Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orangetree, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:54PM Thursday October 21, 2021 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..NEarshore, east northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Offshore, northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East northeast winds around 10 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East southeast winds around 10 knots nearshore and east southeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southwest in the afternoon, then becoming northwest in the evening. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and north 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 359 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis..A light southerly flow will prevail through this evening ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The front will move through the marine area early Friday morning and will bring a light to moderate northerly flow through Friday night. A light to moderate easterly flow develops on Saturday then becomes a moderate southeasterly flow on Sunday and Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orangetree, FL
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location: 26.15, -81.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 211927 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 327 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SHORT TERM.

Today through Friday:

Modest upper level ridging continues to encompass the Florida peninsula, while expansive low-level ridging (SFC-850 hPa) continues to advect a slightly cooler and drier airmass over the region. This is further evidenced in the latest GOES water vapor imagery, as a subtle short-wave ridge can be depicted in the mean flow. These features will continue to allow for mostly dry conditions to become realized today over the region today. A slight relaxation in pressure gradient will transpire today as well, owing to the eastward progression of the aforementioned low-level ridge, resulting in a lower magnitude of easterly flow compared to previous days.

By tomorrow, mid-level ridging progresses eastward, as a subtle short-wave impulse originates from the eastern Gulf waters and advects towards the regions. A low-level mass response appears to develop in association with this feature, as breadth of boundary layer moisture approaches from the Bahamas. This will serve as a foci for increasing shower and thunderstorm development over portions of the region tomorrow, particularly for the Atlantic waters and east coast. Forecast soundings sample PWAT values in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 inches, which may be sufficient to support localized flooding in areas where convection meanders or back- builds. Modest westerly flow atop southeasterly boundary layer winds will allow for increased effective bulk shear, which could lead to a few more robust and organized convective cells. Therefore a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out as well.

Maximum temperatures will remain seasonable, around the mid/uppers 80s for most of the region through Friday. A slight uptick in dewpoints Friday will lead to higher heat indices (around low/mid 90s).

LONG TERM.

Friday Night through Wednesday:

A middle to upper level trough moving over the northeastern United States will provide enough synoptic forcing for a weak frontal boundary to slowly slide southwards into the northern Florida Peninsula by Friday night. However the advancement and forward movement of this feature across our region will become slow and stagnant later this weekend as the mid to upper level trough lifts away from the northeast United States and synoptic forcing becomes weak. This stationary boundary and the resultant warm sector to the south (over our CWA) will serve as a foci for numerous shower and thunderstorm activity this weekend into early next week. Continued low-level mass response with the advection of a moist tropical airmass will persist over South Florida during the weekend as rich boundary level moisture streams into the region south of the stalled boundary. Model guidance indicates forecast precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches with a relatively saturated vertical column, indicative of a moist and saturated airmass. Localized flooding due to heavy rainfall will be possible across South Florida this weekend into early next week, especially in locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

There is also the potential for a few strong storms this weekend given the mid to upper level dynamics versus the prevailing surface flow. Aloft, the subtropical jet will meander over the region during this weekend allowing for a strong westerly component in the upper levels, with a southwesterly to westerly component in the mid- levels. At the surface, prevailing easterly flow will continue to advect a moist and unstable airmass into South Florida. Similar to Friday, the differences/change between the upper/mid levels and the lower levels will result in increased bulk shear, which could potentially lead to the development of some robust and organized convection. The amount of insolation and heating will be key in determining if stronger convection can develop and sustain itself, due to the potential of residual cloud cover becoming a limiting factor. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are the primary hazards with the strongest thunderstorm activity this weekend/early next week, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at this time given the differing wind profile in the vertical column.

By Tuesday, the previously stalled frontal boundary begins to push southward across South Florida in response to increased synoptic forcing aloft. The passage of the weak frontal boundary will have negligible changes on our temperatures, however it will usher in a drier airmass and lower dewpoints which will act to limit rain chances across the region. The drier conditions do not appear to last long, as both the European and GFS models both depict the approach of a secondary frontal passage by mid-week with an associated plume of deep tropical moisture being advected northward out of the tropics. As this is towards the end of the extended period, more details on this secondary front will become clearer as we head into next week. Temperatures during the extended period should remain seasonal with the potential of widespread cloud cover/debris due to scattered to numerous convection keeping temperatures a little cooler in some locales.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds generally ENE around 10 kt today, then weakening to 5 kt overnight out of the east. A few isolated showers are possible along the east coast terminals tomorrow morning, with brief bouts of MVFR possible.

MARINE.

A breezy east to northeasterly flow over the Atlantic and Gulf waters will gradually begin to subside today and through the weekend. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to increase across the local waters from south to north by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and waves may be locally higher in and around any showers or thunderstorms

BEACHES.

As the breezy east to northeasterly flow remains in place on Thursday, a high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. An elevated rip current risk may remain in place through the upcoming weekend as weaker easterly flow continues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 76 87 74 86 / 20 50 60 60 West Kendall 73 88 73 87 / 20 60 60 60 Opa-Locka 75 88 74 87 / 20 50 50 60 Homestead 74 85 74 85 / 30 60 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 76 86 75 85 / 20 50 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 76 86 75 86 / 20 50 50 60 Pembroke Pines 74 86 73 86 / 20 50 50 60 West Palm Beach 73 86 74 86 / 10 40 50 60 Boca Raton 75 86 74 86 / 20 50 50 60 Naples 72 88 73 88 / 10 40 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM . None. GM . None.

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Bhatti Friday Night through Thursday . Hadi

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 13 mi81 min SSE 4.1 90°F 1019 hPa73°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 17 mi48 min 89°F 81°F1018.1 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 33 mi66 min 82°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 35 mi66 min 83°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 40 mi48 min NNE 4.1G4.1 85°F 80°F1018 hPa
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 44 mi66 min 82°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 46 mi66 min 82°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL15 mi73 minENE 410.00 miOvercast87°F68°F53%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11E9E7E8E8E9E7E7NE6NE5NE4NE6NE6NE6NE6E7E13E11E11E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:23 PM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Naples (outer coast), Florida (2)
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Naples (outer coast)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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