Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 5:26 AM   Moonset 7:48 PM

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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 313 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening through Thursday morning - .
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 2 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 313 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail through Thursday. Areas of patchy to isolated dense fog will be possible tonight through Thursday morning.
a cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves across the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 082038 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A very warm and humid day has unfolded. Most areas have topped out in the upper 80s to nearly 90F; ironically the water content in the air (high humidity) has kept temps from hitting 90 area wide.
This hasn't stopped heat indices from soaring - areas like Jasper and DeRidder have HI's over 100F this afternoon. It's official...
the first real taste of Summer is here.

The feed of warm, humid air will continue through tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front boundary. Temps in the daytime will top out similar to day - mid to upper 80s with some areas seeing 90 degrees; humidity pushing the heat index into the upper 90s to isolated lower 100s.

Late tomorrow (Thursday) the cold front approaches. This boundary will be the focus for development of showers and thunderstorms across north Louisiana and east Texas. Storm motion indicates most shower and thunderstorm will skirt across north central Louisiana in the late evening or early morning hours of Friday. However, in the event storms take on a more southern track, there does remain the chance of storms as far south as I-10 (the chance of this solution is much lower). With storms, the primary concerns are damaging winds and hail up to an inch. To account for this concern, the Storms Prediction Center has placed all of central Louisiana and down to the I-10 corridor in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather.

Another concern is for the chance of flooding rains with any convection. Areas north of I-10 have been included in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (1 out of 4). In the event of training rainfall or heavy downpours, there could be some flash flood risk. Most convection should be pretty progressive, so the chance of this is low, but not zero. Those concerned parties should continue to monitor forecast trends in coming forecast cycles tonight and tomorrow.

Much cooler and drier conditions to follow on Friday in the wake of the cold front passage.

11/Calhoun

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The long-term portion of the forecast period begins on Saturday with the area in a nwrly flow aloft behind a departing ern CONUS trof while sfc high pressure extending across the Plains yields a nerly low-level flow...with the combo of these features maintaining a dry and pleasant day/night across the forecast area. However this looks to be short-lived as by Sunday, a digging shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while the sfc high pushes ewd and ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 1.9 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and linger through Monday night before the shortwave ejects ewd, dragging a cold front into the area. With the potential for potentially heavy rains during this period, WPC is highlighting mainly our TX zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday (the remainder of the area is generally in a marginal risk).

By Tuesday, the sfc boundary is progged to wash out over the region, with return flow off the Gulf re-establishing itself quickly. Along with weak/nil capping and another weak disturbance looking to scoot past the area, small POPs linger in the forecast through Wednesday.

With cool (IE seasonal) temps expected to begin the long-term after Friday's frontal passage, expect to see a warming trend by late in the period with temps jumping back to the mid/upper 80s for highs with mins back to pushing 70 degrees.

25

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Tightening pressure gradient has resulted in breezy south to southeast winds this morning. Expect this trend to continue through the afternoon before winds decrease marginally in the overnight period. MVFR ceilings have been more stubborn this morning than expected and never really dissipated. They, too will hang around for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening before winds diminish and ceilings can fall. Sub-1000 ft ceilings are expected after 03Z along with some lowered VIS from ground fog. No dense fog is expected.

Winds and VIS improve after 14Z tomorrow morning with the new diurnal cycle.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail through Thursday. Areas of patchy to isolated dense fog will be possible tonight through Thursday morning. Forecast confidence is not high enough to warrant a Marine Fog Advisory tonight, although if one becomes necessary it will be issued.

A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday.
Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves across the area.

66/11

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 92 66 83 / 10 20 50 0 LCH 75 88 71 87 / 0 10 10 10 LFT 78 91 74 88 / 10 10 20 10 BPT 76 88 71 89 / 0 0 10 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Eugene Island
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Wed -- 06:12 AM CDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:17 AM CDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM CDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:05 PM CDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eugene Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Island
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Wed -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM CDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:41 AM CDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:27 PM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:29 PM CDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

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