Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:29PM Saturday October 16, 2021 3:31 AM CDT (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 3:10AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 939 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am cdt Saturday through Saturday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight, then becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds near 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 939 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis..A cold front will pass through the waters tonight. Gusty northerly winds behind the front Saturday will gradually weaken late in the weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds in from the north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 160504 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

AVIATION. (06Z TAF Discussion)

Conditions are expected to start at VFR until the front reaches the stations. The front is expected to hit each station between 06Z and 09Z, with CIG's dropping to MVFR over the station. Once frontal passage occurs conditions will improve to VFR, however winds will increase and gust, with wind shear conditions expected at KBTR and KMCB. -KO

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 952 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

EVENING UPDATE .

Pop values have been decreased based on upper air, upstream Metar, Radar, Satellite, and Skew-T analysis. Thunderstorms have been removed due to the fact that the system's thermo profile and upper level support has moved ahead of the cold front. Upstream Metar are showing that LCH is one of the few upstream sites that is showing any precip and that has been a temporary condition. Satellite and Radar have shown that the line has become broken and the broken portion is inbound for the CWA. Finally Skew-T indices are showing decreased lapse rates, strong mid level inversion, and a increased CIN. Overall the trends are more towards a stratus deck and rain showers.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

AVIATION . (00Z Discussion)

Conditions are expected to start at VFR until the front reaches the stations. The front is expected to hit each station between 04Z and 07Z, with CIG's dropping to MVFR and VCSH/VCTS around the station. Once frontal passage occurs conditions will improve to VFR, however winds will increase and gust, with wind shear conditions expected at KBTR and KMCB. -KO

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 337 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday Night) .

Starting off with this afternoon/evening, main focus is on developing Cu/spotty showers across the Atchafalaya Basin. Quick mesoanalysis earlier this morning indicated zone of moist convergence primarily from the surface to low-levels along a meridional oriented axis from near Morgan City, north to around BTR. Investigating the environmental set up, we warmed up into the upper 80's quickly this afternoon which led to a well-mixed PBL with patchy cumulus and an overall warm, but pleasant day. The same subsidence inversion responsible for keeping us dry for the past several days has finally lifted and weakened due to deep- moist ascent in place over the region, but the residual airmass aloft remains still warm and dry, owing to a very warm thermal profile aloft (H7 to H5 Lapse Rates ranging 5 to 5.5C/km and H5 temps in the -5C range). So regardless of ample surface warming, we only revealed very little "thin" cape aloft in an environment lacking large-scale lift. Meaning, we need some "trigger" to get showers/storms going, and that is where this moist convergence axis comes into play. Interesting to note such impressive consistency in the HRRR late this morning/early afternoon with each run very confident over the idea of scattered showers/storms igniting along this axis and spreading east through this evening. Recent GOES-16 Cloud Phase Distinction RGB illustrates growing cumulonimbus in this region, and given such overall support, will ride with this forecast. Not anticipating any strong or severe storms due to such an unimpressive environmental profile, but still enough to deliver a quick burst of heavy rain for some across southeastern LA, primarily from Baton Rouge to Slidell including New Orleans. This activity will come to an end later this evening as this axis weakens revealing prevailing southwesterly surface winds.

Then focus shifts to a cold front racing our way from the west and northwest later tonight. We will see showers/storms ignite along the front later this afternoon along coastal SE Texas northeast into northern LA and MS, which will drift east with time reaching our NW CWA areas around 10PM to 12AM. As mentioned before, with the lack of large-scale forcing, the only lift will be along the front itself as it races east overnight. Even after decoupling, we still will have just a slither of enough elevated instability lingering to produce a few rumbles of thunder along a thin, broken line of showers. Kept what was done in the morning update by removing thunder for far northeastern parts of the CWA from around Walthall Co, MS to Pearl River and Pascagoula, as instability really lessens going into the overnight hours, as does the line itself weakening and slowly dissipating as the front swings through coastal waters. It is very possible a few folks, especially south of I-10/12 in a region of less overall frontogenetic forcing will not see any rain, but for many, a quick tenth to quarter inch will come for many out of this passing line.

