Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 1:21 AM   Moonset 1:18 PM

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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 411 Am Edt Fri May 31 2024
Today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and east 1 foot at 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Tonight - East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Monday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 311127 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 727 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR and mostly dry conditions are expected. Winds will increase into the mid-morning from the ENE at 10-12kts and into this afternoon at 14-16kts with gusts to 22-26kts. Winds will gradually reduce late this evening before increasing again into Saturday morning. VCSH remains in the forecast at KLEE and KISM this afternoon with showers/storms expected mainly over west Florida.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

- Below normal rain chances will continue. Shower chances will mainly focus along the Treasure Coast this weekend.

- Deteriorating boating conditions beginning this afternoon as onshore winds increase.

Today...High pressure over OH early this morning will build Southward and produce a breezy NE wind flow this afternoon. This will push a diffuse east coast sea breeze quickly inland and focus the bulk of afternoon storms on the western side of the FL peninsula. So rain/storm chances are quite low here in ECFL, only 20% over the far interior. Max temps will hold in the mid to upper 80s coast warming into the lower 90s interior. The only chance to equal a record high today will be at LEE (95F 2004) and that looks a bit out of reach. Northeast winds will increase 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph this afternoon.

For the weekend, The high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer Easterly and remain quite breezy Sat, even windy at the coast 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving onshore the Treasure coast. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-30 percent Mon, 30-50 percent Tue-Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu.

MARINE
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will drop southeast and off the Carolina coast Saturday. The high pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north Florida into early next week. Freshening northeast winds this afternoon will increase 15-20 knots and produce deteriorating boating conditions which necessitates a Caution headline for most of the marine zones this aftn. The pressure gradient will be tightest across the southern waters and will support 20 knots tonight through Sat so have raised a Small Craft Adv south of Sebastian Inlet. Conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 knots. Seas building to 3-5 feet by late afternoon today, reaching 6-7 FT in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape tonight and Sat. Seas will fall below 5 FT offshore Sunday. Seas 3-4 FT Mon and 2-3 FT Tue.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy Northeast winds will develop today, becoming East Saturday. Rain chances will be below normal through the weekend.
The best chance for showers will be along the Treasure coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast. The increase in wind speeds, 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values and combined with dry fuels will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions today and Saturday across all of east central Florida.
Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should increase in coverage next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 71 85 70 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 91 71 88 68 / 10 10 10 0 MLB 88 74 85 73 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 88 73 86 71 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 92 71 89 69 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 90 70 88 68 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 91 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 0 FPR 88 72 86 71 / 10 10 20 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575.

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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:15 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:53 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida, Tide feet

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:51 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:53 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2), Tide feet

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