Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Ridge, FL
May 20, 2024 11:25 AM EDT (15:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 4:46 PM Moonset 3:34 AM |
AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 951 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
.small craft should exercise caution late this afternoon - .
Rest of today - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north early this afternoon, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 8 seconds and east 2 feet at 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Friday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 201425 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture (PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from the Cape southward and moving inland.
Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will be the main threats.
N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the interior, south of Orlando.
MARINE
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around 15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and evening.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor.
Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1- 1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C), and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth.
While strong storm development could be limited with some uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie counties where surface instability will be maximized.
Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic, extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with highs forecast near 90 degrees.
Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast)
to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning, primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here.
MARINE
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast.
Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward trend each following day.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0 MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0 MLB 87 73 85 72 / 20 10 50 10 VRB 89 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 10 LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0 SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0 ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0 FPR 90 69 87 70 / 30 20 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
A weak front will continue to progress slowly southward across central FL today. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture (PW values of 1.3-1.4") to allow for some isolated to scattered shower and storm development even behind the front, mainly into the afternoon hours. PoPs range from around 20-40 percent. This activity will largely form along a slight surge in northerly winds behind the front and with the east coast sea breeze forming from the Cape southward and moving inland.
Greatest potential for storms, however, will be across southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast later this afternoon into the early evening, near the frontal boundary where greater moisture/instability will exist. A few stronger storms will be possible, and SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather for today across this region. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph and coin-sized hail will be the main threats.
N/NE winds will become breezy up to 15 to 20 mph toward mid to late afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible. It will remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the interior, south of Orlando.
MARINE
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Today-Tonight...Updated the forecast to increase wind speeds with the surge of northerly winds later this afternoon into this evening behind the front. Winds look to increase closer to around 15-20 knots north of Sebastian Inlet from late day into the evening hours, with seas building up to 6 feet offshore. Have added exercise caution headlines for the Volusia waters and nearshore Brevard waters for late this afternoon, and these headlines will need to be continued into the evening, including the offshore Brevard waters. South of Sebastian Inlet, winds veer to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 knots.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible over the waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet, where a few stronger storms will continue to be possible late this afternoon and evening.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Today-Tonight...Early morning surface analysis has shown a weak cold front sinking into the Florida peninsula, reaching the I-4 corridor.
Widely isolated showers developed overland this morning ahead of the boundary with most convective activity limited to the far offshore Atlantic waters. The front will continue to gradually track southward through the morning, moving south of Lake Okeechobee into the afternoon. Northerly winds behind the front are forecast to increase to around 10 mph, remaining light enough for an east coast sea breeze to develop. Only modest drying is forecast behind the weak front today with model guidance holding on to PWATs around 1.1- 1.4". This lingering moisture could be enough to spark convective activity as the sea breeze moves inland. The current forecast includes a 30 percent chance of showers and storms north of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marian. The greatest coverage of showers and storms lies south of this line (40-50%) where the sea breeze is forecast to interact with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. Surface instability in place could allow for a stronger storm. However, an inversion present above 700mb, warming 500mb temperatures (-8 C), and dry air aloft could all aid in limiting strong updraft growth.
While strong storm development could be limited with some uncertainties, there remains a Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm across Martin, southern Okeechobee and southern St. Lucie counties where surface instability will be maximized.
Little relief from the heat behind the frontal boundary with afternoon temperatures ranging the mid to upper 80s along and north of the I-4 corridor, climbing into the low 90s southward. A few degrees cooler along the coast. Lingering moisture will promote Heat Index values in the mid to upper 90s across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Tuesday...Mid level troughing settles across the western Atlantic, extending southwestward across the Florida peninsula. Weak surface troughing sits off the eastern coast of Florida while surface high pressure extends along the eastern seaboard into the Florida panhandle. Locally, light north-northeast flow will support development of an afternoon sea breeze. Once again, modest moisture remains in place to support scattered showers and lightning storms along developing mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures cool two to three degrees compared to Monday, with highs widely ranging the mid to upper 80s. Areas near Lake Okeechobee will be the warmest with highs forecast near 90 degrees.
Wednesday-Sunday...Ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico slides eastward, extending into Florida. A short wave trough moving into the eastern CONUS will then work to flatten ridging in place by late week. The area of anomalous ridging aloft will support drying conditions and warming temperatures at the start of the extended period. Onshore flow continues to promote an east coast sea breeze regime Wednesday and Thursday with only an isolated mention of convection each afternoon. Surface flow begins to veer southerly Thursday night, returning moisture and a mention of scattered precip chances by the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80s (coast)
to lower 90s (inland) on Wednesday follow a warming trend each day into late week. High temperatures mostly in the mid 90s by Sunday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Continued mainly VFR across ECFL. Some stratus pushing southward from north FL may lead to some IFR/LIFR conds early this morning, primarily north of MCO, and patchy ground fog is producing some MVFR visibilities at VRB/FPR. WRLY morning winds gradually transitioning to NW/N around 10 kts into early afternoon ahead of a N/NNE wind surge that will increase speeds to 15-20 kts with frequent higher gusts. We continue to carry VCSH wording early afternoon for many terminals, except VCTS for Treasure Coast terminals (mid-late aftn), where confidence is higher for convection - closer proximity to a frontal boundary and deeper moisture here.
MARINE
Issued at 419 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary slides southward across the local waters today. North winds increasing to 10-15 kts behind the front will build seas up to 4-5 ft in the Gulf Steam. Winds veer east along the coast with the development of an east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast.
Tuesday-Friday...North winds into Tuesday gradually veer onshore into mid week, remaining 7-12 kts. Light winds then veer southward into Friday. Seas up to 5 ft in the Gulf Stream on Tuesday gradually subside, and seas become widely 2-3 ft by Wednesday evening. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast on Tuesday with coverage following a downward trend each following day.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 83 70 83 70 / 30 10 40 0 MCO 89 70 87 70 / 30 20 50 0 MLB 87 73 85 72 / 20 10 50 10 VRB 89 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 10 LEE 87 69 87 70 / 30 20 40 0 SFB 87 69 87 70 / 30 10 50 0 ORL 88 71 87 71 / 30 20 50 0 FPR 90 69 87 70 / 30 20 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL | 45 mi | 56 min | N 7G | 80°F | 84°F | 29.88 | ||
| 41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) | 48 mi | 30 min | 80°F | 1 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMCO ORLANDO INTL,FL | 8 sm | 32 min | var 05 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 68°F | 62% | 29.90 | |
| KORL EXECUTIVE,FL | 8 sm | 32 min | NNW 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 82°F | 68°F | 62% | 29.91 | |
| KISM KISSIMMEE GATEWAY,FL | 13 sm | 29 min | NW 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 66°F | 55% | 29.91 | |
| KSFB ORLANDO SANFORD INTL,FL | 24 sm | 32 min | N 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 66°F | 62% | 29.91 |
Titusville
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT 3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM EDT 3.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT 3.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:25 PM EDT 3.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:29 AM EDT 3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:31 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM EDT 3.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT 3.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:25 PM EDT 3.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Titusville, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.8 |
| 1 am |
| 3.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.8 |
| 6 am |
| 3.7 |
| 7 am |
| 3.7 |
| 8 am |
| 3.7 |
| 9 am |
| 3.7 |
| 10 am |
| 3.7 |
| 11 am |
| 3.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.8 |
Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT 0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT 3.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT 3.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT 0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT 3.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT 3.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.9 |
| 6 am |
| 3.2 |
| 7 am |
| 3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Melbourne, FL,
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