed low just west of the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, increasing southerly flow will be underway as well. On Tuesday, ridging will shift further to the east with the aforementioned shortwave approaching from the west. This will also be accompanied by moisture advection, especially in southwestern portions of the area. These locations will be the focus for convection as the environment will be much less favorable as evidenced by PWATs barely to 1 inch and minimal instability. Further southwest where instability is present, values will likely be limited to less than 1,000 MLCAPE with 20 kts or less of deep-layer shear. Based on these indications, the threat for any strong to severe storms will be very limited.
By Wednesday, the shortwave to our north and west will move overhead with stronger southerly flow in the lower levels advecting even better moisture into the area. A frontal boundary will also be noted far to our northwest. By this time, many locations will have PWAT values anywhere from 1.5 to 1.8 inches, reaching above the 90th percentile for this time of year. With the continued heating and better low-level moisture, the environment will likely be a lot more unstable than Tuesday with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1,500 J/kg.
Overall winds will be fairly light, but they will be more veered from the surface up to 500mb. Models are currently suggesting a combination of scattered convection and/or a possible MCS arriving from the northwest from late afternoon through the evening. The evolution and timing of storms is still unclear, but the environment is certainly supportive of some being strong to possibly severe.
With fairly high freezing levels and DCAPEs to 1,000+ J/kg, damaging winds is really the main threat. Also, heavy rainfall rates due to abundant moisture could lead to isolated flooding. Based on these trends, HWO wording will be introduced. On Thursday, a westerly to northwesterly flow pattern will remain in place aloft with the frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. By this time, the environment will be a lot more worked over, but additional showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to continue.
Friday through Sunday
Towards Friday, troughing to our north and east will dig further south, promoting a more northwesterly flow pattern. The frontal boundary will likely push to our south, meaning winds near the surface will follow the same northwesterly direction. Low-end rain chances will be maintained, but a much drier column will likely keep most places dry with a drop in temperatures to slightly below normal. This northwesterly flow pattern will continue into Saturday, keeping rain chances more limited. By Sunday, the boundary may begin to be pulled back northward, but moisture and shower/thunderstorm coverage still looks fairly limited.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Rain showers will continue to move east this afternoon with generally clearing conditions from west to east. There is a low chance of a thunderstorm in the vicinity of terminals this afternoon, but with the probability only around 10 percent, have left this out of the TAF at this time. The highest risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon, around 20 percent, will be at CHA.
With clearing sky conditions tonight, especially near CHA and TYS, widespread fog and low cloud development is expected across the valley with MVFR and IFR impacts by Monday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by 14 to 15z Monday morning. Winds remain light.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 87 67 88 / 10 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 85 64 87 / 30 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 85 64 86 / 20 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 81 61 86 / 20 20 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTYS MC GHEE TYSON,TN | 3 sm | 22 min | SSW 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 64°F | 65% | 30.00 | |
| KDKX KNOXVILLE DOWNTOWN ISLAND,TN | 14 sm | 20 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 77°F | 66°F | 69% | 30.01 |
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE