Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tangelo Park, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:45PM Thursday October 28, 2021 3:59 PM EDT (19:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:24PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 339 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 12 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 12 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 339 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis.. Southerly winds and benign seas will continue to increase as a squall line moves through the local waters into this evening. Boating conditions will remain hazardous through Friday night with strong southwest to west winds and seas building further well offshore. Conditions will slowly improve by the beginning of the workweek.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, october 26th. 39 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tangelo Park, FL
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location: 28.48, -81.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 281456 AAA AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1056 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

UPDATE.

The forecast is mostly on track this morning with little in the way of updates needed to the forecast. A Tornado Watch has been issued for Lake and Volusia counties until 5 PM this evening. The watch will likely either be expanded farther south later this afternoon, or a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be warranted instead with a slightly less conducive environment for tornadoes expected south of the current watch. Furthermore, the Slight Risk for severe storms today has been expanded slightly farther south which now places areas along and north of a line from Melbourne to Kissimmee Prairie in the risk area. A Marginal Risk for severe storms remains placed over areas south of there.

Radar imagery currently shows scattered showers and isolated lightning storms moving through areas mainly along and south of I-4 and developing upstream. Surface analysis charts show a mature wave upstream of east-central Florida with the low pressure center located over southern Missouri and the associated cold front stretching from the triple point over central Alabama into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a somewhat weak warm front is situated over the eastern Gulf and stretches into western Florida. This morning's XMR observed skew-t sounding showed a stable atmosphere in place over the region with drier air, however, soundings upstream showed a primed atmosphere for severe weather. The TBW sounding and SPC's mesoanalysis page show MU CAPE well over 2,000 J/kg, SCP of 11, STP around 1-2, a 40kt LLJ, 35kts of bulk shear, a curved hodograph with critical angle of 61 degrees, SFC-3km SRH of 243 m^2s^2, EHI values up to 3, and conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. The biggest forecast question of the day remains whether we will see that instability move into east-central Florida this afternoon, especially with the earlier precipitation this morning potentially stabilizing the atmosphere a bit ahead of the frontal boundary. We'll have to monitor current trends and whether we can get enough heating and instability this afternoon for severe storms.

However, given the sufficient kinematic and thermodynamic profiles in place upstream ahead of the cold front, severe weather will likely move downstream later this afternoon and enter east- central Florida. Scattered showers and storms will be possible through this morning ahead of the warm front as it lifts north with a rapidly moving cold front outpacing the warm front this afternoon - pushing the warm sector northeastward as the closed upper-level low begins to weaken slightly by this evening. This will help the system speed up as it pivots to the northeast. A rapidly moving squall line will form out ahead of the cold front this afternoon with the best chance for severe storms beginning across the northwest around 1 PM and ending to the southeast by 9 PM across the Treasure Coast. Ahead of the front, wind gusts around 50mph are likely with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph possible in the strongest storms. In addition, one or two tornadoes, small hail, frequent cloud-to- ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible. Highs will reach the low-to-mid 80s west-northwest of Cape Canaveral and the mid 80s to near 90 degrees south.

MARINE.

Today . Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM today for all of the local Atlantic waters into Friday. However, conditions may not reach criteria until a little later in the afternoon as the cold front approaches and moves over the waters. Showers and lightning storms will move over the local Atlantic waters by this afternoon and continue and diminish into the late evening hours. Boating conditions will deteriorate by the late afternoon and continue into the beginning of the weekend. Winds will increase from the southwest at 15-20kts by this afternoon before increasing up to 25kts this evening. Offshore flow should keep seas to 2-3ft nearshore and up to 4-5ft offshore (20-60nm).

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021/

Current . Surface METAR and DRWP data show the weak high pressure ridge has moved offshore the SE CONUS/FL with light return SE-S flow already developing over the peninsula. GOES IR imagery shows a CS debris canopy emanating from the NE GOMEX MCS has overspread the peninsula. Current temps range from the L60s where winds have died off to the M-U60s where a light southerly drift exists. Temps are likely to rise a little through sunrise.

Regional doppler radar imagery shows a large cluster of convection covering eastern AL, the western FL panhandle, and extending S-W over the NE GOMEX. GOES IR imagery indicates an overall warming of cloud tops over the past several hours. Convection remains vigorous over/offshore the central panhandle, near the intersection of the SQLN and the northward moving warm front. A small band of showers extends farther SE along the warm front to just NW of Tampa Bay, lifting slowly NE with the boundary. Based on radar trends and the latest iteration of the HRRR, it appears that most of the precip will stay W-NW of lake County through 12Z/sunrise, though can't rule out a stray shower or two NW of I-4 between 6-8AM.

Today . Little change to the favorable synoptic setup for severe weather, so don't really need to review the specific wind, shear and instability parameters for the 4th time in as many nights. The last few runs of the HRRR have backed off on coverage of discrete warm sector convection ahead of the main SQLN, likely owing to a slightly less unstable air mass initially. Timing for the main band looks similar, reaching Lake/NW Volusia around 17Z/1PM, spreading rapidly east at 50-55mph, while propagating southward through the central peninsula during the afternoon through sunset. A few storms could still remain over the far SE CWA for an hour or so post-sunset, with some weaker shower band possibly redeveloping farther north through late evening. Any remaining activity should clear out around midnight behind passage of the occluded front.

Primary storm threats continue to be strong straight line winds within the SQLN and any cells or bands/segments just ahead of it, with one or two tornadoes also possible. Fast moving torrential downpours and frequent lightning strikes also expected within the stronger convection.

Warm/breezy with gusty S-SW winds developing. Max temps L-M80s NW of I-4 due to earlier onset of showers/storms, U80s across the central/ south. Steady west winds with minimal CAA behind the occluded front tonight. Mins in the M-U60s except in NE Lake/NW Volusia Cos (L60s).

Friday . The strong cold front and associated line of thunderstorms is forecast to be south of the Treasure Coast by sunrise on Friday. Drier air filters in behind the front, with PWATs forecast to drop below 1" across the area. However, model soundings show all of the moisture concentrated between 700-850mb, and latest guidance is insistent on rather high rain chances for Friday, especially along/north of I-4. Looking at the synoptic picture, a very large cutoff low will be centered over the TN River Valley, with the base of the low across the northeastern Gulf Coast. A jet streak rounding the base of the low will maintain strong winds aloft, preventing significant vertical mixing of the narrow low-level moisture layer with the drier air above it.

This should allow scattered showers to develop in the eastern Gulf/Tampa Bay area and progress eastward across the peninsula. These showers will be racing northeastward at around 35-45 mph, and any downpours could be accompanied by gusty winds. As a result, looking at a 30-40 percent chance of rain from Melbourne northward, and a 20 percent chance for the Treasure Coast. No lightning storms are expected. Cooler across the norther areas as highs reach around 80 degrees, increasing to the mid 80s for the Treasure Coast.

Saturday-Sunday . A few showers could linger into Saturday, though rain chances are only around 15 percent. Then, conditions should dry out on completely by Sunday as the large cutoff low moves into the western Atlantic causing a reinforcing cold front to move across Central FL on Saturday night. Breezy conditions continue into Saturday with west winds around 15 mph and some higher gusts.

As promised, the first real cool down of the fall season arrives this weekend. The initial surge of cooler air is expected for areas north of I-4 on Friday night into Saturday morning where lows drop into the upper 50s, and low 60s elsewhere. For Saturday afternoon, highs remain in the mid/upper 70s from Kissimmee to Titusville northward, and around 80 degrees from Melbourne south.

Cooler still for Saturday night into Sunday morning as lows drop into the mid to upper 50s for most, except low 60s for the immediate Space/Treasure Coast. Highs on Sunday in the upper 70s and up to around 80 degrees in the Treasure Coast.

Monday-Wednesday . High pressure builds across the region for the first half of next week, maintaining mostly dry conditions. Near normal temperatures are forecast with highs in the low 80s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION. VFR through ~16Z followed by rapid increase in coverage of showers/TS from WNW-ESE along/just ahead of SQLN. Storm motion vector will be from 250-260 at 45-50KT from ISM-MCO-TIX northward and 35-45KT over the southern aerodromes (MLB-SUA). Threat for IFR VSBYs and G30-50KT with any intense cells/bands. Highest threat from ISM-TIX north. 06Z TAF package attempted to refine most likely times of impacts from strongest winds. Will still likely need short-fuse AMDs for convection occurring outside those narrower TEMPO windows.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Current benign conditions over the local waters (winds <10kt/2-3ft seas) belie the rapid deterioration expected later today-tonight. Expect a rapid increase in S-SW winds to about 20kt by mid-day with SQLN passage across the waters north of the Cape about 2-5PM and to the south 5-9PM. Winds shift to more WSW and increase further (20-25kt) behind occluded frontal passage. Offshore component should keep peak seas at about 6ft well offshore though can't rule out occasional sets around 7ft out toward 50-60nm. SCA will co into effect at 1 PM today for all of the local Atlantic waters, and continue tonight into Friday.

Friday-Saturday . Hazardous boating conditions continue Friday as tight pressure gradient maintains SW/WSW winds 20-25 knots behind the cold front. Seas 4-6 feet nearshore and up to 7 feet offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday night. Boating conditions improve a bit on Saturday, however small craft will probably need to exercise caution due to west winds around 15-20 knots. Seas 3-5 feet.

Sunday-Monday . A reinforcing cold front will move through the area Saturday night, causing winds to veer NW at 10-15 knots on Sunday. Seas diminish to 2-3 feet nearshore and 4-5 feet offshore. High pressure builds into the region on Monday with northeast winds around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 85 66 80 59 / 100 40 40 30 MCO 87 68 81 63 / 100 40 30 30 MLB 88 69 83 63 / 90 50 20 20 VRB 89 71 86 63 / 90 60 20 20 LEE 85 68 80 61 / 100 40 40 30 SFB 85 67 80 61 / 100 40 30 30 ORL 85 68 80 63 / 100 40 30 30 FPR 88 69 85 61 / 90 60 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Tornado Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal Volusia- Inland Volusia-Northern Lake-Southern Lake.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



Fehling/Leahy/Kelly/Volkmer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 46 mi65 min S 14G20 84°F 80°F1006.2 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 49 mi63 min 80°F2 ft
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 64 mi71 min SSW 8.9G13
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 64 mi71 min S 11G15

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando Executive Airport, FL8 mi66 minSSW 810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain82°F76°F82%1006 hPa
Orlando International Airport, FL8 mi66 minSSW 1210.00 miLight Rain83°F74°F74%1005.5 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL13 mi63 minSW 910.00 miLight Rain81°F76°F85%1006.2 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi66 minS 610.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain82°F75°F79%1005.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORL

Wind History from ORL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:45 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 04:22 PM EDT     4.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:20 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:51 PM EDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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