Friday, September24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:15PM Friday September 24, 2021 7:47 PM EDT (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 401 Pm Edt Fri Sep 24 2021
Tonight..East southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Monday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Fri Sep 24 2021
Synopsis.. Light to moderate winds this afternoon will generally transition to a northeasterly direction this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will be possible early this weekend before frontal boundary slides through the region late this weekend ending most of the showers and Thunderstorms early next week. Wind and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and Thunderstorms.
Gulf stream hazards..A small northeast swell will be affecting the atlantic waters of palm beach county this weekend. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 23, 2021 at 1200 utc... 17 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 24 nautical miles east of port everglades. 13 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 9 nautical miles east of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside, FL
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location: 25.84, -79.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 242338 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 738 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminsh as the evening progresses. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the overnight hours across all terminals with light and variable winds. Winds will increase out of the east late Saturday morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop once again in the afternoon and evening hours. At KAPF, winds shift around to the west southwest as a Gulf breeze develops.

UPDATE. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually diminsh as the evening progresses. Many areas will remain dry during the overnight hours, however, additional shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible mainly over the local waters as well as the immediate east coast. A frontal boundary will remain stalled out over the Lake Okeechobee region again on Saturday. Plenty of moisture advection will continue across the region south of the front during this time frame. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again especially during the afternoon and evening hours. With a light steering flow remaining in place, the potential for localized flooding will continue across the urban and low lying areas due to slow storm motion. A strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out especially closer to the front during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures on Saturday will generally remain in the upper 80s to around 90 across most of South Florida.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021)

..One More Day of Wet Wetter Before Drier Conditions Late This Weekend Into Early Next Week .

..Increase Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches Of South Florida this Weekend Into Next Week .

SHORT TERM .

Through Saturday:

A weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary lounging across the Lake Okeechobee Region will keep a tight moisture gradient across South FL. Just to show this gradient, MFL’s 24/12Z sounding measured a PW of 2.04 inches whereas TBW and JAX measured 1.53 inches and 0.83 inches, respectively. I don’t know about you but I much rather see the lower humidities and drier weather that the northern portions of the state get to experience. To put these excessive PW’s into perspective, the moving average for MFL is 1.70 inches. With that said, based off this morning’s sounding, South FL is running close to the 90th percentile in respect to the climatological normal. Another day with very weak steering flow, though has a subtle west component. Thus, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast across South FL today, especially during the afternoon hours. Highest chances will shift from west to east, with the Gulf Coast seeing late morning/early afternoon activity and the east coast seeing early afternoon/early evening activity. Due to the aforesaid weak steering flow, slow storm motion is expected along with the increased potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Aside from hydro concerns, lightning and gusty winds are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon. Convection should diminish overnight with activity generally flaring up over the warm Gulf Stream waters in the Atlantic.

Not much change in the forecast going into Saturday. A copy and paste of Friday’s forecast can be inserted for Saturday. One small difference is that the low-level flow will transition to more of a northeasterly flow, except for the Gulf Coast where southwesterly winds will develop once the Gulf Breeze pushes inland by the afternoon hours. Weak steering flow with a subtle westerly component once again Saturday, favoring the east coast for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon through early evening hours. Models suggest a pre-frontal trough dragging across northern areas of the CWA Saturday, more so across Palm Beach County and the Lake Region. The areas closest to the trough may see slightly more enhanced convection due to increased instability. Main hazards once again related to hydro, though with drier air nosing its way into northern areas of the CWA, an isolated damaging wind gust cannot entirely be ruled out.

Temperatures near average for this time of year, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s areawide.

LONG TERM .

Late This Weekend . A stationary front over the Lake Okeechobee region on Saturday will move southward through South Florida on Sunday, as the mid to upper level trough moves eastward from the Tennessee valley into the Mid Atlantic States. This will allow for the steering flow to become more northerly over South florida allowing for drier air to work into the region. Therefore, POPs on Sunday will be in the slight chance over the northern areas with low end chance POPs over the southern areas. The threat of storms will mainly be over the southern areas on Sunday ahead of the front.

Early Next Week . The weather pattern across the United States will become a blocky pattern with a over the Western United States and the Eastern United States with the mid to upper ridge over the Central United States. There will also be a surface high over Northern Florida during this time frame. This will allow for the surface winds to be from the northeast direction with speeds becoming moderate to breezy at times. The mid to upper levels will also remain dry during this time. Therefore, most of South Florida will remain dry except for the eastern areas where isolated showers will be moving into the area from the Atlantic waters.

Middle to End of Next Week . The long range models are showing an mid to upper level low breaking off from the mid to upper level trough over the eastern United States and regarding back into the Southeastern United States. This will allow for deeper moisture to work back into South Florida during this time and bring back scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms.

The long range models are showing Hurricane Sam turning toward the Northern Atlantic waters and keeping the system away from South Florida at this time. Please continue to monitor the the latest information from the Hurricane Center on Hurricane Sam through this weekend into next week.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Northeast winds are anticipated for most areas this afternoon with the exception of along the Gulf coast where a sea breeze will turn winds westerly around 19Z. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through the early evening hours. Temporary lower ceilings and visibilities are possible should a storm impact any particular airfield. Quiet tonight with light and variable winds, with similar weather returning for tomorrow.

MARINE .

Surface winds will begin to shift to a more northeasterly direction as high pressure sets up over the mid-south states this weekend. A light to moderate northeasterly fetch and building (northeasterly) long period swell can be expected. That said, conditions should remain at or below cautionary headline thresholds. Additionally, locally higher winds and seas are possible near convection through the weekend.

BEACHES .

A building long period swell across the Atlantic waters will allow for an elevated risk of rip currents into the upcoming weekend, especially along the Palm Beaches. Moderate northeasterly winds this weekend into next week will also elevated risk for rip currents for rest of the east coast beaches of South Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 76 89 75 89 / 50 70 40 30 West Kendall 74 91 74 89 / 50 70 40 40 Opa-Locka 75 90 75 89 / 50 70 40 30 Homestead 74 89 74 88 / 50 60 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 76 88 75 88 / 50 70 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 76 87 / 50 70 40 30 Pembroke Pines 74 89 74 88 / 50 70 40 30 West Palm Beach 75 88 75 88 / 40 70 40 20 Boca Raton 76 88 75 87 / 40 60 40 30 Naples 74 89 75 90 / 40 50 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update/Aviation . CWC Tonight/Saturday and Marine . SPM Saturday Night through Friday . BNB

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 17 mi48 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 82°F 90°F1014.4 hPa (+0.7)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 21 mi48 min S 2.9 G 4.1 83°F 85°F1014 hPa (+0.5)
PEGF1 21 mi48 min ESE 5.1 G 6 84°F 1014 hPa (+0.7)
MDKF1 47 mi48 min 89°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL22 mi55 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F77°F88%1014 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL22 mi55 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F78°F85%1013.6 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL22 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1014.2 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL23 mi55 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOPF

Wind History from OPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE10E9W12S6SW3W4Calm
1 day agoW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmSW5S743CalmSW4S7S10NE9
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2 days agoN7N4N6NE4NW5NW3N3N5NW3N5N3N6S7CalmCalm4E7SE10SE8SE11W8NW8NW5N3

Tide / Current Tables for Haulover Pier, North Miami Beach, Florida
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Haulover Pier
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Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:11 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:21 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:18 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.31.710.60.40.61.11.82.42.93.13.12.72.11.510.70.81.11.62.22.72.9

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:22 AM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:07 AM EDT     2.00 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:52 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:16 PM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.50.71.7221.70.9-0.3-1-1.3-1.3-1.3-0.80.21.31.71.71.5

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