Saturday, September25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ruskin, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:23PM Saturday September 25, 2021 7:59 AM EDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 346 Am Edt Sat Sep 25 2021
Today..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 5 knots then becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Sunday night..North winds around 5 knots then becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots then becoming east in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming north late in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday night..North winds around 5 knots then becoming east around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming north around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 346 Am Edt Sat Sep 25 2021
Synopsis..Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms remain a possibility for the next couple days, particularly over southern waters where more dry and stable air has yet to make it. Over the next couple days, this boundary should sink farther south, drying conditions out and shifting winds more ene, but still allowing for an onshore flow to develop in the afternoon. With a relatively light gradient, winds and seas remain pretty benign, outside of the possibility of storms creating locally hazardous conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ruskin, FL
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location: 27.73, -82.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 250746 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 346 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021

DISCUSSION. Across the CONUS, but particularly over portions of the SE where the pattern has been more static, there has been a pretty significant change synoptically. In a more amplified flow regime, a trough axis is propagating through the Great Lakes region and lifting back northward into the Canadian Arctic. This was the initial feature that helped to push a frontal boundary through Central FL. However, with the parent feature now far removed, forward progress has all but stopped. Southern counties haven't yet had an opportunity to appreciate any change.

To the south of the now stalled boundary, greater instability and moisture remains. There hasn't been any change in the airmass, meaning convection rather typical of late summer should continue today. The seabreeze should work as the early initiating mechanism with outflow boundaries then propagating in different directions supporting new convective development. The boundary itself could also serve to initiate storms, but the forcing is so weak along it that the seabreeze is still most likely to be the most active. Today is the day most favorable for this, but Sunday may also see some additional storms in SWFL. Thereafter, more significant change settles in, completing the transition areawide.

A second trough axis is digging into the Midwest, and negatively tilting as it does so. In the meantime, more subtle shortwaves are propagating through the background flow, keeping things fairly steady-state across the peninsula, and may subtly nudge the boundary farther south. With things generally remaining as they area, the second trough should finally give the frontal boundary the kick to move south of the Florida peninsula as it digs further south and settles over the state.

This change is all well and good, but what does it actually mean for our weather? If you're looking for more pleasant daytime highs, that doesn't look very favorable this week. It is still Florida after all, and it is only late September. However, the airmass behind the front is drier, and this drier air keeps rain chances pretty low (really almost zero) outside of SWFL; this is despite a seabreeze likely still developing at the coast north of the boundary too. So while it stays hot, feels-like temperatures really shouldn't be much hotter than the actual air temperature, which is an improvement. The drier air also favors fewer clouds overnight, and with light winds likely, this also means relatively efficient radiation cooling. Areas away from the coast are likely to see morning lows in the upper 60s, which is a refreshing and noticeable change from the mid 70s generally seen. At this stage, it is subtle, but it is a start.

Once this really settles in over the next couple days, this airmass looks to stay in control at least until the end of the work week. The forecast remains pretty similar each day until Friday, when there may be enough of a moisture rebound to begin to support more storms. Overall, not too bad, and a welcome, subtle change for many over the next few days.

MARINE. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility for the next couple days, particularly over southern waters where more dry and stable air has yet to make it. Over the next couple days, this boundary should sink farther south, drying conditions out and shifting winds more ENE, but still allowing for an onshore flow to develop in the afternoon. With a relatively light gradient, winds and seas remain pretty benign, outside of the possibility of storms creating locally hazardous conditions.

FIRE WEATHER. The peninsula is drying out this week as a more continental airmass takes control, generally shifting winds more ENE, except closer to the coast where onshore flow is still expected in the afternoon. Despite the slight drying, RH values remain above critical thresholds, keeping fire weather concerns fairly low through the week.

Prev Discussion. /issued 143 AM EDT Sat Sep 25 2021/

AVIATION . (06z TAFs) Terminals north of what has transitioned to a stationary boundary look to remain free of convection, despite the development of a seabreeze, with drier and more stable air in place. KLAL and KSRQ are a bit more questionable, and a storm is not completely out of the question, but certainty is not great enough for mention at this point. Southern terminals remain in a region of more favorable instability and moisture, meaning that storms are fairly likely during the afternoon hours as the seabreeze gets going and heating is maximized. VFR should prevail, however, and any flight category reductions are likely to be brief and will be handled with TEMPOs as timing becomes more certain later today.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 91 75 90 73 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 91 74 91 72 / 30 30 30 10 GIF 91 72 90 69 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 89 73 88 72 / 10 10 20 10 BKV 91 68 89 66 / 10 0 10 0 SPG 89 76 88 75 / 10 0 10 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 4

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

Flannery


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GCTF1 6 mi59 min 78°F 72°F
PMAF1 9 mi59 min 73°F 83°F1015.7 hPa (+0.7)
MTBF1 10 mi59 min E 8.9 G 9.9
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 11 mi59 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 87°F1015.8 hPa (+0.6)
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 11 mi59 min E 4.1 G 7 78°F 84°F1016 hPa (+0.5)
EBEF1 13 mi59 min 74°F 85°F1015.5 hPa (+0.6)
SKCF1 13 mi65 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1
CLBF1 14 mi65 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 1015 hPa
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 14 mi65 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 14 mi65 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 27 mi59 min E 5.1 G 8 76°F 85°F1015.8 hPa (+0.4)
42098 28 mi63 min 85°F2 ft
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 35 mi125 min NE 8.9 G 11 75°F 1015.6 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 45 mi59 min NE 6 G 8 75°F 86°F1014.8 hPa (+0.5)74°F
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 47 mi89 min ESE 12 G 14 86°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL10 mi63 minNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds74°F60°F62%1014.8 hPa
Albert Whitted Airport, FL11 mi66 minE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F74°F85%1015 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL13 mi64 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F72°F94%1015.9 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL17 mi66 minENE 310.00 miA Few Clouds76°F69°F79%1015.7 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL19 mi66 minE 410.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1015.6 hPa
Tampa, Vandenberg Airport, FL20 mi64 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1015.9 hPa
Plant City, Plant City Municipal Airport, FL23 mi64 minNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F72°F94%1016.6 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL24 mi66 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCF

Wind History from MCF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E10E9NE9NE6NE7NE5E7E3NE3CalmNE3CalmNE7NE9E15E10E8E10NE7NE6E7NE5NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmNE12NE10E7E5N4W5W4W6W3NW7NW5N6CalmN6NE8E8E9NE7NE7NE7NE8NE9
2 days agoSE4SE3S4S5S4S5S6S9W5CalmNW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Shell Point
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Sat -- 04:21 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:01 PM EDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.822.12.11.91.71.30.90.60.40.30.50.711.31.51.61.61.51.41.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port Manatee, Tampa Bay, Florida Current
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Port Manatee
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Sat -- 02:10 AM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:14 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:09 PM EDT     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.70.80.80.50.1-0.3-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.10.30.70.80.80.70.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.2-0

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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