Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Welaka, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:52PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:33 AM EST (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:202201191015;;598831 Fzus52 Kjax 190109 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 809 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-191015- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 809 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 3 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 809 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Synopsis.. High pressure will be over the waters through Wednesday with light winds expected. Winds will shift to southwesterly Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will cross the waters on Friday, then elevated winds are expected Friday night into the weekend as a coastal low develops. High pressure will build to the west early next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 15, 2022 at 1200 utc... 37 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 46 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 68 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Welaka, FL
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location: 29.39, -81.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 190537 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1237 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Thursday]

Clear skies and VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF cycle as high pressure remains over the regional terminals with calm winds at all sites this hour. Later this morning, the high will shift east-northeast into the Atlantic waters while it's surface axis ridge extends back to the west-southwest over Northeast Florida and mostly sunny skies with some high thin clouds will trail over the TAF sites with south-southeast winds around 5-7 knots by 16Z with a few low level clouds moving onshore from the Atlantic around the periphery of the high. Some increase in the low level stratocumulus clouds are expected after 00Z with winds diminishing to calm inland and light and variable at the coast.

PREV DISCUSSION [816 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

With high pressure shifting over the area, very light winds, and only a few thin cirrus clouds tonight, radiational cooling is expected to take off after sunset. Lows tonight are expected to be cold once again, most of the area will drop down into the 30s and only a few spots along the NE FL coast will see lows in the lower 40s. Light onshore winds at the coast will help to increase moisture just enough across the area to increase frost formation tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for inland SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and a portion in inland NE FL where a light freeze and widespread frost are expected. A Frost Advisory has also been issued for for the rest of inland NE FL and coastal SE GA where frost formation is expected.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night].

On Wednesday, our local area will still be under the influence of surface high pressure as it shifts just offshore into the Atlantic. Dry weather with light winds under mostly clear skies will lead us into a fairly nice day. High temperatures will reach into the middle 60s to lower 70s, and low temperatures Wednesday night will be warmer than the previous two nights with temperatures in the 40s inland and lower 50s at the coast.

On Thursday, an upper level shortwave trough digging southwards over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front towards the Southeast US and arctic high pressure will move down into the upper Mid-west. Scattered to numerous showers are expected ahead of the front on Thursday, but model solutions still differ on the amount of rain expected. The ECMWF is much more aggressive with rainfall while the Canadian and GFS are a bit drier. The front is expected to move over the area Thursday night. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Thursday due to southwest flow ahead of the front, high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A range of low temperatures are expected Thursday night with areas in SE GA behind the front in the lower to middle 40s and areas in NE FL ahead of the front in the lower 50s.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday].

There is quite a spread in model solutions for the long term period, so there is high uncertainty in the forecast. The front will likely become quasi-stationary over our area on Friday as the upper level shortwave trough digs towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Models agree that another shortwave trough near Texas on Friday will interact with the northern shortwave and pass over our area Friday night or Saturday. Rain is expected to continue over our area Friday through Saturday, but it is uncertain how much rain we will get.

The ECMWF brings the northern shortwave more south and advances the southern shortwave faster than the GFS, allowing the shortwaves to phase up and produce a strong low pressure system off the carolina coast next weekend. The GFS and the Canadian advance the southern shortwave slower, limiting the strength of the developing low off the coast. The ECMWF also has a much wetter solution than the GFS and Canadian as the southern shortwave moves over our area Friday night or Saturday.

There is a low chance of some light freezing rain near the Altamaha River in inland SE GA late Friday night/Saturday morning as cold arctic air pushes towards the Southeast US and interacts with precipitation over the area. Regardless of if we get any freezing rain or not, inland SE GA will experience cold rain with expected highs only in the 40s Friday and Saturday and lows in the 30s Friday night/Saturday morning. The rest of the area will see below average temperatures as well Friday and Saturday, and we could see frost and freeze conditions Saturday night.

Rain will be moving out of the area Saturday night, and will be over by Sunday. Dry weather is expected Sunday and Monday, then rain chances will return with another shortwave expected to move over the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually increase Sunday through Tuesday, but still remain a bit below average.

MARINE.

High pressure will be over the waters through Wednesday with light winds expected. Winds will shift to southwesterly Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will cross the waters on Friday, then elevated winds are expected Friday night into the weekend as a coastal low develops. High pressure will build to the west early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk at all area beaches through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER.

High pressure will shift over the area tonight and Wednesday, and winds will be light and variable. Weak transport winds will result in low daytime dispersions for inland SE GA and along the NE FL and SE GA coasts as well as along the St. Johns River basin. Elsewhere, dispersions will be on the lower side, generally 20-30 units. Winds will increase from the southwest on Thursday, resulting in better daytime dispersion values, although far inland SE GA may still have some patches of low dispersions. A cold front will approach the area on Thursday with showers beginning Thursday afternoon. Significant is fog not expected. Freeze and frost conditions are expected for most of the area late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 66 41 70 44 49 / 0 10 40 60 70 SSI 62 49 68 51 57 / 0 0 10 50 70 JAX 69 46 74 53 62 / 0 0 10 40 60 SGJ 68 50 74 55 68 / 0 0 0 20 50 GNV 71 45 75 53 67 / 0 0 0 30 50 OCF 72 46 75 52 71 / 0 0 0 20 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Baker-Bradford- Eastern Alachua-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua- Western Duval-Western Marion.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Central Marion- Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Clay-Eastern Marion- Eastern Putnam-Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-South Central Duval-Trout River-Western Clay-Western Putnam.

GA . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Appling-Atkinson- Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce- Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn.

AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 28 mi108 min WSW 1 37°F 1025 hPa36°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 38 mi33 min NW 1.9G1.9 54°F 61°F1024.2 hPa (-0.7)38°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Last 24 hr
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KXFL

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr--0--------------------000W4NW5NW5W4NW50043
1 day ago00--------------------00NW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W50
2 days agoW5----------------------00W5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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Georgetown
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EST     2.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:42 AM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     2.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:37 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:17 PM EST     2.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:14 PM EST     2.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:13 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida (2), Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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Welaka
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:54 AM EST     3.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:09 AM EST     3.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:44 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:29 AM EST     3.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:58 PM EST     3.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (2), Tide feet
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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