Lakewood Park, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakewood Park, FL

May 19, 2024 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM
Moonrise 3:48 PM   Moonset 3:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1007 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024

Rest of today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.

Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Monday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.

Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.

Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood Park, FL
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Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 191400 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1000 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Line of showers and isolated storms that moved into northern Lake/Volusia counties near sunrise have weakened this morning, with weak outflow boundary (visible on radar/satellite) just shifting southeast of Orlando Metro area. Some cloud cover progressing eastward across northern portions of east central FL, but breaks in this cloud deck are already occurring. PW values increase to 1.7 to 1.9 inches through early this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary moving into north FL, with greatest moisture primarily near to south of a line from Orlando to the Cape. Model guidance indicating some drier air then moving into areas northwest of I-4 later into the afternoon as front begins to shift into north central FL.

There still remains some uncertainly in overall convective coverage today, especially with recent CAM guidance (notably the HRRR) showing lower shower/storm development through the afternoon. However, with sufficient moisture and daytime heating as highs rise into the upper 80s/low 90s, still forecasting at least scattered coverage of showers and storms developing and pushing eastward and offshore through this afternoon. PoP range from 40-50 percent north of Orlando and up to 60-70 percent to the south where greatest moisture resides and where boundary interactions are more likely with east coast sea breeze.

Temps aloft will be cooler today, around -10C at 500mb, and steering winds around 700mb a little stronger out of the west up to 35-40 knots. This will continue the potential for some strong to severe storms today, with the primary threats being coin-sized hail and strong to locally damaging wind gusts to 40 to 60 mph.
However, a brief tornado can't be ruled out, especially with any storm interactions with the east coast sea breeze near the coast where low level helicity increases. Frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall will also occur with any stronger convection. SPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather southeast of the I-4 corridor and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from along the I-4 corridor to the northwest.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Today-Tonight...Another challenging forecast lies ahead for today with regard to PoPs and the chance for strong to severe lightning storms later this afternoon. For now, temperatures have fallen into the 70s and will not fall but a couple or few degrees more by daybreak. With dew points well into the 70s, the air has a pronounced muggy feel. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures are forecast this afternoon, with the warmest locations expected south around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. It is in these same locations that we will be watching for the highest coverage of shower and storm development this afternoon, based on the latest hi-res guidance.

As a decaying line of showers reaches the northern half of the forecast area this morning, it will send a layer of mid to high level clouds south across the peninsula. Despite this thin and scattered layer of high-altitude cloud cover, insolation should be plenty sufficient for efficient surface heating from late morning onward. Slightly warmer 500mb temps will exist across the south, partly a reason for the higher forecast values there this afternoon. In addition to the thin veil of cloud cover, model guidance suggests that early-day outflow may lay out a boundary for afternoon convection to form along, somewhere in the vicinity of Tampa/Sarasota to Vero Beach/Jupiter. Near this residual boundary, a collision of an active Lake Okeechobee breeze and east coast breeze (ECSB) along the Treasure Coast is forecast by mid afternoon. With this occurring as convective temperatures are reached during peak daytime heating, a speedy growth of showers and lightning storms is expected. Considerable uncertainty regarding convective initiation exists from Sebastian/Melbourne northward, where model soundings suggest surface temperatures may not reach required convT and where the formation of the ECSB appears less likely.

In summary, the highest coverage of lightning storms and thereby, the greater concern for severe weather, will be focused from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast this afternoon. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms does extend as far north as Cape Canaveral to cover a more conditional risk for organized convection. Elsewhere, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists, including Orlando and areas near/north of Interstate 4. The primary concerns today will be large hail (-10C at 500mb) and strong to damaging wind gusts. In addition, there is a non-zero tornado risk, mainly where locally backed winds due to the ECSB could enhance low-level helicity. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will accompany the most organized storms.

Storm activity will linger across southern reaches of the area through mid to late evening, eventually coming to an end around midnight. A nearly stationary cool front will remain across north- central Florida through late tonight, but temperatures should fall further into the 70s and upper 60s by Monday morning due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft.

Monday-Next Weekend...Mid level troughing will extend across the FL Peninsula early in the week with surface flow veering out of the north-northeast through Tuesday. Each afternoon, the east coast sea breeze is expected to push inland as modest PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" remain over the area. Light QPF amounts vary from model to model along the inland-moving sea breeze each day, so confidence in measurable rainfall is generally low Monday but especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier air filters south from Wednesday through late week as surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds across the state. Mentionable PoPs remain confined to the Lake O/Treasure Coast region Wednesday afternoon with drier conditions Thursday into next weekend. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach to near normal (mid/upper 80s) with a few locations along the coast slightly below late May norms (low 80s). A gradual warming trend returns Wednesday as onshore flow resumes and 500mb temps begin to warm, especially inland. Highs back in the low to mid 90s are expected for the latter half of the work week, except where in the mid/upper 80s at the coast behind the daily sea breeze. An early look at the upcoming holiday weekend from the NBME shows a 60 percent chance or greater for high temperatures in the 90s across the area. In addition, a sea breeze collision across the interior may become more slightly more active in the late afternoon/early evening hours, enough to mention 15-20 PoP for now.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A band of showers and isolated lightning storms moving through LEE/DAB is forecast to diminish as it moves southward.
VCSH transitions to VCTS at MCO/ISM/TIX/MLB around 17/18Z where redevelopment of storms is forecast to occur along the boundary.
Higher confidence for stronger storms are forecast to develop along the Treasure Coast this afternoon as the sea breeze and Lake Okeechobee breeze develop. TSRA TEMPOs included for the Treasure Coast terminals 19/22Z. VCTS then lingering at SUA until 01Z.

Southwest winds this morning become west into the afternoon increasing to around 12 kts. Occasional to frequent gusts to 20-25 kts are forecast at most terminals this afternoon. Winds back east along the Treasure Coast late this afternoon as the sea breeze develops.

MARINE
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Today-Tonight...SSW winds this morning 10-15 kt subside before the east coast breeze develops early to mid afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Winds may gust around 15 kt as a result.
Shower and lightning storm development is forecast, especially along and south of Sebastian Inlet, after 2-3 PM. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 kt or greater, large hail, and even a waterspout. The highest chance for strong to severe storms will be across the adjacent Treasure Coast waters. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. Rain and storms may persist into the early morning hours of Monday, predominantly well offshore.

This Week...Seas build up to 5 ft offshore late Monday afternoon and night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas return to 2-4 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 70 82 70 / 40 30 40 20 MCO 89 71 87 70 / 60 20 50 10 MLB 90 71 86 72 / 60 30 50 30 VRB 91 71 88 70 / 70 40 50 30 LEE 88 72 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 SFB 89 70 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 89 71 88 70 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 92 71 88 69 / 70 40 60 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 14 mi40 min 80°F1 ft
SIPF1 24 mi51 min 9.9 86°F 91°F29.89


Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFPR TREASURE COAST INTL,FL 5 sm6 minS 17G253/4 smOvercast Thunderstorm Hvy Rain 79°F73°F84%29.96
KVRB VERO BEACH RGNL,FL 11 sm13 minNW 058 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm 82°F75°F79%29.89
Link to 5 minute data for KFPR


Wind History from FPR
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Oslo, Indian River, Florida
   
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Oslo
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Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Oslo, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Oslo, Indian River, Florida (2)
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Oslo
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Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:27 AM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Oslo, Indian River, Florida (2), Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Melbourne, FL,




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