Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isabela, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 6:06PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:45 AM AST (08:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 431 Am Ast Sat Oct 16 2021
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering west in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers through the night.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms. Numerous showers.
AMZ700 431 Am Ast Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Gentle winds, generally out of the west to southwest will prevail across the regional waters today, then winds will become variable as they begin to return to our typical easterly pattern on Monday. Unsettled weather conditions are expetted to continue, associated with surface low pressure northeast of the area. Showers and a few Thunderstorms are possible across the local waters for the next few days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isabela, PR
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location: 18.5, -67.01     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 160448 AAA AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 1248 AM AST Sat Oct 16 2021

UPDATE. Showers have cleared off of Puerto Rico and, for the most part, the U.S. Virgin Islands, although showers and a few thunderstorms are still present in the Caribbean local outer waters. Have re-issued the zones to reflect the lower chance for rain over Puerto Rico.

AVIATION. Expect land breezes along the coasts less than 10 knots til 16/12Z, otherwise no changes to discussion below.

MARINE. No changes to marine discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 933 PM AST Fri Oct 15 2021/

UPDATE . The showers and thunderstorms dissipated over land in the late afternoon hours. Thereafter, very little rain has been observed over the local area, but skies have remained mostly cloudy over PR, though mostly clear over the USVI. Some shower activity is possible over the local waters overnight, but the latest guidance is suggesting very modest amounts of rainfall over the local area overnight. The winds will remain very light over the next few days, and therefore the shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoons on Saturday and Sunday favor the interior sections of PR.

AVIATION . VFR conds expected across the local terminals overnight and through 16/16Z. SHRA/TSRA expected after 16/16Z, which could affect the vicinity of TJPS and TJSJ, perhaps even the actual TJSJ terminal. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then from the west with sea breeze variations after 16/13Z.

MARINE . Tranquil marine conditions expected for the next several days, with wave heights under 4 feet. Winds will be at 10 knots or less. Moderate risk of rip currents across some of the beaches of northern PR tonight and Saturday, but low risk for all beaches of PR and USVI starting Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 446 PM AST Fri Oct 15 2021/

SYNOPSIS . Showers and thunderstorms will continue over interior Puerto Rico each afternoon through Sunday with localized urban and small stream flooding. Winds will become easterly and increase only slightly next week. A very gradual cooling and drying trend will continue through early next week, but temperatures will increase afterward.

SHORT TERM . Tonight through Sunday .

A surface low induced by a wide polar trough northeast of the forecast area has continued promoting light west southwesterly winds over the region. This setup is pulling deep layered moisture from the ITCZ all the way to the surface trough, with low level moisture convergence centered close to our region. GOES-16 Precipitable Water imagery showed values around 2.15 inches by late morning. At upper levels, the proximity of a cutoff low over Cuba is providing marginal instability aloft with 500 mb temperatures at -6 degrees Celsius this morning. Meanwhile, during the day less cloud coverage was observed compared to yesterday which allowed heating to take place with surface temperatures surpassing the convective temperature across the area. This setup with surface heating, sea breeze convergence and a low level steering wind flow around 10 knots produced numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms first over western sections of Puerto Rico early in the afternoon and later moving eastward across interior and northern Puerto Rico, including across the San Juan Metropolitan area. A Special Weather Statement, Marine Weather Statement and several Flood Advisories were issued during the afternoon. The bulk of the activity has moved over the east and local waters with a further decrease through sunset over land areas. Tonight showers and isolated thunderstorms can be anticipated over eastern Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands and local waters. By early morning, due to current westerly winds, showers could be possible over western coastal areas of Puerto Rico.

