Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:00 AM   Moonset 4:42 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 835 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of tonight - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming east. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 835 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will be over the area through the week. This will lead to winds generally around 10-15 knots or less through the period. The best chance to see any storms remains this evening into tonight with any storms that manage to push off the west coast.

FXUS62 KTBW 060033 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 833 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Made a few tweaks to the short-term forecast to account for the latest radar trends this evening. Similar to last night, a broken band on showers and storms is generally along and to the east of I-75 from Sumter County south into parts of E Hillsborough and far W Polk counties in WCFL. Convection looks to be attempting to fire in parts of SWFL as well currently, as the sea breeze collision appears to have occurred in areas further south. Expect a few hours of showers and storms to linger for those areas as well before overall trend of weakening area wide occurs later this evening into the early overnight hours. Partly cloudy skies prevail for the remainder of the overnight period with mostly light and variable to E-SE winds and lows once again in the mid to upper 60s, with immediate coastal areas as high as the lower 70s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Adequate moisture and heat today will result in some seabreeze shower and storms mainly late this afternoon and into the evening hours.

As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead.
This will help to suppress any shower active that might want to form in the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in hot days without the help of clouds and storms to cool things down.
High will slowly climb day to day with the peak being Wednesday through Friday where highs could reach the mid to upper 90's inland.

As we go through the weekend a cold front will push through the area helping to cool temperatures back to average with high in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees. A few showers will be possible with the front but for the most part models are keeping it dry as it pushes through.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Evening convection with associated restrictions currently a concern for a few hours for LAL and southern terminals as sea breeze collision induced showers and storms are likely through around 02-03Z before diminishing. Kept convective mention for initial few hours for TPA/PIE, however, threat currently appears a bit less for those terminals. Winds diminish to light and variable to E-SE overnight before increasing out of the SE in the morning, shifting to SW in the afternoon and eventually W-NW for northern coastal terminals during the evening. With a similar but slightly less active evolution on the table for Monday, guidance still reflects a bit of uncertainty for overall convective impacts, therefore introduced a PROB30 group for northern terminals and excluded mention for southern terminals for this cycle, pending further evaluation during subsequent cycles.

MARINE
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure will be over the are for Sunday and through the week. This will lead to lighter winds generally staying below 10 kts through the period. The best chance to see any storms will be this evening as storms push off the west coast.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be possible today. For the work week high pressure will push over the area which will stop any shower activity from developing and helping to dry us out. The driest days look to be Thursday and Friday where RHs look to get into the critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 88 73 90 / 30 20 0 10 FMY 69 91 71 91 / 40 20 10 20 GIF 70 92 70 93 / 30 20 0 20 SRQ 70 87 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 BKV 67 90 65 91 / 30 20 0 10 SPG 74 87 75 87 / 20 10 0 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Aripeka
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Sun -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
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Aripeka, Hammock Creek, Florida, Tide feet

Bayport
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Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:33 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayport, Florida, Tide feet

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