Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Key West, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:00PM Saturday October 16, 2021 5:04 AM EDT (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ044 Expires:202110161445;;764104 Fzus52 Kkey 160834 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 434 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021 Florida Bay, Hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas, And The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico, Including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz042>044-161445- Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 434 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Today..East to southeast winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northwest to north winds near 5 knots, becoming north to northeast. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..North to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..North to northeast winds near 10 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night through Wednesday night..Northeast to east winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Key West, FL
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location: 24.55, -82.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 160854 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 454 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

DISCUSSION. Water vapor imagery highlights a tilted mid-upper level cyclone over the Yucatan and Cuba, while CIMSS mean-layer analyses place the shallower portion of this cyclone over Cuba. A long wave trough in the westerlies supports a cold front spilling east- southeast along the northern Gulf Coast. Stable and dry air to the east of the Bahamas accelerates to the west across South Florida. The transverse bands over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico denote a narrow band of lift along the northwestern flank of the mid- upper level cyclone.

Surface winds at 42023 and 42026 are from the northeast, while winds along the island chain are from the east-southeast. Winds were supposed to be variable at this time. We surmise a subtle surface trough axis is just to the west of the Lower Keys, providing a focusing mechanism for the scattered showers sampled by the KBYX radar. Temperatures along the island chain are 75 to 80 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy.

FORECAST. The cyclone over Cuba will shake hands with the long wave trough today and tonight, lifting north across the Straits, then opening up and spreading east within the developing westerlies aloft. Given that this system has been isolated from the flow for more than a week now, there is not much potency (steep lapse rates/fresh injections of vorticity) remaining. However, given the subtle surface trough very near the Keys and the adequate TPW (~1.6-1.8"), a cascading mesoscale feast could take place as the island chain heats up this afternoon and the cyclone makes its closest approach. Statistical guidance is markedly higher for Key West today compared to the remainder of the island chain. We have held at 30% rain/thunder chances through the afternoon which is above normal, but not quite as high as MOS since the surface trough could wash out at any time.

An anticyclone will develop over the southern Plains today and tonight, driving what's left of the orphaned cold front south through the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. We held onto the slight rain chances tonight and Sunday as drier air invades the 850-500 mb profile from the northwest and north. Freshening northeast breezes Sunday night will herald the leading edge of a subtle air mass change. Moisture convergence along the developing breezes will be limited. Dewpoints Monday afternoon should fall a degree or two below 70, not quite frigid, but better than it has been. An extended period of fresh breezes are expected Monday through at least Wednesday night, with dry and stable air lingering in the profile from about 800-600 mb. Given the boisterous BL and turbulent moisture flux, 30% chances will be retained through Wednesday night.

The long range forecast will hinge upon what may be a developing CAG. There are still too many differences in the upper level pattern over the Western Caribbean, Central America, and the central United States to hang our hat on a wet and breezy end to the seven-day forecast. For now, we nudged POPs up to 40% for Thursday through Friday.

MARINE. There are no watches, warnings or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Small Craft Advisories may be required as early as Monday morning, and may persist for portions of the Keys through Wednesday night. A cold front will approach the Florida Peninsula today and tonight before decaying over South Florida on Sunday. A strong area of high pressure will build across the Southeast United States Sunday and Sunday night. This will result in fresh northeast to east breezes for the coastal waters Sunday night through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION. VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH island terminals through the forecast period. As yesterday, today we expect another cumulus cloud line to develop later today. In addition, any convective activity that develops near the extreme south Florida Mainland will move into our region. Moreover, VCSH conditions are included in the current forecast terminals, consequently, Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with some of these showers. Otherwise, surface winds will be out of the southeast to east during the morning hours. However, during the afternoon hours, winds will shift to be out of the north northwest.

CLIMATE. In 1898, the daily record rainfall of 2.40" was recorded in Key West. Precipitation records in Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Key West 87 78 88 76 / 40 20 10 30 Marathon 87 78 87 76 / 30 20 10 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GM . None.

Public/Marine/Fire . CLR Aviation/Nowcasts . KR Data Acquisition . MRR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42095 13 mi35 min 81°F 85°F1 ft
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 15 mi25 min SSE 8.9G11 80°F 1012.8 hPa71°F
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 17 mi47 min WNW 1.9G4.1 79°F 84°F1012.7 hPa
GKYF1 40 mi125 min 82°F

Wind History for Key West, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West International Airport, FL20 mi72 minESE 410.00 miOvercast80°F75°F85%1012.5 hPa
Key West Naval Air Station, FL23 mi72 minSE 310.00 miFair82°F74°F77%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEYW

Wind History from EYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E6E3E4NE5NE6E6E5NE4E6NE6E6N5NE3NE4E3E3NE3NE3E50SE6E4NE6
1 day agoNE3NE4NE3NE4E5E6E10E10N11NE6NE7NE7NE7E7E4E4E5E7E5E4NE3NE300
2 days agoSE8E9E6SW11SW7NE5E10E6SE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Sand Key Lighthouse, Sand Key Channel, Florida (2)
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Sand Key Lighthouse
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:37 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Boca Grande Channel, Florida Current
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Boca Grande Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:13 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:14 AM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:43 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:42 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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