Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kirby, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:25PM Monday September 27, 2021 10:43 PM CDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:44PMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kirby, TX
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location: 29.42, -98.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 272341 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

AVIATION. VFR conditions continue this evening, but with ample moisture return today lower ceilings are expected tonight across South Central Texas. For the evening hours a lone storm is currently west of the Rio Grande River, and while the main storm will go south of DRT a few showers are possible through the evening. Dry weather will prevail across the area tonight through Tuesday morning. MVFR ceilings should begin to build in to the I-35 terminals between 08-09z with IFR ceilings possibly by 10z. The latest model runs also have some brief MVFR reaching DRT just before sunrise as well. Ceilings will gradually lift through the morning hours with VFR conditions returning by 17z. Precipitation wise, high resolution models show isolated shower and thunderstorm activity mainly around the AUS terminal Tuesday afternoon, with lesser chances at SAT/SSF. For this reason have included VCTS at AUS but left it out of other terminals. Rain chances also look to increase at DRT just at the end of their 24 hour TAF period, so a precipitation mention may be added with the 06z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night) .

A cutoff upper level low, as seen on water vapor imagery, is currently spinning along the Arizona/New Mexico border. This system is pushing moisture to near the Rio Grande where some minor rain echoes have moved into Val Verde County. Elsewhere, mid to high level clouds are spreading across the region with pockets of generally fair weather cumulus. Despite this cloud cover, temperatures warm up into the mid to upper 80s across the Hill Country and into the lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Most of the region will remain rain free today other than the moisture advancing through Val Verde County. This evening into tonight could see an isolated cell try to move across the Rio Grande from off Northern Mexico as depicted from one or two outlier hi-res models. Otherwise, expect a dry night with warm and humid conditions where overnight lows trend in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday should start off generally rain free for the majority of the region but this changes with progression through the day and into Tuesday night. With plenty of gulf moisture already in place across the region and expected approach of an upper level jet streak/vort max from the west around the base of the upper low, should lead to the most active weather to occur across the region from Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will be in some sort of organized line or complex moving generally from west to east. There are hints, including from some of the hi-res guidance, that daytime heating could also spark scattered activity across the region in advance of the more organized convection arriving later in the period. Deep moisture with PWATs increasing to above 1.75 inches, moderate instability with SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and some lower end but sufficient bulk shear values of around 25 to 35 knots could result in isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Main hazards with this activity would be strong to damaging winds and small to marginally large hail. SPC highlights a portion of the Southern Edwards Plateau to portions of the Rio Grande in a marginal risk on the latest day 2 outlook. However, the greatest concern from this convection will be locally heavy rainfall where isolated spots may pick up 2 to 5 inches in a short period of time. Despite the dry spell recently, this could still lead to minor flooding concerns at some locations. The Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC will include a large portion of the CWA in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Temperatures for Tuesday should still climb into the upper 80s and low to mid 90s during the afternoon as result of the drier start to the day. Tuesday night will be very humid with overnight lows only reaching down into the upper 60s to mid 70s given all the cloud cover and expected rainfall/storms across the region.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday) .

Our active weather pattern shows little to no sign of letting up through this weekend as a series of disturbances round the base of two separate, but distinct upper level troughs. The first of these more robust disturbances will likely be an ongoing event on Wednesday morning, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected to be in play over the CWA. Locally heavy rainfall along with isolated flooding will be possible as showers and storms move through. Long range guidance continues to come into better agreement on the timing of heavier precip arrival through late week.

Our first round of widespread showers and storms will move through from west to east on Wednesday morning and even stretch into the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. This will be due to the presence of an upper low lifting northeast and becoming absorbed by the longwave troughing over the western CONUS. We should see a bit of a lull between heavier rainfall on Thursday, but widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop yet again on Thursday afternoon and evening within an increasingly moist and unstable environment. A mid-level low will become cutoff from the longwave troughing over the western US, and slowly meander southward over the southwestern United States. This will place South-Central Texas in a favorable region for enhanced lift, especially with a 300mb jet streak of 40-60 kts in place over the Rio Grande Valley, setting most of the region within the left exit region. Model forecast soundings indicate long skinny CAPE profiles, low and mid- level RH values about 75% through midday Friday, PWATs some 1-2 SD's above the mean for late September/early October, and a rather deep warm cloud layer of 10k- 15k feet, aiding in the support of rather efficient warm-rain processes. Additionally, cloud layer winds should be on the slower side, but not entirely favorable (around 15-20 kts), and upshear vectors support somewhat slower storm motion, so training of thunderstorms could become an issue. If we end up with widespread totals of 1-3" Tuesday night- Wednesday morning, then area soils will be fairly saturated, leading to an increased risk for flooding from locally heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday.

Beyond Friday, the active pattern should continue, with scattered showers and storms remaining possible through the weekend. With regard to temperatures, expect slightly cooler than normal afternoons by late week, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s, while mornings will remain on the muggy side, as plenty of moisture pools over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Austin Camp Mabry 93 72 93 71 90 / 0 - 40 60 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 70 92 70 90 / 0 - 40 60 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 70 93 72 89 / - - 40 60 70 Burnet Muni Airport 90 71 90 69 87 / 0 - 40 50 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 72 93 71 94 / 20 20 50 60 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 71 92 70 90 / 0 - 40 50 70 Hondo Muni Airport 93 71 93 72 90 / - 10 40 60 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 70 93 70 90 / 0 - 40 60 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 73 92 72 89 / 0 20 40 60 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 73 93 73 89 / 0 10 40 60 70 Stinson Muni Airport 94 73 94 74 91 / 0 10 40 60 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Short-Term/Aviation . Treadway Long-Term . 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Antonio, Stinson Municipal Airport, TX7 mi51 minSSE 810.00 miFair83°F66°F57%1011.6 hPa
San Antonio, San Antonio International Airport, TX9 mi53 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F62°F51%1012.1 hPa
Randolph Air Force Base, TX10 mi48 minSSE 810.00 miFair80°F62°F55%1012.4 hPa
San Antonio - Kelly Field, TX10 mi47 minSSE 10 G 179.00 miFair83°F65°F54%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSSF

Wind History from SSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE7SE7SE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm--4E865NE5SE4SE6SE3SE5SE8
1 day agoSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6--SW73SE5S8SE11
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2 days agoSE7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm4E334NE5E7E7
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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