Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 12:27 AM   Moonset 10:43 AM

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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 305 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots late. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. A slight chance of showers late. Tuesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 305 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis - Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will increase through the middle of the week as the surface trough and deep layer upper level trough approaches the area. Onshore flow expected for the the period.

FXUS64 KLCH 300500 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Calm or very light winds being observed across the region this evening. Mostly clear skies and saturated soils from early morning rains will favor fog development overnight. Some areas are already showing visibilities around 5 miles. Fog is expected to dissipate by 14Z giving way to gradually clearing skies. As was mentioned previously, a stray shower can't be completely ruled out Tuesday afternoon as higher low and mid level moisture advects back into the region, but probabilities remain very low.
The only changes to the inherited forecast this evening were minor massages to dewpoints and fog coverage.

Jones

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Convection is gradually exiting the area to the east with light to moderate rain lingering south and east of New Iberia and over the gulf waters. Some spotty flooding is also continuing across interior SE TX and West LA from previous rain.

The upper disturbance responsible for this morning;s convection will continue east and away. This will give the region a period of quiet weather with light winds that is expected to last through tonight. Low lvl moisture from today's rain may combine with the light winds and clear skies to allow fog to develop around sunrise

Tomorrow the flow will again turn SE with surface moisture being pulled back north. While not mentioned in the forecast, an isolated shower may be possible by afternoon in SE TX and western LA as the moisture gets pulled back toward the plains.

Showers and storms may be possible locally again by Wednesday.
Another system will move into the plains and gradually move closer for the extended portion of the forecast. Ahead of this disturbance, ample moisture will be in place and with afternoon heating, scattered convection will be possible.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The beginning of the long term will be active as a weak frontal boundary is pushed into the plains before stalling out along the northern fringe of the CWA Thanks to the rainfall received today (Monday), flooding will be possible with additional rainfall amounts expected on Thursday and Friday. As a result, WPC has place us in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

As this will be May, the front is not going (nor expected) to bring down significantly cooler or drier air. Temperatures will be held to the low 80s thanks to cloud cover and rain Thursday and Friday while daytime temps will rise into the mid to upper 80s for the rest of the period. Overnight temps will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s with near matching dewpoints.

Stigger/87

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Little change from previous TAF thinking with clear skies and light winds now noted areawide. Patchy fog is already seen in area obs although terminal sites remain VFR attm. Still expect areas of BR/FG and possibly some low clouds to develop overnight. Vsby reductions to MVFR are anticipated over the next 2-3 hours, with occasional LIFR vsbys/cigs possible late tonight, mainly at the LA terminals. Conditions should improve to VFR by 15Z at the LA airports with cigs lifting/scattering by 17Z at BPT. VFR/light southerly winds expected to prevail thereafter.

24

MARINE
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Winds continue to decrease with storms exiting the area. The light and VRB flow will turn back southeast then increase into the 10 to 20kt range by Wednesday. An SCA may be needed by Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly more with winds in the gulf waters increasing above 20kts briefly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 30 LCH 66 85 68 83 / 0 10 10 40 LFT 67 87 70 87 / 10 10 0 30 BPT 67 85 70 84 / 0 10 10 30

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Tue -- 01:27 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:26 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:55 PM CDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
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Tue -- 01:28 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:11 AM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:03 PM CDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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