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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 415 Pm Ast Thu May 2 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: north 4 feet at 11 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Tonight - East winds around 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: north 4 feet at 11 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 10 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers in the evening. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 11 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers. Saturday night - East winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 10 seconds and south 1 foot at 7 seconds. Scattered showers. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Numerous showers in the afternoon. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ700 415 Pm Ast Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . A surface high pressure extending from the western to central atlantic will promote light to moderate trade winds across the regional waters. Seas up to 6 feet are expected across the atlantic waters today due to a subsiding northeasterly swell and the moderate trades. An induced surface trough to our north will yield lighter east to east-southeast winds and promote shower and Thunderstorm development across the area through early next week.

FXCA62 TJSJ 022041 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 441 PM AST Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

A wet pattern is expected for this afternoon into Sunday as the arrival of a mid to upper level trough. According to the GOES satellite Imagery, there is a surface trough just north of the region, resulting in showers, thunderstorms and cloudiness. A Flash flood watch is in effect from Friday 6 AM AST to Sunday 6 PM AST. An improve in marine conditions is forecast for tomorrow.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday...

A variable weather pattern prevailed during the morning and early afternoon hours. Some showers affected northeastern sections of Puerto Rico in the early morning hours. After that, shower developed over the northwestern sections. Strong thunderstorms affected regions of the offshore and nearshore Atlantic waters, therefore, several Marine weather statements ans a special marine warning were issued. Daytime temperatures fluctuated in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the coastal areas and in the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the mountains.

A wet and unstable pattern is expected to continue as an upper-level trough approaches the area from the west. This is allowing an induced surface trough to develop north of the region and for tropical moisture from the caribbean to move into the area, increasing the chances for widespread rainfall and flooding through this weekend. Friday into Saturday continue to appear to be the most active days, with showers and thunderstorms being the dominating features, particularly along the eastern half of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. An upper-level maxima will move across the islands with winds around 80 knots on Friday, and similar speeds will linger through the rest of the weekend.

Due to these conditions, a Flood Watch is in effect from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 2 to 4 inches, especially for the eastern half of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with isolated higher amounts possible between 6 and 8 inches. Elsewhere, 1 to 3 inches are expected. Due to already saturated soils, any prolonged period of heavy rainfall will result in urban and small stream flooding.
Some rivers will likely overflow their banks. Therefore, Isolated life threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible as well.
Please view the FFASJU product for more information.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...

Update: A Flash flood watch will be in effect for Sunday until 6 PM AST for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Lingering moisture and the departing upper level-trough will continue to promote shower and thunderstorm development on Sunday. At lower-levels, a surface high pressure is expected to build over the western Atlantic during the first part of the week. This will promote moderate winds from the east to northeast through the long term period. In addition, the remnants of the previous surface trough to our north or just across the northeastern Caribbean are expected to merge with a frontal boundary across the central Atlantic and linger over the local area through at least Thursday.
Also, at upper levels, another trough will pass mainly to our north from Tuesday onwards, maintaining unstable conditions in general across the region. The highest precipitable water (PWAT)
values are expected during this period, with global guidance suggesting between 2.10-2.25 inches of PWAT from Monday morning through Thursday afternoon. Therefore, any period of moderate to heavy showers across the islands would lead to quick urban and river flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain.
Residents and visitors are encourage to monitor the evolution of the weather conditions during the next 5 to 7 days, and stay alert for the issuance of any possible flood watch/warning products.

AVIATION
(18Z)
VRB weather conditions will persist through the period. SHRA and possible VCTS are still forecast for the terminals through at least 03/02Z, particularly for TJBQ currently as a line of thunderstorms extend form its VCTY to the offshore Atlantic waters. SHRA and TSRA can result in brief MVFR conditions. ESE winds up to 15 kts through 03/00Z, with higher gusts near strong SHRA/TSRA, then increasing after 03/12Z.

MARINE

A surface high pressure extending from the western to central Atlantic will promote light to moderate trade winds across the regional waters. Seas up to 6 feet are expected across the Atlantic waters today due to a subsiding northeasterly swell and the moderate trades. An induced surface trough to our north will yield lighter east to east-southeast winds and promote shower and thunderstorm development across the area through early next week. Another weak northeasterly swell is forecast to arrive across the local area, resulting in building seas again.

HYDROLOGY

A Flood Watch is in effect for for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon. For more details please refer to FFASJU & FFASPN. Unstable conditions (due to an upper- level trough approaching the area from the west and an induced surface trough), increasing moisture, and lighter winds will promote periods of showers and thunderstorms across the local islands. Rainfall accumulations are expected to range from 2 to 4 inches, especially for the eastern half of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands with isolated higher amounts possible between 6 and 8 inches. Elsewhere, 1 to 3 inches are expected.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

Flood Watch from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001>013.

VI...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...None.

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Mayaguez
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:13 AM AST     1.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:02 AM AST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:13 PM AST     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM AST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Puerto Real
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:10 AM AST     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM AST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 PM AST     0.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:18 PM AST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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