Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
West DeLand, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:48PM Saturday October 23, 2021 5:07 PM EDT (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:49PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 355 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Variable winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 355 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis..High pressure will build toward the mid-atlantic this weekend behind a weakening frontal trough washes out across the waters. Rain chances will increase Sunday into Monday as remnants of this trough lifts back north across the waters. Another area of low pressure will then move toward the eastern seaboard late Monday into Tuesday, dragging another cold front across the southeastern u.s., possibly reaching portions of the east central florida coastal waters.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, october 22nd. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 22 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West DeLand, FL
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location: 28.99, -81.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 232013 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 413 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

DISCUSSION.

Current-Tonight . Scattered showers across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties, as well as the Treasure Coast Atlantic waters ongoing this afternoon. Cells are moving west to southwest around 5- 10 mph. A frontal boundary is located across the southern CWA this afternoon, pushing a broad mid to high cloud deck across the south. Highest PoP chance (PoP chances 20-30 percent) this afternoon will occur along and out ahead of this front, across the Treasure Coast and okeechobee counties. While there hasn't been any lightning strikes associated with these showers so far, forecast models continue to show cooler temperatures aloft ( around -7 to -8C at 500mb) across the south, which is conducive for lightning to occur. Thus, have kept a slight chance for lightning storms through this afternoon and early evening. Rain chances will continue along coastal communities (PoP 20-30 percent) from Cape Canaveral southward through the overnight hours, with only a slight chance for lightning storms across the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday . An inverted trough axis will be located just offshore of south Florida and toward the Bahamas early on Sunday, before lifting northward, brining with it deep moisture into east central Florida through the day on Sunday. At the same time, a high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will shift eastward as an area of low pressure crosses the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Locally, this will cause higher precipitation chances through the day on Sunday, first starting along the coast and the Atlantic as the onshore winds pin the convection to the coast, then spreading inland by the afternoon and early evening as greater instability builds into the area. Current model guidance continues to show high PW values ranging from 1.77-2.07" for Sunday afternoon. Due to this continued high amount of moisture over the local area, have kept higher coverage of showers and storms. Highest PoP chances (50-70 percent) will occur across the south, from Melbourne southward, in the afternoon, with everywhere else having 30-40 percent. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the areas where the highest rain chances are drawn. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday Night-Monday . (Modified Previous Discussion) Inverted trough axis will be lurking just offshore of south Florida and toward the Bahamas early on Sunday. This feature will slowly lift northward and pull deep moisture into east central Florida through the day Sunday as high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas is nudged to the east by an area of low pressure moving across the Ohio Valley. Latest model guidance has brought high PWAT values around 2" further north towards Jacksonville Sunday night, so have bumped interior/northern PoPs up a bit more. This brings 40-50% chances across northern sections of east central Florida, and maintaining 60% along the Treasure Coast.

Cooling temperatures aloft support some lightning storms as well, especially with some shortwave energy passing overhead adding additional lift. Onshore winds should keep most activity along the coast and over the Atlantic through much of the morning, but showers and storms should also quickly spread inland by late morning and into the afternoon as instability is gained. Most activity across the interior should diminish post-sunset, but convergence associated with the inverted trough and low-level winds will continue to bring showers and a few storms in from the Atlantic, with locally heavy rainfall continuing to be possible. Winds will eventually veer to offshore overnight which should then keep most showers and storms over the Atlantic.

Going into Monday, another shortwave passing by combining with lingering deep moisture will keep rain chances fairly high through late afternoon. Latest model guidance has become more aggressive with the onset of west to northwesterly flow, quickly bringing in drier air and pushing out upper level support.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows around 70.

Tue-Sat . Low pressure will move offshore of the Mid Atlantic/near New England Tuesday, dragging a cold front across the SE U.S. Models have trended farther south in how far this front will advance, with the ECMWF in particular pushing it through central FL. Either way, there is little moisture to work with, so not much is expected other than a few showers Tue across the south. Generally dry conditions will then continue into Wednesday as upper-level ridging takes hold.

