Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 10:13 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 154 Am Pdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 15 seconds. Tonight - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 15 seconds. Tue - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 14 seconds.Tue night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Period 14 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 18 seconds. Wed night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 18 seconds. Thu - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Fri - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Fri night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 14 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 291048 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Enjoy this beautiful, quiet morning with temperatures in the 40s/50s as we all know summer is just around the corner. Westerly flow across the entire area again today will lead to clear skies and highs back into the 80s/90s.

Things get more interesting by Tuesday. A large scale upper trough will take shape over the Northern Rockies while height falls east of this trough will allow low level moisture to re-enter the region. A sharpening dryline will slide east across the area during the day as westerly flow aloft mixes drier air to the surface. East of the dryline, strong heating (temperatures in the 90s) will lead to increasing instability while deep layer shear strengthens aloft. A well-timed shortwave will arrive late afternoon Tuesday helping to erode a stout cap as shown by forecast soundings. There is still some uncertainty as to how many storms will form, but hi-res models show development in a very typical area off the Stockton Plateau.
This gives us at least some confidence in this scenario. Will advertise isolated PoPs in the grids for Tuesday with a threat of severe as well.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

After any convection that occurs on Tuesday, efficient moisture return occurs Wednesday morning fueled by lee troughing. By sunrise Wednesday morning, the dryline will be draped as far west as the higher terrain and the TX/NM state line. Looking aloft, flow gradually transitions from zonal to southwesterly as a trough swings into the central Rockies. While the trough is too far north to provide much synoptic ascent, with such rich moisture and surface temperatures in the 90s (aided by a stout low-level thermal ridge), very impressive CAPE alone should be enough to fire convention along the dryline Wednesday afternoon. There is a large amount of agreement between the NBM and LREF clusters of 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE east of the dryline, but the question remains, how far east will the dryline mix by the afternoon and thus, how far west will storm chances stretch. The LREF clusters and the NBM mean generally agree that the dryline makes it to a Midland-Fort Stockton line, limiting better storm chances to the eastern Permian Basin. There remains a low probability (10-30%) that the dryline doesn't mix as far east and may bring locations like Midland/Odessa and Fort Stockton into play as well, but we'll see how the high-resolution convective allowing models respond tomorrow night. For now, the overall thinking is a few storms fire off the dryline in the eastern Basin and lower Trans Pecos but bulk shear is going to be limited by the displacement of the trough and relatively light flow aloft. Even still, with such high CAPE and only 20-25kts of shear should still support the chance for severe hail but locally enhanced shear from convective cold pools or storm splitting may lead to higher severe chances. Stay tuned over the next day or so as we refine the forecast for Wednesday.

For Thursday, the aforementioned upper trough begins ejecting into the central Plains, helping mix the dryline well east of our area, leading a much quieter day, though a storm or two is still possible in the far eastern Basin. The trough also sends a potent cold front into the area Thursday evening, bringing some much-appreciated relief from the 90+ degree weather seen on Thursday in the form of near average conditions. The next shortwave to impact the area is set to lift out of northern Mexico Friday into Saturday, and with better moisture in the area pulled in behind Thursday's front, sets the stage for some good rainfall chances across the Permian Basin.
We're still several days out from this possibility so we don't want to get anyone's hopes up just yet
Stay tuned

-Munyan

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR continues. Westerly winds today switch to the south tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 88 62 92 66 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 85 54 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 91 66 93 69 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 89 62 94 64 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 77 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 83 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 82 49 88 50 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 62 92 66 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 86 64 92 66 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 88 59 95 63 / 0 0 10 10

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

La Paz
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:47 AM MST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM MST     -0.04 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 10:12 AM MST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 PM MST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM MST     0.88 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico (2), Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,