Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 5:39PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 1:18 AM CST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 8:07PMMoonset 8:17AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point, TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 190435 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1035 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. No significant adjustments to the previous set of TAFs. VFR is expected tonight through Wednesday afternoon with light winds overnight becoming moderate to breezy tomorrow. A slip into MVFR territory may occur beginning around sunset Wednesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 532 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . Favorable conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with VFR anticipated. Moderate winds overnight will become breezy on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 242 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): With a nearly zonal flow aloft and a persistent southerly flow advecting warm, moist air across Deep South Texas today and tomorrow, a warming trend with increasing humidity can be expected through Wednesday. With surface low pressure forming over the Texas Panhandle today and remaining draped across North Texas through Wednesday, the pressure gradient will maintain breezy southerly winds through the day today and again tomorrow. Winds will decouple overnight tonight and may drop enough to allow some patchy to areas of fog to develop across mainly the Brush Country and Upper Valley Wednesday morning with the nearly saturated surface conditions. Cloud cover will also increase overnight with the deeper moisture profile and temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

On Wednesday, a lee-side trough and dry line will move in from the west as far as I-69C by the afternoon, which will allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 80s due to downslope winds. No rain is expected through Wednesday.

The next cold front will approach the northern border of our CWA at midnight Wednesday night and then is expected to push south of the Rio Grande by sunrise Thursday. There is a slight chance to chance of showers along the frontal boundary, but overall rainfall amounts are expected to be low. Temperatures will drop into the 40s in the Brush Country by Thursday morning, with 50s for most other locations in Deep South Texas . with the bulk of the cold air advection occurring during the start of the long term period.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):

There won't be much to slow the shallow, arctic origin air mass which will surge south into Texas late Wednesday. A shallow mid level trough over the Southwest will eventually synch up with the Plains trough, creating a large scale trough just upstream. This pattern will support overrunning and increased precipitation chances across the CWA, primarily Thursday to Friday or even Saturday. I say precip rather than just rain since there may be a (currently) small, but nonzero chance of wintry precip across the Brush Country and Ranchlands Thursday night into Friday.

Long range models are in fairly good agreement with the timing of this front (to the coast by dawn Thursday) and also show isolated showers late Wednesday along and ahead of the front. Overrunning will take over soon after colder air pushes across the area with robuster rain chances. Long range models are now stabilizing on the details of temperature and rain chances in the wake of the front, but there still has been a trend toward slightly lower temperatures on Friday, moreso in the GFS. Dropped overnight low temps a degree more Friday and Saturday mornings, but left the inherited forecast otherwise intact.

Strong cold air advection and overrunning conditions will develop on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will not increase much, if any, from morning lows, meaning daily high temps will occur Wednesday night. Current thinking is robust rain chances (albeit modest QPF amounts) will develop in the wake of the front on Thursday and will continue into Friday and Saturday. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s north to the 50s southeast with the lower RGV hanging on to the highest temps in the upper 50s to near 60 before being completely overtaken by colder air. Thursday night low temperatures will dip into the 30s across the board, with "feels like" temps down in the 20s by early morning. Freezing weather is forecast for the Ranchlands.

Though the lift with the initial surface surge mostly will be over late on Thursday, upper divergence (lift) will come more into focus over the Ranchlands Thursday night. Precip chances will increase, including through an 850 to 700 mb layer that comes very close to crossing completely into freezing territory. Thus, a period of wintry mix including freezing rain could develop across northern sections and confidence is now fair for a wee bit of wintry precip Thursday night. A reasonable worst case scenario suggests wintry precip and freezing temps possibly scooping farther south, with correspondingly lesser confidence, into North Starr, North Hidalgo, and Willacy Counties. QPF amounts appear modest, however, a few hundreths to a couple of tenths of an inch, but that doesn't obscure the significance of the precip type.

Friday will be quite chilly and the coldest day of the week with high temperatures across the area mainly in the 40s. Overrunning light rain will still be a good bet. Rain chances/amounts will taper off a bit by Friday night, however. Low temps will again be in the 30s Friday night with another light freeze possible.

Cooler weather and light rain chances will linger through the weekend with a secondary high pressure surge showing up on Saturday, but the in place air mass will start to slowly modify and the freeze threat should be low for Saturday night. If an upstream shortwave trough moves across North Mexico and South Texas Sunday into Monday, coastal troughing and amplified rain chances would materialize early next week.

MARINE:

Now through Wednesday Night . Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will persist today and again on Wednesday across portions of the lower Texas Gulf waters due to elevated southerly winds. A strong cold front will move across the waters late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, bringing hazardous marine conditions with gusts to gale-force possible.

Thursday through Sunday Night . A strong cold front will barrel across the lower Texas coast Thursday morning. Small craft advisory to gale conditions will initially develop behind the front due to strong north winds. The more aggressive, reasonable worst case scenario posits gale force gusts Thursday morning on the Gulf as a surge of high pressure sweeps over the waters. A gale watch will be issued for the Gulf waters Thursday morning. A few gusts to gale force early Thursday could become more frequent by Thursday afternoon but for now it will be borderline. Though winds in the post front environment may decrease below advisory criteria by Friday night, elevated seas above small craft advisory criteria will persist through the end of the forecast, i.e. Sunday, on the Gulf.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 80 51 58 / 0 0 20 50 BROWNSVILLE 65 82 54 60 / 0 0 20 50 HARLINGEN 62 83 49 56 / 0 0 20 50 MCALLEN 62 84 49 54 / 0 0 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 85 47 53 / 0 0 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 74 55 61 / 0 0 20 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . Gale Watch Thursday morning for GMZ150-155-170-175.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ170-175.

This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv


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