Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Discovery Harbour, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:41PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 3:21 PM HST (01:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:54AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PHZ124 Big Island Southeast Waters- 927 Am Hst Tue Nov 30 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late this afternoon...
Rest of today..East winds to 25 knots. Wind waves 7 feet. Northwest swell 4 feet. Scattered heavy showers late in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Isolated heavy showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 20 knots. Wind waves 6 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered heavy showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 5 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 knots in the evening becoming variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Showers likely.
Thursday..East winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Winds variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Northwest swell 3 feet. Scattered showers.
Friday..West winds 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 feet. Northwest swell 3 to 4 feet. Heavy showers likely.
Saturday..West winds 10 knots rising to 20 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Northwest swell 7 to 9 feet. Heavy showers likely.
PHZ100 927 Am Hst Tue Nov 30 2021
Synopsis for hawaiian coastal waters.. A surface ridge is north of the area and a weak surface trough is nearly stationary near the big island. A cold front will move across the area from the northwest on Thursday night through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Discovery Harbour, HI
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location: 19.05, -155.63     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 301947 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 947 AM HST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. Wet and unsettled weather will remain into next week. Locally breezy easterly winds will turn southeasterly and diminish Wednesday and Wednesday night. Locally heavy rain will be possible throughout this time with a chance for thunderstorms over Maui and the Big Island. Gusty northerly winds will accompany a cold front that will push through the islands Thursday night through Friday. Heavy rain and flash flood potential will exist from Friday into next week.

DISCUSSION. Water vapor imagery shows a nearly stationary upper low centered just south of the Big Island this morning. Model analysis pegged the 500 mb temperature within the center of the closed low over the Big Island at -11 C, which is a warming trend from when it approached from the east yesterday. The cold pool has supported a broad region of lapse rates averaging around 7C/km which has been sufficient to support pockets of thunderstorms as conditionally unstable southerly flow is drawn around the eastern periphery of the low. Although the low will not move much during the next 24 hours, the favorable thermodynamic environment will nonetheless dwindle by tonight as the cold pool warms.

At the surface, a trough axis is centered over Hawaii running nearly perpendicular to the island chain and slowly tracking west. A slug of low level moisture along the eastern flank continues to funnel west-northwestward enhanced by the instability caused by the upper low. In addition to the thunderstorms, flooding heavy rain may occur at times, particular as daytime heating lift commences on the Big Island.

Over the remaining islands, trade wind type showers have been locally heavy but progressive enough to preclude any flooding concerns. This will be a common theme through mid-week. Although periods of drier weather can be expected, occasional waves of moisture wrapping around the low and advecting westward across the smaller islands will support periods of heavier showers within the resident low stability environment.

The focus then turns to the potential for impactful weather late this week and potentially into next week. Model consensus remains outstanding that a deep trough will develop over the central Pacific and drive a cold front through most or all of island chain Thursday night through Friday. As the deepening trough approaches from the north, the closed low currently over the state will transition to an open wave and quickly shear eastward. However, lingering low and mid-level moisture will be readily available for the incoming front. With plenty of moisture already in place, a heavy rain rain and potential flood threat could materialize as early as Friday morning over north-facing slopes of Kauai within stout northerly flow. The threat would then quickly shift to the Big Island where the front appears most likely to stall Friday night through the first half of the weekend.

During the latter half of the weekend into early next week, the characteristic corridor of persistent moist southerly flow will develop east of the low as it closes off near or west of Kauai. This band will contain the greatest potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. Model depictions vary in their placement of their feature and exactly how progressive it is as it shifts westward toward the islands. This is to be expected given that this phase of the low's life cycle is firmly in the extended range.

The general message is that the heavy rain threat and the potential for flooding will increase on Friday (possibly Kauai and more likely the Big Island) and has the potential to further escalate early next week.

AVIATION. An upper low that is currently situated near the Big Island will provide some instability to the eastern end of the state today. This low will gradually weaken tonight, but linger in the area through Thursday. Satellite and radar imagery show enhanced low- level moisture making its way into north and east sections of the Big Island and adjacent waters. Periodic heavy showers and even some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through tonight, especially for Maui County and the Big Island. Prevailing MVFR- level cloud ceilings and visibility are to be expected within the heavier shower activity. Elsewhere, MVFR conditions will be more isolated.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for for mountain obscuration above 2,000 feet across windward portions of the Big Island. This will likely remain in effect through much of the day. This AIRMET may need to be expanded to include portions of Maui County later this morning.

Additionally, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate upper-level turbulence between FL250 AND FL350 over Maui and the Big Island. This is expected to persist through early afternoon but improve by this evening.

MARINE. A low pressure system aloft continues to produce isolated thunderstorms near and east of the Big Island this morning. The low is slowly weakening but should continue to support thunderstorm development near the Big Island and Maui through tonight. Winds over the coastal waters near the Big Island and Maui remain elevated but should be trending lower today and tonight. A Small Craft Advisory covering these conditions is in effect through this afternoon but may be extended through tonight depending on what today's observations indicate.

A series of small northwest swells is expected today through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will lower as the trades weaken over the next couple of days. Surf along south facing shores will remain flat through the forecast period.

Conditions are forecast to change significantly starting late Thursday as a cold front moves into the area from the northwest. Strong northwest to north winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Additionally, a storm-force low is forecast to develop north of the area which will produce a very large north swell that is forecast to fill in across the area on Friday and peak over the weekend. This north swell will likely produce warning-level surf along the north- and west-facing shores.


HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters- Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.



DISCUSSION . Foster AVIATION . TS MARINE . Kodama


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ILOH1 - 1617760 - Hilo, HI 56 mi51 min SSE 5.1G6 78°F 79°F1011.4 hPa

Wind History for Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kailua / Kona, Keahole Airport, HI46 mi28 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F67°F62%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PHKO

Wind History from HKO (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW8NW7W30SE3E7E8E7E6NE4NE5NE4NE3NE4NE5NE3E6SW7S6SW8S8W7SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Honuapo, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Honuapo
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM HST     2.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:53 AM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM HST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:12 PM HST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:04 PM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM HST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Napoopoo, Kealakekua Bay, Hawaii Island, Hawaii
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Napoopoo
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:10 AM HST     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:55 AM HST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:40 AM HST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM HST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM HST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM HST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:43 PM HST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:51 PM HST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Hawaii    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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