Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 2:40 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 300 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Sunday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog in the morning. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thursday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thursday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.

GMZ400 300 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms 40 to 60 nautical miles south of atchafalaya bay will continue to diminish this evening. Light onshore flow and low seas expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas expected to increase Tuesday through Thursday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high to the east and low pressure across the plains.

FXUS64 KLCH 190003 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 703 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge over the region, with light and variable to calm winds noted across the area. An exiting mid to upper level trough to our east has ended all the precipitation areawide, except for a sliver of the far coastal waters where scattered thunderstorms continue. This will gradually clear out this evening. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s areawide, with temperatures near 90 over Southeast Texas still possible this afternoon.

For tonight, clear skies expected with nearly calm winds. This coupled with the moist ground from the recent rainfall, areas of fog quite likely, with the possibility being dense towards daybreak.
The highest likelihood of this occurring will be across Southeast Texas and Western Louisiana along and north of I-10. Short term guidance still in question on areal extent of this and duration.
Due to this, holding off on a Dense Fog Advisory at this time until trends and guidance becomes more consistent.

For Sunday through Monday night, a dry northwest flow aloft expected between the exiting mid to upper level trough to the east and a building mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico.
Not expecting any precipitation, but a gradual increase in temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the increased dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, maximum heat index values in the mid 90s expected each afternoon. The calendar may say spring, but summer has arrived.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)

The start of the long range continues with relatively dry weather locally across SETX and SWLA as broad high-pressure ridging extends over Appalachia down SW across the northern Gulf of Mexico. That pattern will facilitate warm temperatures with mostly sunny skies trending into Wednesday. Meanwhile an upstream shortwave remains relatively broad with no signals of amplification to generate significant forcing down to the Gulf Coast as the associated sfc low lifts from the Midwest into the northern Great Lakes region by Wednesday night. Naturally, a the cold front becomes stationary and settles north of the ARKLATEX region by Thursday. Given the southerly wind regime, very isolated pop-up like shower / storms are not out of the question to the south of the boundary, however, they will be limited by low level subsidence / inversion layer from the ridging, now over the SECONUS and western Atlantic. Friday, the boundary lifts across the TN Valley with continued dry weather favored over SETX and SWLA amid daytime temperatures climbing into the low 90’s for many inland locations. Various forecast signals indicate this relatively drier pattern, compared to the last couple weeks, may continue into the following weekend which is congruent with the latest CPC 6-10 day climatological guidance.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Afternoon CU field continues to diminish late this afternoon amid light and variable winds. Winds will remain light to near calm overnight with clear or mostly clear skies expected, and this will favor the potential for fog overnight. HRRR probs suggest at least a 50% probability of vsbys down to one half mile at LCH/BPT, and around 30-40% at the Acadiana terminals, with probs much lower at AEX. Left inherited TEMPO groups for 1/2SM FG at LCH/BPT, with IFR at LFT/ARA and MVFR at AEX. Conditions should improve to VFR through 13-14Z, with FEW/SCT CU developing during the day and light winds to prevail.

24

MARINE

Scattered showers and thunderstorms 40 to 60 nautical miles south of Atchafalaya Bay will continue to diminish this evening. Light onshore flow and low seas expected through Monday with no precipitation.
Winds and seas expected to increase Tuesday through Thursday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high to the east and low pressure across the Plains.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 71 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 71 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 72 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Sat -- 02:54 AM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM CDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:31 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:41 PM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:02 AM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM CDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:26 PM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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