Sunrise 4:31 AM   Sunset 11:22 PM Moonrise 2:13 AM   Moonset 1:35 PM

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PKZ119 Cape Suckling To Cape Cleare- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory today - .
Today - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.Tonight - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.Thu - NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.Thu night - N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.Fri through Sat - NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sun - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 010019 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 419 PM AKDT Fri May 31 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An area of low pressure will continue to linger in the western Gulf of Alaska through Sunday afternoon. A surface warm front associated with this system will quickly occlude as it lifts north into the northern Gulf Friday night. Widespread rain and easterly gales will accompany the front spreading to the immediate Southcentral coast. Farther west, strong northeasterly winds and steady rain will continue for Kodiak Island as a lingering trough axis over the region phases with the occluded front while also serving as the focus for continued moisture advection.

For Saturday morning, expect generally clear and dry conditions from Cook Inlet north into the Mat-Su Valleys and Copper River Basin as an upper- level ridge builds over the region out ahead of the aforementioned low. Subsidence with this ridge should keep any low-level and mid- level cloud cover to a minimum and allow for daytime temperatures to push well into the 60s for many locations, with the warmest temperatures over the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.

The occluded front reaches the coast Saturday with rain across the immediate coast and increasing chances for afternoon showers inland as an upper-level shortwave ahead of the surface front moves inland. Increasing clouds and scattered showers will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than Friday for interior Southcentral. The low center also begins to track west on Saturday in response to the longwave upper-level trough also lifting northwest. This westward jog will allow a second round of strong winds and heavier rain showers to move back over the northern Gulf and Kodiak Island. The gusty winds and precipitation will likely persist across Kodiak Island and the northwestern Gulf of Alaska through Sunday afternoon as the low drifts slowly south of Kodiak Island.

Conditions should improve again for Sunday with only a few isolated showers as the upper level wave moves north into the west central part of the state.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

Radar imagery and area observations show light rain continues across coastal southwest Alaska, primarily around the Kuskokwim Delta, in response to an upper-level shortwave moving across the area coincident with a weak surface front. This first bout of precipitating activity will diminish this evening into the overnight hours. This lull will be brief as an occluded front off the low in the Gulf pushes across the Alaska Range, bringing light rain back into Bristol Bay tonight.

On Saturday, warming conditions and more unstable conditions will be supportive of more numerous showers across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay. There are indications that convection will continue overnight with the support of a combination of the theta-e ridge and easterly shortwaves tracking in from Southcentral Alaska. The area of greatest instability shifts toward the Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains and potentially even into the Kuskokwim Delta for Sunday as the low in the Gulf shifts northwest. However, there is some uncertainty in the exact placement of the greatest instability and therefore exactly where showers will set up. Conditions appear, at best, marginal for thunderstorm development, with a warm layer above 600 mb likely keeping convection too shallow for more than a stray lightning strike or two. Currently, though, lightning is not expected.
Monday will be quite similar to Sunday with precipitation focused again across or near the Kuskokwim Mountains.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

A ~980mb low analyzed near the Rat Islands will gradually move east and weaken over the next as it moves towards and dissipates into the Gulf of Alaska. A weak front currently stretches out ahead of the low, moving through the eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. This front will continue to push into the Alaska Peninsula later today into the overnight hours before shearing out over the eastern Bering Sea Saturday morning. Light rain showers near the center of the low track east along the Aleutian Chain through Saturday as well, before dipping back into the North Pacific. Much calmer and drier conditions are in store for the Bering Sea and Aleutians on Saturday despite a broad trough lingering behind the exiting low. This is short-lived, however, as northerly winds increase over the western Bering/Aleutians in response to the remnants of Typhoon Ewiniar passing well to the south of the Aleutians on Sunday. Northerly winds spread eastward to cover much of the Bering for the start of next week, but remain below gale force.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Tuesday through Friday...

A broad upper-level trough over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to persist through Wednesday evening, producing easterly waves that will carry over Southcentral. As showers form from these waves, precipitation totals will mostly be light. However, as increased convective activity is currently expected over the Copper River Basin through midweek, higher local amounts of rainfall are possible with this system. The biggest chance for widespread and heavier precipitation will be Tuesday into early Wednesday as the majority of easterly waves will pass over the region at that time.

The trough will start to dissipate and merge with a new trough in the eastern Bering and Aleutians Wednesday night. Widespread showers will be possible over Southwest as the trough lingers over the Bering and slowly moves westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Stronger winds will not be a major concern since the low will be vertically stacked and past its peak intensity.
The track of the trough by Friday and into next weekend becomes a bit more uncertain with current model guidance. Some models are suggesting that the trough lingers over the central Aleutians while others shift it much further south and east well outside of the forecast region.

-BS


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through early afternoon. Gusty winds are expected to pick back up out of the south from Turnagain Arm this evening. These winds will likely persist through late evening before diminishing again overnight.

-CC

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Pete Dahl Slough
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:11 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:08 AM AKDT     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM AKDT     7.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM AKDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:23 PM AKDT     9.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pete Dahl Slough, Alaska, Tide feet

Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:25 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 04:28 AM AKDT     2.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:59 AM AKDT     8.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:16 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:33 PM AKDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:31 PM AKDT     10.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:56 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eyak River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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