Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Esperanza, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 5:53PM Thursday October 28, 2021 3:49 PM AST (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ725 Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1033 Am Ast Thu Oct 28 2021
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Scattered showers.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Northeast swell around 4 feet. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 1033 Am Ast Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Relatively tranquil marine conditions will continue through Friday, with light to gentle winds and seas of 4 feet or less. A northerly swell is forecast to invade the local waters during the upcoming weekend along with a slight increase in the trade winds. This will result in choppy seas across the atlantic waters and local passages. Mostly isolated trade wind showers will affect portions of the local waters from time to time during the next few days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Esperanza, PR
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location: 18.12, -65.46     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 281502 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1102 AM AST Thu Oct 28 2021

UPDATE.

Overall dry and stable conditions expected to prevail today with only chance of afternoon convection mainly over the central and west sections of PR. Mostly sunny and hazy elsewhere. Otherwise recent TJSJ upper air sounding suggests limited moisture availability in the low levels and dry in the upper levels, with layered PWAT value of 1.30 inches. Low level winds were generally from the SSE less than 10 knots below 500 millibars (approx 20KFT). No change to previous forecast reasoning and short term forecast grids at this time.

AVIATION UPDATE. VFR at all terminals durg prd with few cld lyrs nr FL025 . FL050 . ovr regional waters and en route btw islands. Isold SHRA. SFC wnds fm ESE with sea breeze variation and wnds generally btw 5-12 kts . bcmg lgt/vrb aft 28/23.

MARINE UPDATE. No change to previous marine discussion at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 415 AM AST Thu Oct 28 2021/

SYNOPSIS . Mainly fair weather conditions with generally below normal moisture will prevail through Friday, which will result in limited shower activity. More patchy moisture is expected during the upcoming weekend, which could result in an increase in trade wind showers, however, no significant rainfall is anticipated. More unstable conditions with an increase in convective activity is possible by next week as a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) settles over the eastern Caribbean.

SHORT TERM . Today through Saturday .

Hazy skies with limited shower activity is expected today and Friday as Saharan dust prevails over the local area. South to southeast winds are expected today, which will cause high temperatures to be in the lower 90s across the lower elevations of Puerto Rico, while mid to upper 80s can be expected elsewhere in PR and across the USVI. Winds will then start to gradually become more easterly on Friday and Saturday. Patches of moisture will start to move in on Saturday, causing an increase in the shower activity across the local area.

Surface high pressure across the eastern Atlantic, and a surface low across the northwestern Atlantic, will cause the local pressure gradient to be weak, and the local winds to be light and southerly today. The SFC low will slowly move east and into the central Atlantic, causing a SFC high to gradually develop to the NNE of the local islands, and causing the local winds to gradually become easterly and slightly stronger by Saturday. Upper trough is located over the local islands, but the dry air and mid level ridge are not conducive to an enhanced shower or thunderstorm development.

The latest guidance still insists in drier than normal moisture today and Friday, with limited shower activity. For today, portions of the western interior of PR have a chance of showers in the afternoon due to the combination of the diurnal heating and sea breeze convergence, but this shower activity is expected to be focused in a relatively small area, while the rest of PR and the USVI is expected to observe fair weather. Similarly, only a slight chance of showers is expected on Friday, but a small patch of moisture may bring brief showers to Saint Croix on Friday afternoon. Then the patches of moisture become more noticeable on Saturday, and thus an increase in the chances of showers across the local area. That said, the rainfall totals are expected to be modest on Saturday.

LONG TERM . Sunday through Friday .

A TUTT is expected to settle across the eastern Caribbean south of the area on Sunday and Monday, however, the mid-level ridge will continue to remain strong enough to limit convective activity. Nevertheless, patches of moisture will be moving across to result in trade wind shower activity across portions of the local waters during the overnight and early morning hours, with some of the activity affecting portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI followed by locally and diurnally induced activity across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. The low-level flow is expected to be easterly on Sunday but then become northeasterly during the first half of next week as a low-level ridge settles over the western Atlantic north of the area. Conditions aloft then become more favorable for higher instability between late Monday and Thursday as the TUTT amplifies over the eastern Caribbean with an inverted mid-level trough developing and settling near and south of the area. This will be strong enough to displace the mid-level ridge north and become less of an influence in the weather pattern. Having said this, there is uncertainty in terms of how the moisture field will evolve as model guidance differs in this aspect. The GFS shows moisture levels to be in the near normal range most of the time while the ECMWF model shows more patchy moisture, fluctuating between near and below normal at times. Therefore, convective coverage will be dependent on the evolution of the moisture field with the GFS model favoring more activity compared to the ECMWF model. Given these differences, overall confidence in the forecast for the early to middle portion of next week is low to moderate at this time.

AVIATION . Prevailing VFR conds expected through the forecast period. Hazy skies will continue, but VIS will remain P6SM. Slight chance of -SHRA is forecast, but not expected to affect the terminals. Wind will remain light and variable early today, becoming S-SE at around 10 knots with sea breeze variations developing after 28/13z.

MARINE . Mainly tranquil marine conditions with seas of less than 4 feet are expected to prevail through Friday. Choppy seas are then expected during the upcoming weekend, especially over the Atlantic waters and local passages, as a northerly swell moves across. For beachgoers, there is a low risk of rip currents across all of the local beaches for today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 91 77 88 75 / 10 10 20 20 STT 87 77 87 75 / 0 10 30 30

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . RAM LONG TERM . OM PUBLIC DESK . GRS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ESPP4 - 9752695 - Esperanza, PR 2 mi56 min ESE 5.1G8 84°F 85°F1014.1 hPa
41056 10 mi50 min SE 5.8G7.8 83°F 86°F1 ft1011.8 hPa (-1.9)
CLBP4 - 9752235 - Culebra, PR 15 mi56 min 91°F 86°F1014.3 hPa
CHAV3 - 9751639 - Charlotte Amalie, VI 32 mi56 min 83°F 1014.2 hPa
41052 - South of St. John, Virgin Islands 38 mi50 min SE 5.8G7.8 85°F 85°F2 ft1013 hPa (-2.1)
LAMV3 41 mi56 min 84°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 42 mi50 min ENE 12G14 86°F 85°F2 ft1012.7 hPa (-2.4)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 42 mi65 min ESE 2.9 88°F 1016 hPa71°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 42 mi56 min E 11G16 86°F 86°F1013.4 hPa
CHSV3 - 9751364 - Christiansted Harbor, Virgin Islands 48 mi56 min SE 5.1G8.9 92°F 85°F1014.1 hPa
LTBV3 - 9751401 - Lime Tree Bay, VI 48 mi56 min S 4.1G6 85°F 86°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Esperanza, Vieques Island, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Juan, Luis Munoz Marin International Airport, PR36 mi54 minSSE 99.00 miA Few Clouds90°F67°F47%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJSJ

Wind History from JSJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE10
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S6S64S3S4S4SW4S300SW4SW30SE3S34S6S6SE7--S7S9
1 day agoSE86SE6SE6SE4S3S500S300003S3S30N550S8S8S6
2 days agoE15E12
G19
E6E5E30000--00S3--3--SW4S34NE7NE6S7SE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Ferro, Isla de Vieques, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Ferro
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:19 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:47 AM AST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:55 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:52 PM AST     1.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM AST     Last Quarter
Thu -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Vieques Passage, Puerto Rico Current (2)
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Vieques Passage
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:05 AM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:46 AM AST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:20 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:48 AM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:21 AM AST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:50 PM AST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:56 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM AST     Last Quarter
Thu -- 04:16 PM AST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:19 PM AST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:00 PM AST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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