Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 4:14 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 257 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late this morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 257 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through next week. A potential frontal passage may impact the waters later in the week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KLIX 050832 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 332 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak ridging remains over the area today and tomorrow, providing warm temperatures to continue to build over the area. The subsequent downstream surface high pressure over the Atlantic will keep providing warm and moist air advection into the area. The pumping in of warm and moist air at the surface will create adequate instability (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE) across the area ahead of a decaying storm complex from Texas. With the instability in place and the forcing from a potential outflow boundary from the storm complex, the western and northwestern portions of the area could see scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary. Those cells will be competing with the subsidence of the ridge, so that is mainly why the coverage should be scattered in nature. Needless to say, the CAPE and lack of wind shear with the suppression from the ridge supports maybe a strong storm or two, with a marginally severe storm possible in the early afternoon as the outflow from the complex passes through.

Monday looks to similar to Sunday. Slight ridging is still expected to be over the area with continued onshore flow. The only discernible difference is that we will not have a decaying storm complex coming our way. So, although we will have adequate instability again (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE), a lack of a trigger like an outflow boundary and the suppression from the ridge will keep rain coverage very isolated to scattered at most.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Much of the long term will be dominated by ridging over the northeast gulf. This will keep us mainly dry and and very warm over the next week. We will continue to get warmer and more humid over the week, with potential heat indices getting over 100 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be near or over 10 degrees warmer than average next Tuesday through Thursday. That first stretch of "summer-like" heat catches people offguard since we have not been acclimated to it yet, so make sure you're not caught off guard by the first shot of summer heat.

There is some indications that a cold front will make its way down here towards the end of the week on Friday. With it being 5+ days out, there is some uncertainty around this occurring. We are starting to get into that time of year where fronts stall out before making it this far south, so do not be surprised if that one does not make it down here. If it does, expects showers and thunderstorms along it with the very warm and moist air ahead of it and a slight cool down for the weekend into the upper 70s and low 80s.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The only ongoing flight restrictions are MVFR to IFR visibilities at KMCB, where evening rainfall occurred. Those conditions could deteriorate further toward sunrise, with LIFR or VLIFR conditions at least possible, although probabilities aren't particularly high. At remaining terminals, anticipate MVFR to potentially IFR conditions to redevelop around 10z, with conditions improving somewhat between 14-15z.

The forecast scenario for the daytime hours Sunday is going to look a lot like Saturday. Another shortwave is expected to slide overtop the ridging over the Gulf. That will probably produce scattered SHRA/TSRA again, potentially as early as 15z near KBTR.
Probabilities are high enough to mention again at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC.
While the threat isn't zero at remaining terminals, it is too low to mention in the body of the forecast. Similar to the last couple days, as well, convection should dissipate prior to sunset Sunday.
VFR conditions are anticipated during the evening hours Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The entire forecast period will be dominated by ridging and onshore flow. This will lead to fairly benign marine conditions for today and the upcoming week. There are indications of a potential frontal passage at the end of the week on Friday, but due to how far out it is and the time of year, there is a bit of uncertainty at this time for that.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 84 66 85 69 / 60 20 40 0 BTR 87 71 88 73 / 60 20 30 0 ASD 87 71 88 72 / 30 10 20 0 MSY 87 73 87 75 / 30 10 20 0 GPT 86 72 84 73 / 20 10 20 0 PQL 88 70 86 71 / 10 10 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Sun -- 04:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 02:10 PM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Sun -- 04:28 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:23 PM CDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:44 PM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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