Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Gauche, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:22PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:05 PM CDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 8:48AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 343 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 23 2021
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers early in the evening.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 343 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis..A weak area of low pressure and cold front will pass through the waters on Sunday and Monday. High pressure will briefly settle in for Monday night and Tuesday, but a very strong low pressure system and front will impact the area Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Gauche, LA
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location: 29.78, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 232037 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 337 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night). A fast moving shortwave trough and a related jet streak will pass through the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day tomorrow. As this feature moves toward the region, an influx of deeper mid-level moisture will begin to feed into the coastal waters tonight and then into the southern portions of the CWA below I-10 by tomorrow morning. This deeper pool of moisture will allow for slightly steeper lapse rates and increased instability across the southern half of the CWA. This instability and the increase in forcing aloft will interact with a weak boundary lingering along the coast to produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor during the day tomorrow.

As the upper level vort max and jet streak moves further east tomorrow evening, the highest convective risk will shift toward eastern coastal waters and remain over these waters through the overnight hours. By Monday, this initial feature will no longer be impacting the region, but the trailing end of a northern stream trough axis and weak front pushing through the Midwestern states could spark off another round of isolated shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours. The best chance of convective development is expected over the eastern half of the CWA, generally east of I-55, where slightly more moisture and slightly stronger low level convergence along the weak front should be in place. Temperatures will be quite warm on Monday as increased compressional heating in advance of the front and trough axis occurs. Highs could climb into the lower 90s in many areas, and several record highs may be broken Monday afternoon. Any lingering convection will quickly dissipate in the evening hours due to a combination of increasing negative vorticity advection and decreasing instability.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday). A fairly deep and strong ridge axis will be in control of the forecast area on Tuesday with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions forecast throughout the day. Strong subsidence in the mid and upper levels will keep temperatures on the warmer side, and highs should climb into the upper 80s across much of the area.

This deep layer ridge axis will quickly shift to the east Tuesday night as a strong longwave trough deepens over the Southern Plains. Onshore flow will increase through the night, and a surge of deep tropical moisture will advect into the area. This is most evident when looking at forecast precipitable water values which are expected to climb from around 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon to over 2 inches by Wednesday morning. Additionally, increasingly difluent flow in the upper levels will produce sufficient forcing to spark off some isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity by late Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be the main day of concern as the longwave trough axis and an associated strong surface low and cold front sweep through the Gulf South. There are still some differences between the models concerning the exact timing and of when the trough will begin to eject out of the Southern Plains, but the models all indicate that the trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves through the region. As the trough becomes negatively tilted either Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening in response to a 100+ knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough, the cold front will race to the east and a line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms can be expected as this front pushes through Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. The severe potential will be highly dependent on several factors which will become better defined over the coming days. This includes the orientation and position of the low level jet, how Pacific based moisture influences lapse rates and instability values, and the exact timing of the frontal passage. The evolution of this severe threat will continue to monitored over the next couple of days, and confidence on the primary convective mode will be narrowed down. In any event, the strong forcing and ample moisture in place, support categorical POP for Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Model differences become more substantial on Thursday and Friday with the GFS indicating a dry and stable airmass dominating the forecast area, and the ECMWF indicating a more unsettled period of weather. The reason for these differences if wholly dependent on how far south an upper level low digs into the Southeast. The GFS has the upper low transiting across the Tennessee Valley which keeps the forecast area embedded within a deep layer northwest flow regime. If this pattern verifies and dry and stable airmass with stronger cold air advection will take hold of the area. The ECMWF has a much deeper trough initially, and this results in the closed upper level low forming over north Texas and then pushing east along the I-20 corridor. This more southern solution results a colder 500mb airmass moving through the area which in turn will steepen mid-level lapse rates and encourage the development of clouds and showers through the end of the workweek. Given the substantial differences between the models, have opted to stick with the NBM which shows a risk of scattered showers each day and moderately cooler temperatures.

AVIATION. Prevailing VFR conditions will largely be the rule through tomorrow afternoon. At KMCB and KHUM, a brief window for some light MVFR fog development may occur around daybreak, but this will be highly conditioned on the strength of the boundary layer flow and how much cooling can occur tonight.

MARINE. A brief period of increased gradient flow over the Gulf waters will push winds into the 15 to 20 knot range tonight through tomorrow night. This increased wind field will be the result of a weak low pressure system passing through. After the low pulls east, a weak front will slip through the waters tomorrow. High pressure will build in behind the front, and offshore winds could increase to 10 to 15 knots from 5 to 10 knots for Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, a much stronger low pressure system and cold front will impact the waters. Small craft advisory and potentially gale conditions could affect portions of the coastal during this period of time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 65 86 68 88 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 69 87 70 90 / 10 30 10 10 ASD 67 86 68 88 / 0 10 10 20 MSY 72 86 73 88 / 0 30 20 20 GPT 68 83 71 85 / 0 10 20 20 PQL 62 84 69 86 / 0 10 20 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.

PG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 1 mi48 min 82°F 78°F1015.4 hPa
CARL1 18 mi48 min 77°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 24 mi48 min ESE 1.9G6 84°F 77°F1014.6 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 40 mi48 min ESE 12G15 79°F 81°F1015.9 hPa
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 43 mi48 min 5.1G8 83°F 80°F1015.5 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 44 mi48 min SE 4.1G8 80°F 76°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for West Bank 1, Bayou Gauche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA16 mi73 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F68°F59%1015.6 hPa
Houma-Terrebonne Airport, LA19 mi79 minSSE 67.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F70°F66%1015.2 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA21 mi71 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F69°F63%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSY

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Last 24hr3NE4SE5S4S50000000NE3NE3E4SE4E6E7E7SE9SE9SE8S8S7
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2 days agoS9SE11SE8SE7SE5SE5SE4E4SE7SE5SE5SE5SE300000NW3NW5NW7N6N8N6

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:25 AM CDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:05 PM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:21 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:04 AM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:20 PM CDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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