Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 12:44 AM   Moonset 11:18 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 513 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.

GMZ100 513 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the northern gulf will support light to moderate winds and moderate seas through the period. Surface low pressure over central mexico could support stronger winds each afternoon through Friday.

FXUS64 KBRO 302351 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 651 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

With no frontal boundaries expected to move over the local forecast area, the short-term forecast period will feature a continued steady state (status quo) pattern of warmth, humidity, and mainly dry weather conditions. Overcast skies will remain in place particularly during the morning and nighttime hours with some breaks in the overcast during the afternoon hours.

Forecast models are signaling at the potential for an isolated/rogue shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday given the robust instability parameters, yet little to no lifting mechanism to support. The best chance for any shower or storm will be located over the northern half of the area (i.e. Northern Ranchlands) as a shortwave is expected to track north of our CWA (i.e. CRP Corpus Christi and EWX Austin/San Antonio's area). The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
in Norman, Oklahoma has a general outlook/risk for thunderstorms over the northern half of our local forecast area for Wednesday.

Tonight and Wednesday night will remain warm and muggy with overnight low temperatures ranging between the mid to upper 70s with similar dewpoint temperatures. There is low, but non-zero probability of some mist/fog development tonight with copious amounts of low level moisture in place. A lot will depend on how strong/weak the winds become tonight.

Daytime high temperatures tomorrow (Wednesday) are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (near 80F over/along the coastal areas).

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The long-term forecast period will feature a continuation, steady state pattern of warm, humid, and mainly dry conditions. Towards the end of the extended (i.e. Sunday-Tuesday timeframe), we could see hot conditions (i.e. triple digit heating) developing over parts of the local forecast area as 500mb geopotential heights increase and a ~591 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds northward into our CWA

Thursday through Sunday, daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (lower 80s along/near the coast). Nighttime lows are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s.

On Monday, daytime highs are expected to rise into the lower 90s to near 100F across the region with the hottest temperatures being located over our far western sections (i.e. Zapata and Starr Counties). Max heat indices are expected to range from 100F-105F with coverage being over the western 2/3rds of the forecast area.

Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day of the long-term period with highs in the low/mid 90s to lower 100s. There will be more coverage in mid 90s to near 100F degrees with the hottest temps again being over our western sections. Widespread heat indices between 100-109F are expected over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

The NWS HeatRisk tool is suggesting mostly moderate risks to heat related impacts through the long-term period with minor risks confined mainly along the coastal areas. By the time we get into Monday-Tuesday of next week, we'll need to monitor trends to see if the risk increases into the moderate to major categories (with triple digit heat and heat indices expected). This ultimately will depend on how strong the aforementioned sub-tropical heat dome gets.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ceilings are currently MVFR at BRO and HRL and VFR at MFE.
Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR levels tonight, before returning to MVFR levels after sunrise. Southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period, becoming gusty Wednesday morning. With winds remaining around 10 knots and cloudy skies expected to persist overnight, fog development looks unlikely, though some slight visibility reductions are possible.

MARINE
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night....Moderate winds and seas are expected through Wednesday night. Wave heights over the Gulf are expected to range between 4-5 feet.

Thursday through Tuesday....Moderate winds and seas are expected to continue Thursday through next Tuesday. Wave heights are expected to range between 4-6 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions are possible at times during this timeframe (especially over the offshore Gulf waters).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 88 77 89 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 91 76 92 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 77 92 78 94 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 92 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 77 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 87 75 87 / 0 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.

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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:20 AM CDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:27 PM CDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Port Isabel
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:23 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:03 PM CDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

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