Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palmetto Bay, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday October 21, 2021 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 7:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ630 Biscayne Bay- 401 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..East northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East northeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis.. Breezy east to northeasterly flow prevails at all waters during the next several days. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will start to increase across the local waters from south to north on Friday and into the rest of the upcoming weekend. Winds and waves may be locally higher in and around any showers or Thunderstorms.
Gulf stream hazards..None the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 21, 2021 at 1200 utc... 11 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 14 nautical miles east of port everglades. 15 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 17 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palmetto Bay, FL
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location: 25.62, -80.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 211927 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 327 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM.

Today through Friday:

Modest upper level ridging continues to encompass the Florida peninsula, while expansive low-level ridging (SFC-850 hPa) continues to advect a slightly cooler and drier airmass over the region. This is further evidenced in the latest GOES water vapor imagery, as a subtle short-wave ridge can be depicted in the mean flow. These features will continue to allow for mostly dry conditions to become realized today over the region today. A slight relaxation in pressure gradient will transpire today as well, owing to the eastward progression of the aforementioned low-level ridge, resulting in a lower magnitude of easterly flow compared to previous days.

By tomorrow, mid-level ridging progresses eastward, as a subtle short-wave impulse originates from the eastern Gulf waters and advects towards the regions. A low-level mass response appears to develop in association with this feature, as breadth of boundary layer moisture approaches from the Bahamas. This will serve as a foci for increasing shower and thunderstorm development over portions of the region tomorrow, particularly for the Atlantic waters and east coast. Forecast soundings sample PWAT values in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 inches, which may be sufficient to support localized flooding in areas where convection meanders or back- builds. Modest westerly flow atop southeasterly boundary layer winds will allow for increased effective bulk shear, which could lead to a few more robust and organized convective cells. Therefore a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out as well.

Maximum temperatures will remain seasonable, around the mid/uppers 80s for most of the region through Friday. A slight uptick in dewpoints Friday will lead to higher heat indices (around low/mid 90s).

LONG TERM.

Friday Night through Wednesday:

A middle to upper level trough moving over the northeastern United States will provide enough synoptic forcing for a weak frontal boundary to slowly slide southwards into the northern Florida Peninsula by Friday night. However the advancement and forward movement of this feature across our region will become slow and stagnant later this weekend as the mid to upper level trough lifts away from the northeast United States and synoptic forcing becomes weak. This stationary boundary and the resultant warm sector to the south (over our CWA) will serve as a foci for numerous shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend into early next week. Continued low-level mass response with the advection of a moist tropical airmass will persist over South Florida during the weekend as rich boundary level moisture streams into the region south of the stalled boundary. Model guidance indicates forecast precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches with a relatively saturated vertical column, indicative of a moist and saturated airmass. Localized flooding due to heavy rainfall will be possible across South Florida this weekend into early next week, especially in locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

There is also the potential for a few strong storms this weekend given the mid to upper level dynamics versus the prevailing surface flow. Aloft, the subtropical jet will meander over the region during this weekend allowing for a strong westerly component in the upper levels, with a southwesterly to westerly component in the mid- levels. At the surface, prevailing easterly flow will continue to advect a moist and unstable airmass into South Florida. Similar to Friday, the differences/change between the upper/mid levels and the lower levels will result in increased bulk shear, which could potentially lead to the development of some robust and organized convection. The amount of insolation and heating will be key in determining if stronger convection can develop and sustain itself, due to the potential of residual cloud cover becoming a limiting factor. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are the primary hazards with the strongest thunderstorm activity this weekend/early next week, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at this time given the differing wind profile in the vertical column.

