Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Houston, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:11PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 11:57 AM CDT (16:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 1:06PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1036 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Rest of today..South winds around 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the late morning and early afternoon, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming smooth to slightly choppy in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1036 Am Cdt Tue Sep 28 2021
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light to moderate onshore winds will continue throughout the week. Winds will hover near caution criteria for a few hours at a time throughout the week, and caution flags might be required as early as tonight for some of our coastal waters. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are expected throughout the week and into the weekend, so expect brief stronger wind gusts and locally higher seas near the strongest activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Houston, TX
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location: 29.74, -95.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 281153 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 653 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance].

Challenging forecast on multiple fronts today. Period opens with sporadic IFR CIG/VSBY at most sites, plus showers with isolated lightning in the vicinity of SGR, HOU, LBX, and GLS. Expected scattered to numerous showers/storms to spread inland this afternoon, coming to an end in the early evening. Only a brief break anticipated, with an upper disturbance bringing a new round of showers and storms to the area.

Activity through the day will have a strong influence on the next round of convection, and it is difficult to get too into specifics for timing and impacts to individual terminals. Have tried to sketch out windows with best chance for impact, for future shifts to refine.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 349 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021/.

DISCUSSION.

Expect a pretty active stretch of weather ahead right on through to the weekend as an upper low spins more or less in place over the southwestern US. Look for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the week - so while we're certainly not looking for continuous rain through the week, and indeed, any given point may not see rain every single day, that point will at least have a decent shot each day until a pattern change arrives.

For the most part, the environment appears unlikely to support any organized severe weather or widespread excessive rain. However, we'll have enough instability and moisture in place that - as we see so often in Southeast Texas - a storm dropping high rates of rain over the wrong spot could create brief spots of localized, minor flooding.

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night].

Showers in these overnight/early morning hours are 30-plus miles offshore . for now. Based on GOES TPW imagery, it appears the radar only begins to light up once precipitable water reaches two inches. This deeper moisture is slowly making its way to the Southeast Texas Coast; additionally, some warmer temperatures aloft should begin to cool, weakening any remaining capping and nudging up instability.

In other words, even though convection is currently well offshore, we should expect that to change over the next several hours, with potential showers and storms at the coast closer to dawn, with coverage spreading inland and a general uptick in intensity through the afternoon. That said, deep layer shear is pretty low, which will temper the high end of today's activity some. With ample instability emerging and high moisture levels, the strongest storms will be capable of dropping a quick inch or two, with the best potential for this probably around the Galveston Bay area. If this falls over a vulnerable spot, we could see localized urban/poor drainage spots with minor flooding . pretty much par for the course in Southeast Texas.

We'll likely see activity chill out in the evening after the sun goes down, but the break will be a short one. The next thing to pay attention to will be a vort max associated with a shortwave trough making its way out of Central Texas and across Southeast Texas late tonight through Wednesday. This will certainly fuel some amount of convection. I've got very high confidence that it will rain somewhere in the area and some point while the vort max aloft rolls through The problem is. so much of the detail in this round will depend on mesoscale details determined by what happens today - boundaries, how much the atmosphere gets worked over, all that fun stuff that makes getting into specifics very tough, even 24-48 hours out.

Even better, some of the CAM guidance suggests that we'll get some early convection to fire, shoot west and collide with storms moving east with the shortwave, then diving south towards Corpus. This gives us storms in the southwest near Matagorda Bay, but surprisingly little rain elsewhere in the forecast area. This idea was emergent enough in the 00Z CAM runs that the HREF probability matched 3-hr mean QPF is pushed to this solution.

It is perhaps unsurprising that, given the uncertainty involved, I have spread out the PoP pattern areally, perhaps artificially boosting things far inland northwest and north of the Houston metro Still. I don't know that I'm totally convinced by this aggressive right turn in the heaviest storms such that most of the area gets missed. If things play out just how some of this CAM guidance rolls, with strong, westward-moving convection blocking things off, this outcome is probable. But if this "blocking" convection isn't strong enough, or even fails to materialize at all, the shortwave should easily support showers and storms over more than just our southwest.

