Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:06 AM   Moonset 10:08 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 290547 AAA AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Convection continues across south central Texas with a cluster of storms ongoing across Williamson county and severe storms in the coastal plains. Breaks in the cloud cover should bring about destabilization of the atmosphere through this afternoon, especially east of I-35/I-37 as this area has largely not seen much convection yet. Healthy southeast winds in the lower levels and 0-6km shear near 50kts will be enough to get storms rotating. SPC has issued Tornado Watch #158 until 9 PM for our counties east of the I-35/I-37 corridors.

With the loss of daytime heating, we should see a decrease in the coverage of convection and we will remove rain chances after Midnight. Patchy fog development is expected, especially from the Hill Country eastward given recent rains.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Subtropical Jet will remain active through the long term forecast period, with daily rain and storm chances in the works for South Central Texas. Periods of rain and storms, some possibly producing beneficial to locally heavy rainfall appear possible through next weekend.

On Tuesday afternoon, PWATs will steadily climb from 1-1.25" in the morning to the 1.5"-1.75" range and they aren't expected to drop below that range through the remainder of the long term period. As southwest flow aloft continues, it will send a series of shortwave disturbances through South Central Texas. There will be several notable periods for better storm chances over the region, most notably Wednesday evening and again Friday night as global models want to send a cold front through the region from north to south.
Guidance has been back and forth on whether or not this frontal boundary will even move into the region, so take the forecast for cooler temperatures with a grain of salt as confidence at this distance is still quite low. Ensembles have backed off the idea of a front moving through the CWA at all, so the forecast is increasingly uncertain from Friday morning onward.

WPC has highlighted the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor north of San Antonio, and the Coastal Plains in a Thursday and Friday level 1 of 4 (Marginal Risk) for excessive rainfall. The overall pattern supports this threat, but where exactly any heavier storms set up is tough to pinpoint at this time. For the time being, expect some warm, muggy mornings in the lower 70s, along with afternoons in the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday-Thursday before slightly cooler air arrives Friday and Saturday with the potential front getting picked up in the NBM guidance.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

MVFR to IFR cigs are forecast through to the early part of the overnight period along the I-35 sites. Then, areas of dense fog are forecast to develop for the second part of the overnight period into Monday morning with LIFR vbsys expected for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF. Fog begins to lift at or around 14Z with MVFR cigs mid to late morning followed by VFR conditions for Monday afternoon and evening.
Light to variable winds are expected overnight into Monday morning with a southeast wind flow around 5 to 10 knots during Monday afternoon. For KDRT, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period with light northeasterly winds overnight into Monday morning and then shifting to the southeast mid to late morning and continuing into the afternoon with wind speeds around the 7 to 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 89 69 87 71 / 0 0 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 86 70 / 0 0 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 68 88 71 / 0 0 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 66 86 70 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 73 96 75 / 0 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 65 86 69 / 0 0 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 68 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 66 87 69 / 10 0 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 69 85 72 / 10 0 40 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 69 87 71 / 0 0 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 90 70 88 73 / 0 0 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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