Monday, October25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
La Parguera, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:59PM Monday October 25, 2021 4:37 PM AST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 10:32AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ745 Coastal Waters Of Southwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 427 Pm Ast Mon Oct 25 2021
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers through the day.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 13 seconds. North swell around 4 feet. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 427 Pm Ast Mon Oct 25 2021
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Lighter winds and a fading northerly swell will lead to more tranquil marine conditions, with seas of less than 5 feet prevailing through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers will affect portions of the local waters from time to time during the next several days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Parguera, PR
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location: 17.97, -67.05     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 251734 AAB AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 134 PM AST Mon Oct 25 2021

AVIATION. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. With this said, there could be a few showers in and around Puerto Rico and the USVI which could briefly lead to some MVFR conditions at times. East to southeasterly winds should remain generally between 5 and 10 kts through the period with a few sea breeze variations through the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX/

UPDATE . Current forecast remains on track. No changes needed.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 459 AM AST Mon Oct 25 2021/

SYNOPSIS . A ridge aloft will persist into Tuesday, resulting in stable conditions aloft and thus limiting the potential for deep, organized convective activity. However, patches of low-level moisture riding the trade wind flow will be sufficient to generate isolated to scattered shower activity from time to time during the next couple of days. The ridge aloft is expected to weaken by the middle to latter half of the week as a shortwave trough moves across and depending on the amount of moisture, it may allow for better convective activity.

SHORT TERM . TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY .

A trade wind perturbation will continue to result in passing showers across the islands today. While a ridge aloft will limit the vertical development of these showers. However, residents in the Virgin Islands and the east and north portions of Puerto Rico can expect showery weather this morning. These showers may produce ponding of water on roadways and in low-lying areas. Later in the afternoon, local effects, diurnal heating, and sea breeze variations will give way to convection across the western sections of PR, downwind from the El Yunque and the Virgin Islands.

A drier air mass with Suspended Particles from the Africans' Deserts will limit moisture and produce hazy skies through at least mid- week. Nevertheless, the trade winds will bring patches of moisture at times; therefore, pesky showers cannot be ruled out through the forecast period.

LONG TERM . Thursday through Tuesday .

Model guidance continues to be consistent on a marginally unstable weather pattern for most of the long term period. Thursday starts with an upper-level short wave trough crossing the area and low- level winds shifting to southeast through Friday. Discrepancies still exist regarding the amount of moisture convergence through the end of the workweek as mentioned in previous discussions. GFS continues to have better moisture advection due to a southerly flow than ECMWF. However, winds are still expected to weaken as pressure gradient decreases over the area. Therefore, uncertainty still exists on how much moisture will converge over the forecast area.

Recent GFS model runs are consistent that the bulk of the moisture plume will stay south of the region but close enough for above normal moisture content to reach the area. If this plays out and with enough instability in the atmosphere, widespread convective development would be likely with the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area. The bulk of the activity could be observed by Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms developing over the Caribbean waters and being advected towards the southern and southeastern coastal municipalities of Puerto Rico and St. Croix. During the day, surface heating and sea breeze convergence could produce showers and scattered thunderstorms over interior and northern half of Puerto Rico and occasionally affecting the local islands. Light steering winds will increase the potential of flooding threat especially in urbanized regions such as the greater Bayamon and San Juan Metropolitan area. If the ECMWF run plays out instead, then a more less widespread and more localized activity could be observed as moisture intrusion over the forecast area will be greatly reduced.

The weekend also looks marginally unstable with the northeast Caribbean under the boundary of an upper-level building ridge and trough. By Sunday through the end of the forecast period, both global models are consistent in the development of an upper cut-off low lingering over Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands but strength and positioning still not completely agreeing within each model solution. Moisture still does not look impressive, at times both models showing below normal values. Hence, continue to expect a more seasonal weather pattern for the weekend through Tuesday with deep convection developing during each afternoon depending on the available moisture and the evolution of unstable weather conditions aloft. Although models are consistent on the progress of weather features for this week and early next week, location differences of these features continue to bring forecast uncertainty. Therefore, confidence continues to be low to moderate.

AVIATION . Prevailing VFR conds expected through the forecast period. However, VCSH will continue to arrive across the local terminals, and there is a possibility of brief SHRA at times. SHRA may form later in the afternoon across the interior and W-PR. A Saharan Air Layer will result in hazy conditions late this afternoon through the rest of the forecast period. Wind will remain from the east at around 10 to 15 knots with sea breeze variations after 25/13z.

MARINE . The combination of a long dominant period northerly swell and moderate easterly winds will result in seas between 3 to 6 feet through at least this afternoon, with the highest seas expected across the offshore Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to subside tonight through Tuesday as the wind and swell decrease. A high risk of rip currents will continue across the northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra through this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 30 30 STT 88 77 87 78 / 50 40 30 30

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Culebra- Northwest.

VI . None. AM . None.

AVIATION . AM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 0 mi50 min SE 7G13 87°F 86°F1014.6 hPa
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 18 mi50 min SE 12G17 88°F 87°F1014.1 hPa
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 28 mi68 min E 12G14 85°F 1014.9 hPa
PTRP4 29 mi23 min NNE 6G11 85°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 31 mi42 min 86°F2 ft
41121 40 mi42 min 85°F4 ft
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 40 mi56 min E 8.9G18 86°F
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 44 mi53 min E 4.1 87°F 1016 hPa74°F
MISP4 - 9759938 - Mona Island, PR 48 mi50 min 87°F 86°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Magueyes Island, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJMZ

Wind History from JMZ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Magueyes Island, Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico (2)
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Magueyes Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM AST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:32 AM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:40 PM AST     0.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Guanica, Puerto Rico
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Guánica
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM AST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:32 AM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:20 PM AST     0.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:58 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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