Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:54 PM   Moonset 9:07 AM

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GMZ250 Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas Out 20 Nm- 1030 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 20 knots. Waves 8 to 10 feet, occasionally seas up to 13 feet, subsiding to 6 to 9 feet, occasionally seas up to 11 feet this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet, occasionally seas up to 9 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet, occasionally seas up to 8 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet, occasionally seas up to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet, occasionally seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet, occasionally seas up to 6 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet, occasionally seas up to 6 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet, occasionally seas up to 8 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 5 to 6 feet, occasionally seas up to 8 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet, occasionally seas up to 6 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 1030 Am Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible through this morning. Seas will remain elevated through Monday morning, therefore, the small craft advisory will remain in effect. Onshore flow becomes weak to moderate tonight, persisting at these levels through the end of the week. There is a 15-40% chance of showers and Thunderstorms daily across the waters through mid week.

FXUS64 KCRP 281108 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 608 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe weather today (Victoria Crossroads) and Monday (all CWA).

- Coastal Flood Advisory and High risk of rip currents through this evening.

A strong shortwave trough will continue to transition from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region through the period with some associated energy making its way across the state. A line of showers and thunderstorms currently crossing the Edwards Plateau is expected to extend southeastward through the day today into our CWA leading to a medium chance (30-60%) of showers/thunderstorms.
Although the current activity is forecast to weaken as it drifts southward into our area, there will still be enough instability (SBCAPE over 2500 J/kg) and little capping at the surface for some of these storms to become strong to severe at times. The main hazards associated to any strong storm that does develop will be damaging winds (DCAPE over 1000 J/kg) and hail. Convection is expected to start across the northwestern tier of the CWA closer to daybreak, and transition eastward reaching the Victoria Crossroads by mid to late morning. Although CAMs are only showing isolated convection over the Crossroads by the afternoon, deterministic models are indicating a very unstable airmass and no capping in place. SPC has maintained a Marginal risk of severe weather that clips into Victoria County through tonight.

Convective chances will decrease overnight as we lose forcing, with only a slight chance remaining across the east. However, chances will increase again on Monday areawide mainly due to the combination of enough available moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7") and a moderately unstable airmass in place (SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg). On Monday the cap will also be weak to non, therefore SPC has maintained the entire CWA under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Again, the main threats will be for damaging winds and hail. But, having said that, models have been trending drier probably due to not enough forcing.

Aside from all of that, there are still some coastal and marine hazards that will persist today, including a Coastal Flood Advisory and a High risk of rip currents. Conditions though are expected to improve by later this evening, as winds weaken offshore and the seas subside. Nonetheless, a Moderate risk of rip currents will remain in effect across area beaches through Monday evening.

Expect warm temperatures with highs in the low 80s to mid 90s today and tomorrow, although tomorrow will be a degree or so warmer. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s areawide.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week

- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek

A more zonal flow will develop Monday night and persist into the week. Moisture and warm air will continue to stream into the area with southeast flow which could lead to diurnal showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. A brief break in convection is still expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure noses into the area. A series of shortwaves will move across South Texas beginning Wednesday evening , leading to a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the work week.

The persistent southeasterly flow will continue to help push long period swell ashore through the middle of this week. Minor coastal flooding and a high rip current risk will be possible through Wednesday, when swell periods should diminish.

Temperatures will be warm through the upcoming week, with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s daily across South Texas. I hate to bring it up this early, but it looks as though heat index values will reach 100-105 across the Rio Grande Plains through early this week.
Some relief may be in sight as a weak cold front approaches the area over the weekend. Model guidance isn't giving us much hope for much cooler conditions, but drier air may filter in as the cold front fizzles out over or just north of the area leading to cooler apparent temperatures. We will have to wait and see how this front actually behaves.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR ceilings prevail this morning, though VCT is currently VFR.
Expect ongoing thunderstorms to the north to move toward South Texas, arriving in the early to mid morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected in and around any thunderstorms. VFR conditions could develop this afternoon and early evening before MVFR ceilings return overnight. Winds will be gusty this morning and, of course, in and around any thunderstorms. Winds will weaken through the evening and overnight hours with light winds expected by the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible through this morning. Seas will remain elevated through Monday morning, therefore, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect. Onshore flow becomes weak to moderate tonight, persisting at these levels through the end of the week. There is a 15-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms daily across the waters through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 87 75 89 75 / 30 10 30 20 Victoria 85 72 87 72 / 50 30 30 20 Laredo 94 73 95 75 / 30 0 20 10 Alice 88 73 91 73 / 40 10 30 20 Rockport 84 74 85 75 / 40 30 30 30 Cotulla 91 72 95 75 / 60 0 20 10 Kingsville 89 75 90 75 / 40 10 30 20 Navy Corpus 86 76 87 75 / 30 20 30 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.

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Corpus Christi
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Sun -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM CDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:07 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Sun -- 04:07 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM CDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:41 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:43 PM CDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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Corpus Christi, TX,