Monday, October25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Smyrna Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:45PM Monday October 25, 2021 4:07 PM EDT (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 1019 Am Edt Mon Oct 25 2021
This afternoon..West to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 1019 Am Edt Mon Oct 25 2021
Synopsis..Low pressure developing just offshore the south carolina coast will scoot northeast and away from the area today. A frontal boundary will push southeast across the local waters Tuesday. Boating conditions will start to deteriorate on Thursday as south to southwest winds increase ahead of a stronger cold front.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, october 22nd. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 22 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Smyrna Beach, FL
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location: 29.02, -80.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 252005 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 405 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

DISCUSSION.

Thru Tonight . Shortwave trough axis aloft combined with daytime heating and instability has generated scattered showers and storms, some with gusty winds. The upper support will weaken as the trough axis pushes SE of the area by sunset while at the same time we lose daytime heating. With the exception of lingering showers and possibly a storm across the south this evening, the convection should decrease notably in coverage and intensity by sunset. A frontal boundary will approach Lake and Volusia counties toward morning from the NW which may result in some status across the north but significant fog is not expected as a west breeze will be persistent.

Tue . The front will push SE across the area during the day with winds veering only slightly, from W to WNW. This front will bring lower dewpoints and humidity across the north but the breezy offshore (WNW) flow will prevent any sea breeze. Morning clouds across the north will diminish and reveal mostly sunny skies. But more persistent stratocu will produce a partly sunny day across the south. Even so, with little chance for rain and a breezy offshore wind, high temperatures will soar near 90 along the coast from the Cape south. This will approach the Melbourne record of 90F from 1942. The other records are probably (hopefully) out of reach.

Wednesday-Friday . Dry conditions will continue into the middle part of the week as the upper-level longwave pattern becomes much more meridional with a ridge/trough/ridge/trough pattern situated over CONUS. This will lead to a weak mid/upper level ridge to build poleward with the ridge situated over the Southeast and sandwiched between two strong mid/upper level troughs. With weak high pressure situated over the region, expect dry conditions to persist on Wednesday. The NBM has now caught up to the deterministic and MOS guidance and has trended quite a bit cooler on Wednesday. Could have lowered temperatures even more so as much of models indicate, however, wanted to maintain at least some consistency and opted to lower temps by a few degrees instead. Highs will reach the low-to- mid 80s. Lows will drop down around 60 degrees to near 70s degrees near the coast south of Cape Canaveral.

After Wednesday, is when things will really start to get interesting for east-central Florida as multiple disturbances transit the region. Models appear to have sped up the timing of the system with a pre-frontal shortwave moving into east-central Florida by Thursday which will trigger numerous-to-widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area on Thursday. POPs have been capped around 80% with the best chance north of the Treasure Coast area as the shortwave moves through. Thursday could be an active day but a lot will depend on the timing of the main frontal system with the low pressure center tracking through the Mid- South and before pivoting towards the Northeast on Friday. A very good synoptic setup will be in place on Thursday into Friday as the mature wave deepens over eastern CONUs before decaying offshore. However, a lot will depend on the timing of the system and how much instability is available. For right now, the potential is there for strong-to-severe storms if we can get enough instability. Guidance indicated a strong 40kt southwesterly low-level jet, moderate-to-high shear, and decent mid- level lapse rates on Thursday, especially near the Treasure Coast. Expect highs in the low-to-mid 80s and lows in the low 60s to low 70s.

The cold front will finally pass through the area on Friday which will bring the potential for isolated-to-scattered showers and storms, as the front moves from the northwest to southeast. The best chance for rain will remain near the Treasure Coast area with the front just north of the area. Cooler and drier air will follow with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s west-northwest of I-4 and the low 80s south-southeast.

Saturday-Monday . (previous discussion) Dry/comfortable through the period as the eastern CONUS trough shears out as it drifts across the eastern CONUS/FL this weekend. Westerly post-frontal winds veer to NW-N Sun-Sun night and NE by next Mon as a large high pressure builds across the SE US and Florida. Weekend max temps in the 70s with mins in the 50s for all but the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts. On Mon, max temps warm to near 80F coast/L80s inland with mins U50s inland and L-M60s near the coast in developing onshore flow.

AVIATION. Sct TSRA will affect many terminals through 00Z with potential for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs and gusty winds near 35 knots. Then VFR until 07Z or so when MVFR/IFR stratus is possible esp across northern sections as a frontal boundary approaches. Winds will remain W to WSW 5-8 mph tonight becoming WNW Tue and increasing 12-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

MARINE. Tonight/Tue . Deepening low pressure along the Carolina coast will continue to lift NE away from the area tonight. Tightening WSW pressure gradient will produce 12-15 knots nearshore and 15-20 knots offshore so will headline the offshore waters with a Caution. On Tue, a frontal boundary will push SE across the waters Tue resulting in winds veering out of the WNW 10-15 knots. Seas 2 ft close to shore due to the offshore (limited fetch) flow but build 4 to 5 ft well offshore.

Tuesday-Friday . Boating conditions will deteriorate throughout the week with an upper level disturbance northeast of Florida. Winds will remain from the west-northwest at around 10-15kts building seas to 2-3 ft nearshore with up to 4-5 ft far offshore (20-60nm). A strong cold front will sweep across the region Thursday into Friday which will deteriorate sea conditions further. Winds will veer to the south-southwest on Thursday at 15-25kts, especially over the far offshore Atlantic waters. This will lead to larger swells with heights reaching 3-5 feet nearshore and around 6-8 feet far offshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 70 87 60 81 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 72 88 62 84 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 72 91 63 83 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 72 91 63 84 / 20 10 0 0 LEE 72 87 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 72 88 59 82 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 72 88 61 83 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 71 90 63 84 / 20 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.



SHORT TERM . Kelly LONG TERM . Fehling


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 45 mi49 min WSW 7G9.9 83°F 81°F1011.1 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 47 mi82 min WNW 4.1 84°F 1011 hPa75°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 47 mi41 min 81°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 52 mi37 min SW 7.8G9.7 82°F 83°F1010.2 hPa76°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi77 minSW 610.00 miLight Rain75°F73°F94%1011.2 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL14 mi74 minSW 810.00 miThunderstorm83°F75°F77%1011.2 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL22 mi77 minSW 77.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1010.8 hPa
Orlando / Sanford Airport, FL24 mi74 minWSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F75°F77%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEVB

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12E12E12SE10E60----------------SW5SW5SW5SW7SW12W10
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1 day agoNE10NE10NE8NE10NE10NE8----------------NE4NE4NE4E8E8E8E8E8E12SE8
2 days agoE10E10E8E5E50----------------NW5NW4NW4NW7N6N6NE6NE8NE10NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:04 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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