Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:26 AM   Moonset 1:28 PM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 312 Am Cdt Fri May 31 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Today - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots late this afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Saturday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay.

GMZ100 312 Am Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis - Moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to slightly enhanced wave heights will prevail as gulf high pressure drives the marine forecast.

FXUS64 KBRO 311132 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 632 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico looks to remain in place through the short term period. A shortwave moving through the northern periphery of the ridge will likely enhance forcing over eastern Texas this evening. Most guidance has the bulk of the forcing staying north of the BRO CWA, however the ECMWF continues to track the shortwave a bit further south, clipping the Northwestern portion of the CWA Good surface moisture and plenty of CAPE could support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms if given sufficient forcing to overcome the modest CAP. For this reason, PoPs have been left at 15- 20% for portions of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties this evening.
Additionally, there is a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight over the northern portions of the coastal Gulf waters. Otherwise, rain chances are expected to remain near zero through the period.

Heat remains the primary concern through the period, with heat indices expected to reach 112 degrees for portions of Deep South Texas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 1 PM to 7 PM for Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, Inland Willacy, and Inland Kenedy Counties. Heat indices are expected to top out between 105- 110 degrees for the remainder of Deep South Texas.

A similar story looks likely Saturday, with heat indices topping out around 11-112 degrees again Saturday afternoon. This will likely require an additional heat advisory for Saturday.

Lastly, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds along the coast are expected to build higher seas and increase Rip Current Risk through the period. A High Risk for rip currents are expected tonight and Saturday for area beaches.

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

500 mb high pressure initially centered over Mexico will gradually build north through the period, eventually becoming centered over west Texas. This will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA, with not even the risk for convection off of the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico.

Meanwhile, a steady increase in daytime high temperatures is also anticipated. Although the combination of ambient air temperatures and relative humidity percentages will only support a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT on Sunday, a HEAT ADVISORY is likely to be needed for portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Monday through Thursday, with areal coverage of the HEAT ADVISORY likely to increase each day.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a windy onshore flow through the period. The gradient may be intense enough such that a WIND ADVISORY may be needed over the immediate coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy) Sunday and maybe also on Monday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MVFR ceilings and some slight visibility reductions are being observed at all three TAF sites this morning. Both the visibility and ceilings are expected to improve after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning later this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevlop tonight and continue through the end of the TAF period.

Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period.

MARINE
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Broad surface high pressure across the Northern Gulf and a strengthening surface low over Central Mexico will enhance pressure gradients along the Southern Texas Coast through the short term period. This will support moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas through the period. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM this afternoon for the Laguna Madre and coastal Gulf waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed through the remainder of the short term period, as winds and seas are expected to remain just below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast through a majority of the period courtesy of thermal low pressure over Mexico interacting with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Marine conditions may improve to Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria Wednesday night through Thursday as high pressure builds farther west into the western Gulf of Mexico.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 83 96 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 79 98 80 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 99 81 100 81 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 80 101 80 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 88 83 / 0 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 81 93 81 / 10 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>254-353.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175.

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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:04 AM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:41 AM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:26 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:57 AM CST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:47 AM CST     0.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:28 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:15 PM CST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:18 PM CST     0.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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