The front roars through early Saturday with gusty northerly winds to follow. It is looking pretty breezy for everyone during the day on Saturday with clearing skies behind the front. Some of the windiest locations near or along north-facing shorelines (including the southshore and parts of SE LA). Will have to monitor the need for a Wind Advisory in this region, but otherwise winds will be strong over marine areas. Continuing with the 90th Percentile NBM bias for marine areas, with a NBM/90th Pct blend for inland locations as strong cold air advection dominates the area. Will have to watch if pressure gradient winds can relax enough to aid in radiational cooling processes and cool us down below blended guidance Sunday morning. Just not looking like we shut off completely looking through probabilistic wind guidance, especially given our proximity so far away from the surface high anchored to the northwest. Because of this, not as aggressive with lows but still on a cooler bias slowly lower than deterministic NBM guidance. Going into Sunday, we will start to see upper-level cirrus advecting in from the west in response to a weak shortwave approaching the area from the west-southwest over northern Mexico/Texas areas.

The big question remains is how much cloud cover will be possible late Sunday night and into Monday morning, as by this time the high pressure area settles in close enough to the northern Gulf coast to relax surface winds helping to promote radiational cooling. Should clouds be thick and low enough to develop/advect into the region, we may be more near deterministic NBM suggested values, if not a degree or two warmer. However, a closer look at model soundings shows a great deal of dry air in the H5 layer to the surface, with most of this moisture residing in the H4 to H2 typically indicating an altocumulus/cirrus deck. Just not confident enough to jump on the warmer trend entirely yet, but will stay right at or slightly lower than guidance, meaning overall, look for overnight lows a few degrees or so warmer than Sunday morning, but still chilly regardless.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday) .

Going into the new work week ahead, we remain under control of strong surface high pressure drifting east of the area, shifting surface winds out of the east with time. We will not see a steady increase of moisture until around Wednesday as deep Gulf return flow takes back over with southeasterly winds building into the surface to low-levels. Long-range guidance still hinting at the next front late next week, which will bring our next rain chances. Might be a bit more rain coverage with this one as a weak impulse/shortwave rides along zonal flow over the northern Gulf over the southward sagging front to produce widespread rain/storms. This upper-level orientation typically can be concerning and lead to the front slowing down, however a secondary impulse within large-scale troughing over the eastern US will push all of this out of here revealing another nice cool down next weekend. Ofcourse, the details remain to be seen but overall, nice weather most of next week with steady moderation in temperatures. Rain chances slowly on the upward trend in the middle to later parts of next week. KLG

AVIATION (18Z DISCUSSION) .

Expect primarily VFR conditions for most area terminals this afternoon, only exception will be for the potential of a few SCT SHRA/TSRA generally along and west of I-55, with best chances in and around KBTR where VCSH has been mentioned for now. In any shower or storm this afternoon, expect only temporary reductions in CIG's causing lower flight categories but will remain VFR outside any shower/storm activity before becoming dry this evening.

A cold front and line of SHRA/TSRA will pass through area terminals tonight into early Saturday morning, leading to a wind shift bearing 340-360 and an increase in surface winds through daybreak and into the day on Saturday. At this time, the strongest winds will be for terminals along and near north-facing shorelines including KNEW and KMSY, but all terminals will experience gusty northerly winds throughout the day with mainly SKC otherwise. KLG

MARINE .

Weak onshore flow will persist this evening and into early parts of tonight, out ahead of an approaching cold front expected to swing across the region early Saturday morning. Behind this front, strong northerly winds ranging sustained fresh to gusts near strong breeze all day Saturday. With that, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones through early Sunday morning. Waves/seas will increase throughout the day as strong offshore flow persists, around 3 to 6ft for protected waters to 6 to 10ft for outer open Gulf waters. Peak highest wave conditions are likely Saturday night through Sunday morning, steadily lowering through the rest of SUnday through Monday. Going into early next week, winds will transition out of the east at around 8-10kts, with higher gusts with no significant impacts expected through middle to later parts of next week. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 72 47 73 49 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 73 49 74 51 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 77 48 76 49 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 76 59 75 60 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 77 51 75 52 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 77 49 75 52 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-534.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi43 min WSW 6G8 78°F 84°F1015.1 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi43 min W 6G8 78°F 81°F1014.5 hPa
CARL1 23 mi43 min 80°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi43 min W 5.1G8 80°F 83°F1015.1 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi43 min 77°F 82°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi38 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F88%1014.6 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi36 minW 310.00 mi77°F77°F100%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE30E4E3SE3E5SE8SE6S5NW7N7N8NE8NE6N5SW4S6SW7SW8SW8SW8W9W10W11
1 day agoE6E5E4SE4E4SE7SE7SE7SE11SE13
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2 days agoSE5SE4SE5SE3SE4SE9SE12SE10SE9SE10SE9SE7SE7E11E9SE8E6SE6SE4SE4SE6SE5SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM CDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:11 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM CDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:41 PM CDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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