Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 4:04 AM   Moonset 4:49 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 051954 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 254 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS has been the main focus for ongoing afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This boundary has remained relatively stationary through the morning and early afternoon, generally intersecting the CWA in half from east to west.
Storm development began late morning and is expected to continue into the late afternoon before peak heating diminishes and the boundary layer stabilizes. Some storms have been severe with large hail the main threat, although damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado are still possible until storms end. Due to the slow moving nature of these, heavy rain has also been seen and a few flood advisories have been issued as some locations have received 1 to 2 inches of rain, up to 4 inches, in a short amount of time. Luckily where the heaviest rain had fallen storms have finally shifted slightly south and east out of that heaviest axis of precipitation.
As activity winds down this evening, low level moisture and light southeasterly flow will contribute to fog development tonight into Monday morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible, with HRRR probabilities bringing the lowest visibility over the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Low ceilings will once again develop as well which will keep temperatures warm across the area. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected.

Monday will be another humid and warm day for most of South Central Texas with highs from the mid 80s over the Hill Country where cloud cover will linger longest to highs in the upper 90s along the Rio Grande. A few additional light showers or an isolated non-severe storm are possible in the afternoon in the northeastern portions of the CWA, but the better forcing will be to the north so only have about a 20 percent PoP in at this time. Another warm night with areas of fog expected on Monday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be nearly zonal for the start of the long term. The low level flow will continue from the southeast.
Dry weather will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will climb to well above normal. Record highs are possible along the Rio Grande Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through South Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a slight chance for rain to the northeastern part of the CWA More significantly it will bring relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms have formed across South Central Texas, first impacting SAT/SSF for the start of the period with thunderstorms possible at AUS around 19-23Z. Ceilings will range from MVFR to VFR through the afternoon at all sites. Storm activity should diminish early this evening with low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected to return across the entire area tonight into Monday morning. Fog may also be possible with wet grounds and light wind, but ceilings my limit any dense fog formation. VFR conditions return Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 72 91 / 20 20 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 85 72 91 / 20 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 88 72 93 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 84 71 90 / 20 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 97 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 71 89 / 20 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 71 88 71 94 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 72 92 / 20 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 85 74 90 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 87 72 92 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 89 73 94 / 20 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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