By Tuesday, the previously stalled frontal boundary begins to push southward across South Florida in response to increased synoptic forcing aloft. The passage of the weak frontal boundary will have negligible changes on our temperatures, however it will usher in a drier airmass and lower dewpoints which will act to limit rain chances across the region. The drier conditions do not appear to last long, as both the European and GFS models both depict the approach of a secondary frontal passage by mid-week with an associated plume of deep tropical moisture being advected northward out of the tropics. As this is towards the end of the extended period, more details on this secondary front will become clearer as we head into next week. Temperatures during the extended period should remain seasonal with the potential of widespread cloud cover/debris due to scattered to numerous convection keeping temperatures a little cooler in some locales.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds generally ENE around 10 kt today, then weakening to 5 kt overnight out of the east. A few isolated showers are possible along the east coast terminals tomorrow morning, with brief bouts of MVFR possible.

MARINE.

A breezy east to northeasterly flow over the Atlantic and Gulf waters will gradually begin to subside today and through the weekend. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase across the local waters from south to north by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and waves may be locally higher in and around any showers or thunderstorms

BEACHES.

As the breezy east to northeasterly flow remains in place on Thursday, a high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. An elevated rip current risk may remain in place through the upcoming weekend as weaker easterly flow continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 76 87 74 86 / 20 50 60 60 West Kendall 73 88 73 87 / 20 60 60 60 Opa-Locka 75 88 74 87 / 20 50 50 60 Homestead 74 85 74 85 / 30 60 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 76 86 75 85 / 20 50 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 75 86 / 20 50 50 60 Pembroke Pines 74 86 73 86 / 20 50 50 60 West Palm Beach 73 86 74 86 / 10 40 50 60 Boca Raton 75 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 60 Naples 72 88 73 88 / 10 40 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . None. GM . None.

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Bhatti Friday Night through Thursday . Hadi

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BBNF1 1 mi115 min 82°F
BBSF1 10 mi115 min 80°F
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 11 mi67 min 1018.4 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 11 mi55 min ENE 11G11 81°F 82°F1018.1 hPa (-0.9)
MDKF1 23 mi115 min 81°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 26 mi115 min 82°F
MNBF1 27 mi175 min 81°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 28 mi115 min 81°F
THRF1 29 mi175 min 80°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 29 mi175 min 81°F
JBYF1 30 mi115 min 80°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 31 mi115 min 83°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 31 mi175 min 82°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 32 mi175 min 80°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 33 mi115 min 83°F
PEGF1 34 mi55 min ENE 11G13 84°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.1)
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 35 mi115 min 83°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 36 mi115 min 79°F
NRRF1 37 mi115 min 80°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 37 mi115 min 80°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 38 mi115 min 80°F
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 38 mi115 min 81°F
TBYF1 39 mi115 min 84°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 39 mi115 min 81°F
LRIF1 39 mi115 min 83°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 41 mi115 min 84°F
HREF1 42 mi115 min 80°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 42 mi115 min 80°F
WWEF1 43 mi175 min 81°F
CWAF1 43 mi175 min 83°F
BKYF1 44 mi115 min 83°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 44 mi115 min E 12 84°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 45 mi115 min 82°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 46 mi115 min 81°F
SREF1 46 mi115 min 81°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 47 mi115 min 83°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 49 mi115 min 81°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE11
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N7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL7 mi62 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds85°F69°F59%1017.6 hPa
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL10 mi59 minNE 1010.00 miFair84°F71°F65%1017.6 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL14 mi62 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F69°F61%1017.8 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL20 mi62 minE 1010.00 miFair85°F66°F53%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMB

Wind History from TMB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12NE9NE10NE8NE5NE4NE3NE5E5E4E5E6E6E5NE3E8E13
G19
E12E14E13E13E12E11E10
1 day agoE14NE10E11E8E8NE4NE7E7E9E10E5NE9NE7NE5NE4NE11
G17
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2 days agoNE12E10NE10NE6NE4NE4N4N6N7N6N4N3N4NE3N3N6E11E17E15E14
G21
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for Cutler, Biscayne Bay, Florida
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Cutler
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:17 AM EDT     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:43 PM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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