Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Pines, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:03PM Friday October 15, 2021 11:44 PM EDT (03:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 1:44AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 806 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
Tonight..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast late in the evening, then becoming east after midnight diminishing to around 5 knots toward morning. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming northwest around 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming north around 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..East winds around 15 knots then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 806 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will remain in the region and move eastward Saturday. A cold front is expected to pass over the waters Saturday night into Sunday with deteriorating marine conditions likely, with cautionary or advisory headlines likely needed into the first part of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Pines, FL
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location: 27.81, -82.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 152315 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 715 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

UPDATE. Near record warmth continues as stacked ridging will finally move eastward later tonight into Saturday before a cold front moves through area Saturday Night into Sunday. Mostly clear skies, light winds and warm temps for this evenings activities before some patchy field fog in typical locations overnight. Latest grids and forecasts on track.

AVIATION. VFR conditions continue as light winds become calm overnight with some patchy field fog in normal areas.

Prev Discussion. /issued 142 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

DISCUSSION . A ridge of high pressure remains in control across the SE CONUS as a trough axis propagates eastward across the Great Plains. With the position of the surface high to the north, light easterly flow continues across the peninsula with a weak gradient. The flow is weak enough to allow a seabreeze to develop this afternoon, much like it has been the last few days. However, with a lighter flow today as opposed to yesterday, the seabreeze is initiating a bit earlier.

This doesn't yield much change weather-wise, though. The atmospheric column is fairly dry today, significantly more so than yesterday. The PW value on the morning sounding was only 1.3in this morning, below the value typically needed for convection. Indeed, the profile is also more hostile today, with additional drying in the mid-levels inhibiting even the vertical cloud depth in the CU field. Rain chances are pretty much zero for today and tomorrow with this airmass in place.

As the trough continues its eastward progression, some intensification is expected, along with a tilt in the negative direction. This should allow an attendant cold front to work down into our area and bring a noticeable change to our weather starting late in the weekend. What will be most noticeable by far is the drier air. While it's been dry, the easterly flow has still been conducive to advect some low-level moisture in off the Atlantic (or the Gulf to a lesser extent in the afternoon). However, with a more northerly flow setting up behind the frontal passage, this will advect continental air overhead, and all the way down to the surface. It should also bring in some cooler temperatures, certainly for Monday morning, but afternoon highs are still forecast to get into the 80s (except maybe for Chiefland or Williston).

As the front approaches and passes, winds are expected to increase, clouds roll in, and there may be a few showers or thunderstorms as well associated with the passage. Rain looks more likely for the Nature Coast as opposed to SWFL. This is expected to yield deteriorating marine impacts, but other than typical hazards associated with storms, impacts to land areas should be pretty minimal.

Once the front passes, it looks like there will be a couple days with more NE winds before winds gradually veer more easterly through the week, bringing back more moisture and rain chances towards the end of the work week. With these conditions expected over the next week, it is looking likely that tomorrow should be the last day of very unseasonably warm conditions for the next few days at least.

MARINE . Easterly flow (except near the coast where the flow is turning onshore) fades after today with more NW flow settling in tomorrow as the high pressure feature that has been in control shifts to the east ahead of an approaching frontal system. As the front nears and passes Saturday night into Sunday, deteriorating marine conditions are expected, with cautionary or advisory headlines likely needed into the first part of the work week.

FIRE WEATHER . Stable conditions have continued to limit dispersion values across the area with very light transport and 20ft winds, in addition to relatively light surface winds. This is due to high pressure staying in control, and dispersions are forecast to remain low through tomorrow. Conditions begin to change as a cold front pushes through over the weekend, with some rain chances and higher winds expected. RH values are currently expected to remain above critical thresholds. Overall fire weather concerns (outside of dispersions) are low at this time.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 75 89 71 85 / 0 0 20 0 FMY 73 91 73 89 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 71 91 70 86 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 72 88 72 86 / 0 0 10 0 BKV 67 88 64 83 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 77 88 74 84 / 0 0 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

RJD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLBF1 7 mi110 min N 1.9G2.9 79°F 1013.6 hPa
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 8 mi56 min N 4.1G7 80°F 85°F1014.8 hPa
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 12 mi56 min N 8.9G11 82°F 84°F1014.7 hPa
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 12 mi56 min N 6G8.9 81°F 87°F1014.6 hPa
GCTF1 14 mi56 min 81°F 71°F
MTBF1 14 mi56 min N 11G13
PMAF1 16 mi56 min 81°F 84°F1014.4 hPa
42098 17 mi48 min 83°F1 ft
SKCF1 19 mi56 min N 5.1G8.9
EBEF1 20 mi62 min 81°F 84°F1014.2 hPa
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 20 mi56 min N 5.1G7
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 24 mi110 min N 8.9G9.9 82°F 1014.6 hPa
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 43 mi110 min E 1.9G2.9 79°F 1013.9 hPa
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 45 mi74 min N 9.7G14 83°F 84°F

Wind History for St. Petersburg, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL8 mi51 minN 410.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1013.8 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL8 mi51 minN 410.00 miFair80°F71°F74%1014.4 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL14 mi1.8 hrsN 310.00 miFair78°F61°F56%1013.4 hPa
Tampa, Tampa International Airport, FL17 mi51 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds80°F71°F74%1014.6 hPa
Tampa, Peter O Knight Airport, FL19 mi49 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast79°F72°F79%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSPG

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11SE12SE11E9E9E7E7E6E4E7E8E8E8E4E4E5E8W8N3N7N8N7N6N4
1 day agoE10E10E9E8E8NE9E10E9E9NE10NE9E7E7E6E6E10E8E8E6W6W6N8N6NE9
2 days agoE16E13E12NE11NE12NE11NE12NE10NE10NE11NE9NE9E8NE6NE8NE8NE4NE6NE5N5N7E12E8E13

Tide / Current Tables for Madeira Beach Causeway, Florida
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Madeira Beach Causeway
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:52 AM EDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:35 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:38 PM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current
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Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:42 AM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:54 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:00 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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