On top of that, with an upper low spinning over the four corners, it's only a matter of time until the next little vort max rolls across Wednesday night. This doesn't appear to be quite as substantial as the shortwave trough mentioned in the previous paragraph, but it should be enough to drag PoPs right on through the night.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday].

The wet stretch of weather shows no signs of stopping through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The synoptic pattern over SE TX will continue to be dominated by a vigorous upper level trough positioned roughly over the Four Corners region, with a robust associated jet streak positioned to its south. As broad surface high pressure remains in place over the Southeastern CONUS and pressures deepen over Western/Central TX as a developing lee cyclone pushes into the OK Panhandle region, the resultant onshore wind pattern will keep moisture abundant. Global models indicate PW values hovering around 2.0 in by Thursday, with little change to these numbers anticipated through Sunday afternoon.

As the upper trough axis pushes slowly to the east/northeast and several embedded disturbances push through the Southern Plains, the combination of ample moisture, favorable upper-level divergence, and SBCAPE values on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms developing each day with activity peaking during the afternoon hours. Have generally maintained PoPs of 60-80% through Saturday. Total rainfall amounts of 2-3" are currently expected across SE TX through the end of the weekend, though locally higher totals are certainly possible with any stronger developing storms.

A pattern shift arrives on Sunday as the upper trough axis pushes further eastward while the progression of a weak surface low over the Northern Plains drags a cold front into Central/Southern TX. While the latest GFS solution remains more progressive in its depiction of the frontal passage through SE TX on Sunday night, precipitation chances will nonetheless diminish with the loss of upper-level support and drop off in total PWs to around 1.5 in. Heading into the early part of next week, have kept PoPs in the slight chance range with scattered/isolated diurnal activity remaining a possibility.

MARINE.

Winds continue to hover around advisory criteria this morning, though have opted not to include advisory flags in the current forecast package as seas remain generally light. A wet pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of the week and into the early part of the weekend as moderate onshore flow allows for a steady stream of Gulf moisture to move into the area. Meanwhile, with the onshore wind pattern remaining persistent, seas should increase to around 3 to 5 knots by Friday. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop each day with wind speeds remaining near 15 knots. Any stronger developing storms may produce stronger wind gusts at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 93 73 87 71 87 / 40 60 60 40 60 Houston (IAH) 87 74 84 73 86 / 70 70 60 50 80 Galveston (GLS) 86 78 84 77 84 / 70 70 60 60 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.



DISCUSSION . Luchs SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . Cady AVIATION . Luchs MARINE . Cady


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 4 mi58 min WNW 2.9 G 8 80°F 81°F1012.7 hPa (+0.3)
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 28 mi58 min SW 7 G 8 80°F 80°F1012.7 hPa (+0.3)
GRRT2 38 mi58 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 81°F1012.9 hPa (+0.5)
GTOT2 41 mi58 min SSW 2.9 G 6 82°F 81°F1013.2 hPa (+0.5)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 42 mi58 min WSW 8.9 G 11 81°F 81°F1012.4 hPa (+0.4)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 46 mi58 min WSW 5.1 G 6 81°F 81°F1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
LUIT2 47 mi58 min S 8 G 11 82°F 81°F1012.8 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Dunn Helistop, TX4 mi63 minSSE 510.00 miThunderstorm79°F72°F79%1013.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX7 mi65 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F75°F67%1013.4 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi68 minSSW 610.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity86°F77°F75%1012.9 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi65 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F77°F80%1013.4 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX16 mi65 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F75°F74%1013.2 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX18 mi63 minSSW 53.00 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain83°F80°F90%1013.5 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX19 mi65 minSW 710.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity86°F76°F72%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCJ

Wind History from MCJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE54CalmSE54SE1310SE10
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45CalmSW5CalmCalmS5
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S6S7S7CalmCalmCalmN6N3N4Calm8

Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
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Tue -- 07:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM CDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:53 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.80.91.11.11.21.21.21.21.21.21.11.1110.80.70.50.40.30.20.20.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 07:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:22 AM CDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 10:53 PM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.60.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.1

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