Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Berlin, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:23PM Monday September 27, 2021 1:18 AM CDT (06:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:43PMMoonset 12:22PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Berlin, TX
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location: 29.4, -98     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 270615 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 115 AM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

AVIATION. /06Z TAFS/ Will keep all TAFS VFR for now, but in the 12Z update may need to consider some low clouds after 09Z, based on the 06Z model runs. There should at least be some pockets of mid level clouds by this time but there remains a good spread among model solutions in terms of the increasing chance of rain. For now will keep the lowest clouds as barely VFR at AUS/SAT. The rest of the TAF periods should be much as they have been for the past few days, including mostly light winds below 10 knots along I-35 and a more steady moderate wind with afternoon gusts to near 20 knots at DRT.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 635 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021/

AVIATION . Southeast winds have returned at the surface across South Central Texas. This will gradually increase low level moisture through this TAF period. The main question for the TAF period is will those southeasterly and southerly winds bring back enough moisture for any MVFR ceilings Monday morning. While most of the guidance holds off on the MVFR until Tuesday morning, the hourly GFS numerical guidance (the LAV MOS) is hitting SAT/SSF hard with MVFR and lower ceilings tomorrow morning between roughly 10z and 15z. The first night of return flow is always tricky for both the human forecaster and the models. There are times that the Escarpment helps lift even the limited moisture and decent ceilings result, and other times not much happens. Will side with the low dew points mostly still around 50 degrees at this hour and think that widespread ceilings will hold off on Monday morning. That said, have hedged towards the GFS LAV and added a SCT012 for SAT/SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION . /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night) .

Water vapor loop from the last several hours continues to show an upper low in place across northern Baja into the desert southwest. Ahead of this low, some mid and high level clouds are noted across central Mexico into west Texas. As of early afternoon, temperatures across south central Texas were in the 80s, with near 90 along the Rio Grande. We have seen a subtle increase in low-level moisture as of early afternoon. However, dewpoints are still comfortably low with upper 40s to near 60 across the region. Some higher dewpoints are noted to our south across the middle Texas coast.

A subtle increase in south to southeasterly winds in the low-levels will lead to dewpoints trending upward tonight. This along with some mid and high level clouds will be enough to trend our overnight lows upward, with upper 50s to mid 60s in the forecast. Some low cloud development is possible toward sunrise from the western Hill Country into portions of the Rio Grande plains. High temperatures on Monday will also trend upward slightly with mid 80s to mid 90s expected. Moisture return funneling up to Rio Grande plains should lead to some afternoon convection over the higher terrain (Serranias del Burro Mountains) to the west of the river. For now, we will include a low chance (20%) for the western 1/3 of Val Verde county. At least one of the hi-res models was showing some higher coverage of convection across western Val Verde county and subsequent shifts may need to adjust rain chances upward. The only other area where rain chances return to the forecast on Monday will be across the coastal plains where some isolated afternoon convection remains possible. Overnight lows continue to trend upward Monday night with mid 60s to lower 70s in store.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday) .

Guidance continues to signal an active and wet pattern in the long term, especially late Tuesday into the weekend, with combination of gulf moisture and increasing lift out ahead of the influence of two separate cutoff lows. The initial cutoff low atop the Southwestern US gradually lifts out to the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday but will quickly be replaced by another trough that will be expected to carve out a second cutoff low to the west during the latter half of the week. Vort maxes that rotate around these upper level lows will likely be the main drivers for rounds of convection that progress across the region. Models do show support for the first of these to possibly move across the region during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, I'll caution that the timing of the most active periods versus lulls in activity will be tricky and most defined to how the mesoscale environment plays out. While the rainfall will be beneficial for many after our recent dry stretch, too much rainfall within a short period of time from heavy rain rates could result in the concern for some flooding. Additionally, flooding could become a concern as well with progression through the week as soils become more saturated. While the deterministic and ensemble models show the consistent signal for widespread rain, there remains uncertainty regarding the placement of the zone of the heaviest rainfall. While the ECMWF and it's ensemble members favors the heaviest rain near the coast, the GFS and it's members favor from the Hill Country and to the west along the Rio Grande. The Canadian focuses further to the north closer to the center of the upper level low. However with this in mind, WPC currently highlights a solid swath of 1 to 3 inches across the area over the next 7 days with localized higher amounts.

Tuesday afternoon should see the warmest temperatures in the long term as the majority of the region should see rain hold off until later in the day and into Tuesday night. Temperatures through the rest of the week and into the start of the weekend will see the diurnal range tighten as cooler afternoon highs are to trend from the result of all of the clouds and moisture while the overnight lows are to remain warm and humid.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 71 93 73 90 71 / - 40 50 80 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 93 71 89 70 / - 40 60 80 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 94 71 90 70 / - 40 60 80 50 Burnet Muni Airport 70 91 70 88 70 / - 40 40 70 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 95 72 94 71 / 20 40 40 40 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 93 71 90 70 / - 40 50 80 50 Hondo Muni Airport 70 93 71 91 70 / 10 30 50 60 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 94 71 90 70 / - 40 60 80 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 93 73 89 72 / 10 40 60 80 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 93 73 91 72 / - 40 60 80 50 Stinson Muni Airport 74 95 74 92 74 / - 40 50 70 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . Oaks Long-Term . 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 97 mi48 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 80°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Seadrift, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Randolph Air Force Base, TX18 mi22 minS 410.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1015.5 hPa
New Braunfels Regional Airport, TX21 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRND

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Last 24hrCalmNW3N5N5N4N4NW5NW4CalmCalmE7CalmSW3SE4SE6S7S11SE6SE6E4SE8SE7SE6S4
1 day agoCalmCalmN3N4NW4N5N4NE3CalmSE5W3SE4E8E4NE10E6E3--SE5SE4SE3SE8S5S4
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3N4N3N5N5N3SW3SE5S4SE3NE4SE7E7SE8E6SE8SE4E4SE9S6S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port Lavaca
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Mon -- 05:51 AM CDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 PM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:38 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.21.31.41.41.41.41.41.31.21.21.110.90.70.60.60.50.50.50.60.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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