Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 3:41 PM

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FXUS64 KEWX 041730 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

East to southeasterly winds at the surface are in place across south central Texas early this morning according to the latest observations.
In addition, radar VWP plots show a fairly deep fetch of southerly winds from just above the surface to around 10k MSL. Radar data also shows some light showers across the coastal plains and out west along the Rio Grande. Elsewhere, surface obs show a stout cold front across the Texas Panhandle.

Precipitation chances this morning will be low and in the form of either light drizzle or light rain showers. Clouds will remain thick with plenty of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. We also expect to see patchy fog continue across most areas this morning. For the afternoon hours, rain chances across south central Texas remain fairly low, with models showing convection most favored across west Texas as the above mentioned front drops southward. We will keep a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as some of the hi-res members show some development during the peak heating hours. Low clouds have been slow to dissipate over the last several days and this may put a damper on afternoon heating and destabilization of the lower levels. Some breaks in the clouds should occur farther west along the Rio Grande and into the southern Edwards Plateau region, and we have shown some slightly higher rain chances across these mentioned areas for this afternoon. Daytime highs will be tricky again with the expected cloud cover. We have gone with lower 90s along the Rio Grande with 80s elsewhere.

The weather pattern should turn active as the evening progresses for areas generally west of the I-35 corridor. First up will be convection that develops over the higher terrain of Mexico that may move into the Rio Grande plains during the late afternoon or evening hours. In addition, convection moving out of west Texas should congeal into a cluster with the leading edge moving into the Hill country and southern Edwards Plateau during the late evening hours to around Midnight. During the early morning hours on Sunday, models suggest this cluster of storms will move east or southeast into the I-35 corridor. There will be a concern for severe storms this evening and overnight with large to possibly very large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. In addition, a tornado can't be ruled out. As of now, it appears the lower Trans Pecos region into the southern Edwards Plateau, including northern Val Verde county will be under the higher chances for severe weather, with SPC showing an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) in the latest Day 1 outlook.
It would not take much expansion for this higher risk area to move into portions of the western Hill Country. For the early morning hours on Sunday, the severe threat will shift east and southeast into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor and areas generally along and north of an Eagle Pass to San Antonio to Taylor line will be in the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) category for severe storms. For areas mainly east of the I-35 corridor, there will be a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The models show good potential for some locally heavy rainfall as well, especially across the southern Edwards Plateau into portions of the Hill Country where some of the hi-res models show more rounds of precipitation persisting well into Sunday morning along the southward dropping leading edge of the cold front or convective outflow boundary. Precipitation chances for Sunday afternoon will largely depend on how convection unfolds during the morning hours. For now, we will show a decent chance of precipitation during the afternoon hours across most locations. Given the expected precipitation and cloud cover, highs on Sunday will trend downward, with upper 70s to upper 80s in the forecast.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain chances trend downward Sunday night into early Monday as a more stable zonal pattern aloft builds into TX. PWat values will remain elevated for a few showers, perhaps an isolated storm to form during the day Monday. Models show a thermal ridge encroaching into our western counties by midweek, but have trended slightly cooler and less dry over the past several runs. Even so, the mixing of dry air into western counties could bring some triple digit heat while bringing up the heat index to near triple digits over central counties. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days of the week, but Friday morning cold front has trended earlier to a late Thursday arrival, which could lead toward further moderation of the mat temp on that day. No significant rain chances are depicted along the front, but some overrunning rain chances are suggested for Friday. If this occurs, the max temps for Friday will be trending down as well.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR to local IFR cloud cover continues to linger over much of South Central Texas. Expect ceilings to lift to VFR by 20-21Z everywhere except over the Hill Country where MVFR conditions look to remain.
Low ceilings will redevelop around 03-04Z tonight, dropping as low as IFR to LIFR early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, moving across much of the area through Sunday morning. Believe any activity early this evening will stay west of DRT, and have introduced PROB30 groups to sites for the best timing as a complex or line or storms moves across the area later in the night. Showers and thunderstorms may linger behind this initial line of storms through the day Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 70 82 71 86 / 80 60 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 81 70 86 / 80 60 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 84 71 88 / 70 60 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 67 79 70 84 / 90 60 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 87 74 95 / 60 50 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 80 69 84 / 80 60 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 69 83 70 87 / 80 50 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 82 70 86 / 70 60 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 82 72 86 / 60 60 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 82 72 86 / 70 50 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 72 84 73 88 / 60 50 20 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Burnet-Lee-Llano-Williamson.

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