For Saturday and Sunday, precipitable water content is expected to stay just above 2 inches as moisture convergence continues across the area. Winds will gradually shift from west on Saturday to east southeast on Sunday. However, as this happens, steering winds will further decrease to below 5 knots this weekend as indicated by model soundings. Although instability aloft will not be impressive with 500 mb increasing between -5 to -4 degrees celsius through the short term period, enough low level forcing through surface heating and sea breeze convergence will produce lifting to generate slow moving showers and thunderstorms, mainly during each afternoon. The areas most affected are expected across interior Puerto Rico with some of this activity spreading to northern portions of the island late in the afternoon including the San Juan metro area. Therefore, a high potential for urban and small stream flooding across interior and northern Puerto Rico is likely to continue due to heavy rains and thunderstorm activity. Mudslides could be possible in areas of steep terrain due saturated soils from heavy rains in recent days.

LONG TERM . Monday through Saturday .

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 500 AM AST Fri Oct 15 2021/

A mid-level ridge will continue to hold by the beginning of the workweek, while an upper level trough digs east of the Leeward Islands. The trough will have a reflection extending to the surface, that will cause local winds to shift from the east-northeast. This will cause the pressure gradient to remains weak as well, with a low level steering flow around 4 to 5 knots on Monday, and 8 to 10 knots on Tuesday. Even under the presence of the mid-level ridge, moisture content is expected to remain high below 500 mb, with precipitable water values around 1.7 to 2.0. Therefore, a northeasterly wind flow will translate into showers being advected over the northern portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, especially in the overnight and early morning hours. In the afternoon, local effects will combine with the available moisture to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms across the interior and southwestern Puerto Rico. Due to the weak steering flow, this shower activity could linger, resulting in urban and small stream flooding.

By mid-week, the mid-level ridge flattens out in response of another trough that exits the eastern coast of the United States. From the east, another low to mid-level trough moves across the region, dragging additional patches of moisture across the region. In the meantime, a surface high pressure will begin to exit the eastern coast of the United States, causing the steering flow to increase, first to normal values, around 10 to 15 mph. Then, as the high migrates toward the central Atlantic, the steering flow will pick up a bit more. The weather pattern will be more seasonal, with morning activity affecting the eastern sections of the forecast area, followed by convection developing in the afternoon over western Puerto Rico.

AVIATION . TSRA/SHRA along the interior sections of PR will continue to drift to the east/northeast through the evening hours. Tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds possible at TJSJ with this activity. Elsewhere, mainly VCSH/VCTS expected through the evening hours. VFR conditions expected overnight/Sat morning. Low level winds will continue W-SW around 10 kts or less through Saturday.

MARINE . Seas will remain at 4 feet or less for the next several days across the local waters. Winds will be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Unsettled conditions will result in showers and thunderstorms, that could cause seas to become hazardous within the thunderstorms. For the beaches, the risk of rip currents is moderate for the northern coast of Puerto Rico and Culebra and for eastern St. Croix. All local beaches will become low risk by Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 77 88 76 88 / 40 70 30 40 STT 78 87 78 88 / 40 40 40 50

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . ERG LONG TERM . WS PUBLIC DESK . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41121 16 mi49 min 85°F2 ft
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 16 mi51 min S 5.1G6 85°F
PTRP4 16 mi30 min ESE 4.1G6 78°F
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 17 mi49 min 85°F2 ft
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 21 mi51 min ENE 1G1.9 77°F 86°F1010.7 hPa
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 37 mi51 min N 2.9G5.1 77°F 86°F1010.6 hPa
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 47 mi51 min SW 1.9G2.9 79°F 86°F1010.9 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 48 mi45 min SSW 3.9G5.8 81°F 85°F2 ft1010.1 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Arecibo, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Aquadilla, Rafael Hernandez Airport, PR6 mi3.9 hrsS 310.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for TJBQ

Wind History from JBQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------NW50W3W4W5NW5W5W9W8W4SW5W400000S3S3
1 day ago----------00SW4SW5SW4W10W11
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W8W9W5W4W400--------
2 days ago--------------------N3--W9
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--SE400000000

Tide / Current Tables for Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
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Mayaguez
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:52 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:56 AM AST     1.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:10 AM AST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:49 PM AST     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:05 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:52 AM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:53 AM AST     0.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM AST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:46 PM AST     1.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:05 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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