Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 12:39 AM   Moonset 11:03 AM

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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 314 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 12 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 314 Pm Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis - Favorable boating conditions are expected from mid to late week as surface high pressure keeps its influence over the local waters, promoting subsiding seas through late week. Isolated showers and lightning storms are possible through the period.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, april 30th.
42 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 301930 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

This Afternoon-Wednesday...A fairly well established cumulus field, hoisted by steep low level lapse rates (7.5-8.0+ C/km) and largely unimpeded surface heating, has unfolded across central Florida this afternoon. A weakly defined east coast sea breeze is gradually moving to the west, currently situated just west of Interstate 95.
This feature will continue a slow march inland this afternoon and eventually encounter the west coast sea breeze. As it does, a few more showers and isolated lightning storms may develop. The highest coverage, based on consistent hi-res model runs, looks to be from Orlando/Kissimmee south along the Kissimmee River after 5-6 PM. Mid level lapse rates are weak and the mid level column is rather dry, so updrafts will tend to struggle with organization. The most organized showers or storms will be capable of brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning strikes, and gusty winds. Activity will trend back toward the east coast as it gradually dissipates this evening, mainly from southern Osceola County to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Drier conditions return by late evening as temperatures are forecast to fall back into the 60s overnight. Tomorrow is nearly a carbon- copy of today, except a few degrees warmer everywhere. Numerous locations west of I-95 will push the 90 degree mark in the afternoon. The east coast breeze is again expected to fire a few showers and maybe an isolated storm or two, primarily from Orlando south. Lows into Thursday morning will again retreat into the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday-Friday...Weak ridging will begin to take hold with high pressure continuing to control our weather at the surface. Low and mid-level synoptic flow becomes light, allowing for a daily sea breeze circulation from both coasts and a collision down the middle of the peninsula. Moisture continues to be focused below H7 with dry air aloft that will likely be quite hostile to sustaining updrafts. On Friday, some of that drier air is forecast to sneak down into the H7-H8 layer. Therefore, slight rain/storm chances (20%) on Thursday go quiet (10%) on Friday. Any activity should remain well inland near the boundary collision. Expect mid-80s beachside, warming to 88- 91F for our inland counties.
Lows will fall into the mid/upper 60s.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous disc. modified)...With continued influence from high pressure over the Atlantic and no discernible fronts nearby, the easterly flow regime will remain dominant into early next week. This will allow for the development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, along with the very low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Without the deep moisture typically seen in a normal wet season pattern, heavy rain, and strong thunderstorms won't be likely through early next week, but the forecast does call for 15-25% rain/storm chances this weekend and "silent" 10-15% chances early next week. Sunny conditions will be ample through the weekend, with highs in the low 90s (mid/upper 80s at the coast) continuing. As ridging strengthens early next week, statistical guidance is hinting at a few mid 90s over the interior.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

CIGs have improved at Treasure Coast sites this afternoon to a mix of MVFR/VFR. Slightly more organized SHRA/TSRA will impact SUA thru 21z with gusty winds possible. Elsewhere, isolated SHRA/TSRA remain possible thru 03z as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Hi-res guidance is less impressed with the east/west coast breeze collision, but still think isolated activity could reach the MCO/ISM terminals in a VCSH/VCTS fashion.

Light and variable winds tomorrow will turn easterly toward the end of the TAF period, as the east coast breeze develops. Isolated SHRA/TSRA are again possible areawide, with a greater focus from MCO/TIX southward.

MARINE
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Tonight-Wednesday...Favorable boating conditions are expected to persist into mid week. SE winds around 10-15 kt tonight will decrease into Wed. morning and veer SW. The east coast sea breeze will increase winds around 12 kt near the coast Wed. afternoon, and the chance for isolated showers and lightning storms will continue over the waters.

Thursday-Sunday...Fairly benign conditions with moderate E/SE winds through the period from 8-15 KT, increasing locally near the coast each afternoon as a sea breeze develops. Seas generally 2-4 FT with a light/moderate wind chop on inland waterways. Isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out, with the best chance overnight/mornings in the Gulf Stream.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Wednesday...Fire sensitive conditions persist with minimum relative humidity values falling into the upper 30 to mid 40 percent range Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light and variable until the east coast sea breeze kicks west, briefly increasing winds out of the east.

Thursday-Sunday...Interior RH minima will continue to fall to around 38-45% with E winds 5-15 MPH, gusting to around 20 MPH, in the afternoon hours by this weekend. Winds will become light overnight and somewhat variable. With high RH recoveries, patchy ground fog could form especially Thu/Fri mornings. Otherwise, slight shower and storm chances (15-20%) each afternoon mainly inland. Lightning risk is low but non-zero, so an isolated strike could cause a fire start or two due to the abnormally dry conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 86 67 84 / 10 20 10 10 MCO 68 90 68 89 / 20 20 10 20 MLB 67 84 68 84 / 20 20 10 10 VRB 66 85 66 85 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 67 89 68 89 / 10 20 10 20 SFB 67 89 67 88 / 20 20 10 20 ORL 69 90 69 89 / 20 20 10 20 FPR 65 85 65 85 / 30 30 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Canova Beach
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Tue -- 12:58 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:07 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canova Beach, Florida, Tide feet

Patrick Air Force Base
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Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:56 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:26 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

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