Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Triumph, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 6:29 PM CST (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:15AMMoonset 9:45PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ538 Expires:202112081115;;077327 Fzus54 Klix 072258 Cwflix Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service New Orleans La 458 Pm Cst Tue Dec 7 2021 Pascagoula To Atchafalaya River Out To 60 Mile Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest Ten Percent Of The Waves. Gmz536-538-081115- Chandeleur Sound-breton Sound- 458 Pm Cst Tue Dec 7 2021
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cst Wednesday...
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog early in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Visibility 1 mile or less after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds near 10 knots becoming north in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Areas of fog early in the morning, then patchy fog late in the morning. Showers likely early in the morning, then chance of showers late in the morning. Visibility 1 mile or less early in the morning.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night.
Sunday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 458 Pm Cst Tue Dec 7 2021
Synopsis..A cold front has become stationary off the lower louisiana coast. The front will move north as a warm front Wednesday night as high pressure moves east. A stronger cold front is expected to move through the waters on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Triumph, LA
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location: 29.43, -89.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 072319 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 519 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021

AVIATION. (00z TAF Discussion)

IFR and LIFR conditions are expected to dominate all the stations until tomorrow morning. This is due from the residual moisture from the front passing through yesterday. -21/KWO

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 430 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday) .

A well defined shortwave trough in water vapor imagery will continue to move across the western to central Gulf Coast region through tonight with the surface frontal boundary expected to remain near the southeast Louisiana coastal areas. Spotty light rain/drizzle associated with this feature and overrunning moisture has finally broken out in the last couple hours from near Baton Rouge into south central Mississippi. Model soundings and the convective allowing models support increasing coverage of showers and some elevated thunderstorms by late evening or after midnight, and continuing into the morning hours on Wednesday before pushing offshore by afternoon. The elevated nature of the instability and weak lapse rates should keep the thunderstorms below severe limits. The other weather concern is fog, which is likely to be mixed in with the convection tonight into Wednesday morning, and some of the fog will be around already before sunset. This is a frontal fog as opposed to our more common radiation and advection fog, although the process of the cool air undercutting the warmer air above the surface is like advection fog with very low ceilings from stratus clouds dropping to the level where fog occurs. Some of the visibility guidance drops values to 1/4 mile or less in some spots by late tonight or early Wednesday morning, but have capped values in the forecast just above 1/4 mile and will not be issuing a Dense Fog Advisory, however that may be required later tonight.

Fast zonal flow in the mid to upper levels will persist Wednesday into Wednesday night. The frontal boundary will be mostly stationary during the daytime, but should move north as a warm front Wednesday night. It should remain dry into Wednesday night, but patchy fog may again develop. The mid/upper flow will turn more west- southwesterly on Thursday as heights fall in the western U.S. and northwest Mexico due to shortwaves moving in from the Pacific. Still don't have a lot of confidence on how much coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday, but the NBM appears a bit overdone given the lack of large scale forcing. Temperature will likely be tricky to pinexcuspoint for highs Wednesday with the frontal boundary still near the southeast Louisiana coast. Have gone a bit cooler than the NBM guidance, but not as cool as the NAM MET, although the latter might verify if the low stratus clouds hang in most of the day. There is somewhat higher confidence in the substantial warming on Thursday with highs soaring back to the mid 70s to near 80.

A substantial shortwave trough will amplify and phase in northern and southern streams as the energy crosses the western states and Rockies Friday and the Plains states Friday night. LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday) .

The mid/upper level shortwave trough axis will sharpen on Saturday as it continues to move east-southeast across the Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and maintain a slightly positive tilt. There should likely be enough deep layer shear, dynamics and instability for some severe thunderstorm potential Saturday, and am expecting the assigned risk to eventually be in the marginal to slight risk range. The highest rain chances are on Saturday, then a strong cold front is then expected to sweep through and dry things out by Saturday night and continue through the early part of the week. Unseasonably warm temperatures with near record or record highs are likely on Friday, then cooler/colder temperatures will move by Saturday night into Sunday into Monday. No substantial cold air that would bring freezing temperatures is anticipated at this time, and a substantial warmup will begin on Tuesday as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds over the central Gulf Coast region.

AVIATION .

Lowering conditions will continue going through the evening into early Wednesday morning with conditions expected to become LIFR at all airports with many likely to drop to near or below airport minimums. The complicating factor is increasing rain and a few TSRA is expected later this evening or overnight into Wednesday morning. Slow improvement of conditions is expected during late morning hours.

MARINE .

The stationary front will remain near the southeast Louisiana coast and adjacent waters tonight into most of Wednesday. The front should then return north as a warm front by late Wednesday or Wednesday night with onshore flow then expected to persist through the latter portion of the week. Additionally, southerly fetch increases as surface southerly winds build with increasing wave heights before the next cold front swings through sometime by late Saturday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are then likely behind the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 50 64 52 75 / 50 20 0 40 BTR 54 67 55 78 / 50 30 0 40 ASD 55 68 54 78 / 40 50 0 40 MSY 60 71 60 78 / 50 50 0 40 GPT 56 67 55 74 / 50 50 0 40 PQL 56 67 53 75 / 50 60 0 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PILL1 20 mi102 min SSE 4.1G5.1 71°F 59°F1014.9 hPa
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 30 mi102 min 1.9G5.1 70°F1015.2 hPa
42084 32 mi90 min 70°F 71°F1 ft
KMIS 33 mi35 min 0 72°F 70°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 33 mi150 min E 8.9G9.9 66°F 69°F1015.5 hPa
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 34 mi126 min 74°F 62°F1013 hPa
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 36 mi90 min 8G8

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBVE

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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This dayNW8NW8NW6
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1 day agoS12SW12SW12S11S10S9S12S10S10S8S9S9S10S10S9S9SW10SW13N11
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2 days agoNE7NE6NE5E4NE5E3000SE300N30SE3SE4S7S6S9S8S10S11S11S12

Tide / Current Tables for Jack Bay, Louisiana
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Jack Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM CST     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:14 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:14 PM CST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:44 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Jack Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
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1.6
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1.6
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1.5
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1.4
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1.1
5
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0.8
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0.5
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0.2
8
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-0.1
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-0.3
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-0.5
11
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-0.6
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-0.6
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-0
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1.2
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1.3


Tide / Current Tables for Empire Jetty, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Empire Jetty
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM CST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:15 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:46 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:08 PM CST     1.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Empire Jetty, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
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1.4
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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