Moisture rapidly increases from Wednesday night onward as the wind profile turns south to southwesterly ahead of deepening trough across the center CONUS. This trough will head east into late week and develop a surface low, which will drag a cold front through the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe as it lifts up the eastern seaboard. As per usual, finer details such as timing remain uncertain, but chances for showers and storms have been increased from Wednesday night through Thursday night to account for both the slower and faster solutions. Have also added a slight mention in for Friday as well out of respect for the slower ECMWF.

On Sat, breezy/gusty westerly flow will bring some stratocu across the FL peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast is dry for now, later shifts may need to increase clouds and even add a small chance for showers.

AVIATION. VFR conditions outside of convection expected through the TAF period. Higher moisture across the south this afternoon will keep VCSH along VRB-SUA through early this evening. Winds are easterly around 5-10 KT this afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Higher convection coverage tomorrow as higher moisture pushes into the local area. VCSH starting down south (TIX- SUA) 12/13Z with VCTS starting at 15/16Z. Inland sites have VCSH starting at 15Z. North to northeast flow tomorrow around 5-10 KT.

MARINE. Current-Tonight . isolated to scattered showers across the Treasure Coast waters. Cell movement is towards the coast around 10 KT. While lightning hasn't occurred yet today, there remains the potential for lightning to occur across the Treasure Coast waters. Rain chances will continue to be possible along the Atlantic waters overnight. Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 2 ft with a NNE wind around 10 KT. While the dominate period is 8 seconds, there is a small swell with periods greater than 13 seconds present.

Sunday . An inverted trough axis will be located just offshore of south Florida and toward the Bahamas early on Sunday, before lifting northward, bringing with it deep moisture into east central Florida through the day on Sunday. Thus, higher rain and lightning storm chances Sunday, especially across the south. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet, with 4 foot seas building into the far offshore waters by the afternoon. The occasional longer periods that have been present the past couple days will continue Sunday. Winds will be easterly around 10-12 KT.

Monday . Variable winds 10 knots or less becoming W/SW 10-15 knots Monday night as a large low pressure system develops of the Atlantic seaboard. Scattered to numerous showers are expected Monday afternoon, with seas 2-3 feet nearshore and up to 4 feet offshore.

Tue-Thu . West to Northwest flow Tue into Wed morning will weaken and turn southerly late Wed, increasing out of the SW Wed night and Thu reaching 15-20 knots ahead of the next cold front. Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 4 ft offshore Tue-Wed building to 5-6 ft offshore Thu.

HYDROLOGY. The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to hover near Action Stage (2 ft) through at least Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 71 85 72 87 / 10 30 40 50 MCO 73 88 73 89 / 10 40 40 50 MLB 74 85 72 87 / 20 50 60 50 VRB 74 87 73 88 / 30 60 60 50 LEE 71 89 73 89 / 0 30 40 40 SFB 71 87 72 87 / 10 40 40 50 ORL 72 87 73 87 / 10 40 40 50 FPR 72 85 71 87 / 30 60 60 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . Watson MID TERM . Haley IMPACT_WX . Kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi83 min NNE 7 79°F 1017 hPa67°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 56 mi50 min N 8G11 82°F 81°F1015.3 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 60 mi68 min NNE 12G13 77°F 80°F1015.9 hPa (-1.9)61°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL16 mi75 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds87°F65°F48%1014.8 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL21 mi75 minNE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F67°F57%1015.4 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi81 minNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F66%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFB

Wind History from SFB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12E7E5SE3E4SE4000000NW4N6N4N5N5N4N35W450E9
1 day agoE11E6E4000000000000000N43N5NW30E5
2 days agoE10E7NE5NE3E300E30000N3000E4E8E5SE86E7SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (3)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:46 AM EDT     3.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:21 AM EDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:35 PM EDT     3.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:42 PM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (4)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:19 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:35 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:36 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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