Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 1:33 AM   Moonset 12:16 PM

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GMZ235 Bays And Waterways From Port Aransas To Port O'connor- 1059 Am Cdt Tue Apr 5 2022
Rest of today - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Bays smooth. Patchy fog late in the morning. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Wednesday night - North wind 20 to 25 knots. Bays choppy to rough. Thursday - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough. Thursday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots shifting west in the afternoon. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Friday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Bays slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Saturday - South wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bays choppy. Saturday night - South wind around 20 knots. Bays choppy to occasionally rough.

GMZ200 310 Am Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
moderate onshore winds will result in seas increasing to 3 to 5 feet by Thursday. Winds and seas are then forecast to decrease through Friday. A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 011132 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 632 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Message:

- Coastal flooding and rip currents are likely along the Middle Texas Coast today and tonight.

Buoy 42019 continues to report an easterly swell of 2-3 feet with periods of 7-8 seconds this morning. While swell heights are being accurately forecast by regional wave models, the observed periods are running slightly higher than forecast. Swell periods are forecast to remain steady through this evening before decreasing. Local forecasting guidelines indicate that minor coastal flooding remains likely during high tide this afternoon, primarily driven by swell periods over 7 seconds. The increased swells will also result in a High Risk of rip currents through early Thursday morning.

Short term model guidance is in good agreement that a conditionally unstable atmosphere characterized by MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg will develop across South Texas by the early afternoon hours. This conditional instability driven by increasing low level moisture (with 00Z HRRR mean PWAT above 1.5 inches) will support a medium chance (30-50 percent) of precipitation from mid-morning through this afternoon. However, a warm layer in the 850-700 hPa layer combined with a lack of strong surface forcing will limit the likelihood of updrafts developing that will be sufficiently strong enough for thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicates that the most likely scenario for thunderstorms will be across the Victoria Crossroads late tonight into early Thursday morning with a line of thunderstorms moving southeast from Central Texas. The probability of this scenario occurring currently looks to be low (less than 20%).

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

Large scale pattern with ridging to the east and troughing to the west will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend.
With that, will see a continued parade of shortwaves across Texas.
Little convection is expected with these shortwaves as mid levels dry air increases and surface moist layer becomes more shallow. We could still see convection developing over the Sierra Madre through Saturday with a low chance of a few storms making it across the Rio Grande into the area before they dissipate. Otherwise can't rule out an isolated light shower, but not expecting anything organized.

Heading into the later half of the weekend and next week will see a further decrease in deep layer moisture which will allow for a warming trend in temperatures. Current guidance indicates a shift in winds above the surface to more south and southwest. H85 temps increase to above 25 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in temperatures above 100 for at least the Rio Grande Plains and around 100 for much of the Brush Country. Will expect dewpoints to decrease a bit in this period, to keep heat index values in check, but with these unseasonably warm temperatures, the risk of heat related impacts will increase next week, especially for those more sensitive to heat.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail across South Texas through the morning hours with showers increasing in coverage by the afternoon. There will be a low to medium chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly near VCT,. The western TAF sites are expected to improve to MVFR by this afternoon and there is a medium chance for the coastal TAF sites to improve to VFR as well.
MVFR ceilings are expected to build back into the region this evening into the overnight hours. Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the entire forecast period with occasional gusts over 20 knots during the afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Moderate onshore winds will result in seas increasing to 3 to 5 feet by Thursday. Winds and seas are then forecast to decrease through Friday. A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 88 75 88 76 / 20 10 10 10 Victoria 86 73 87 73 / 40 30 20 20 Laredo 94 76 94 75 / 30 10 10 0 Alice 89 74 90 74 / 40 10 20 10 Rockport 84 75 84 75 / 20 10 10 10 Cotulla 91 75 91 75 / 40 30 20 0 Kingsville 88 75 89 75 / 30 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 85 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.

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Pass Cavallo
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:54 AM CDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:29 PM CDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pass Cavallo, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:58 AM CDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:46 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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